LAS VEGAS — When the objective was to avoid overreactions, almost everyone still overreacted to how poorly Aaron Rodgers and the Packers performed in Week 1.
It was ugly. Rodgers threw two interceptions and appeared uninterested as the Packers took a 38-3 beating from the Saints. It seems like so long ago.
Seven consecutive wins later, with the schedule turning to Week 9 and the regular season’s midpoint approaching, it’s time to ask if Green Bay is the top team in the NFL?
“That’s a good question because it could be three or four teams and there’s no clear-cut favorite at this point,” Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “The NFC is pretty loaded on its side with the Rams, Packers and Bucs. When ranking the top teams in the league, you have to put the Bills in the mix. If I had to pick one at this point, I would probably pick the Packers.”
BetMGM lists the Bills and Buccaneers as 5/1 co-favorites on the Super Bowl futures board, followed by the Rams (+750), Packers (9/1), Cardinals (10/1) and Cowboys (10/1). The Bills are +450 favorites at the Westgate, where the Buccaneers (6/1), Rams (7/1), Cowboys (8/1) and Packers (8/1) round out the top five.
While Super Bowls odds are influenced by a sportsbook’s liability on specific teams, a handicapper’s power ratings reflect only the numerical strength of each team. VSiN analyst Scott Kellen, who specializes in NFL handicapping, ranks his top five in this order: Rams, Packers, Bills, Buccaneers and Cowboys.
Green Bay made its boldest statement Thursday, when Rodgers was forced to work with a skeleton crew of wide receivers yet still led the Packers to a 24-21 win at Arizona. The Cardinals closed as 6.5-point favorites in their first loss of the season.
The Packers opened as underdogs again this week. Green Bay is getting 2.5 to 3 points on Sunday at Kansas City. The Chiefs had lost two of their past three going into Monday night’s game against the Giants.
“You can’t count out Aaron Rodgers or give him too many points,” veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker Vinny Magliulo said.
Still, Rodgers and the Packers were widely dismissed as Super Bowl contenders after their Week 1 debacle. Rodgers’ desire to be traded and his flirtation with retirement in the offseason contributed to the perception that Green Bay was falling apart.
“I thought the Packers might have some locker-room issues and turn on Rodgers a little bit, but I have to give them credit,” Kornegay said. “I like teams that can run the ball and the Packers are doing that.”
Rodgers has totaled 17 touchdown passes with one interception during the seven-game winning streak. Rodgers is a finesse player, but his running backs are physically punishing. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for 137 rushing yards against the Cardinals.
A week ago, Arizona and Cincinnati were among the hottest teams and stories in the league. The Cardinals’ loss meant a big win for bookmakers, but nothing in Week 8 compared to the money the books scooped up Sunday after the Jets’ 34-31 victory over the Bengals, who closed as 11.5-point favorites at BetMGM.
“That was one of the biggest wins for the house all season,” Magliulo said.
The Browns, Buccaneers, Chargers and Vikings also went down as significant favorites. Minnesota was laying 4.5 points in its 20-16 loss to the Cowboys, who improved to 7-0 against the spread. Cooper Rush, filling in for injured star Dak Prescott, passed for 325 yards and two touchdowns, including the winning 5-yard pass to Amari Cooper with 51 seconds remaining.
Rush did not quite top the performance turned in by Mike White, however. With rookie starter Zach Wilson sidelined, White stepped in and went 37-for-45 for 405 yards and three touchdowns in the Jets’ stunning upset.
When big ’dogs win, it’s usually good news for bookmakers.
“It was our best Sunday of the year,” Kornegay said. “We finally got a major upset. The Jets’ upset was huge and by far our best game of the day.”
The Titans have won four in a row — and were underdogs in the last three of those games against the Bills, Chiefs and Colts — to claim the AFC’s best record at 6-2.
The NFL can be a weird, upside-down world. On a Sunday when White and Rush emerged as Cinderella stories, Trevor Siemian came off the bench in relief of injured Jameis Winston and led New Orleans to a 36-27 victory over Tampa Bay.
Tom Brady threw two interceptions, with the last one returned for a touchdown to clinch it for the Saints with 1:24 to go.
“I don’t know how many times I’ve counted Brady out and got stung for it,” Kornegay said. “Obviously, we have a long way to go. The Bucs will be there in the end.”