Spending likely took hit during lockdowns
Retail spending is expected to have taken a big hit during the coronavirus lockdowns in the nation's major states, which will have been a major drag on economic growth during the September quarter.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release retail trade figures for the September quarter on Thursday.
Economists' forecasts point to a hefty five per cent decline in spending during the quarter.
The economy is expected to have suffered a large contraction in the September quarter, estimated by some economists as being possibly by as much as four per cent, as a result of the lockdowns in NSW, Victoria and ACT.
All three jurisdictions have now eased restrictions.
The national accounts for the September quarter are due on December 1.
Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe said following this week's monthly board meeting that the sharp economic contraction is expected to be followed by a solid expansion in the December quarter.
"Our central scenario is for the economy to grow by around 5.5 per cent over 2022," Dr Lowe said.
This compared with a previous forecast of 4.5 per cent.
There were already positive signs for retail spending in the month of September, with the ABS reporting last week that sales rose 1.3 per cent, the first increase since May.
However, there was a mixture of results among the states based on whether restrictions were imposed, removed or extended.
The ABS will also release international trade figures for September.
Forecasts centre on a trade surplus for the month of $12.2 billion, smaller than the record $15.1 billion reached in August.
Economists expect higher coal and LNG export earnings in the month will be more than offset by a further sharp drop in iron ore prices.
