New Jersey Voters Weigh Covid, Taxes as Murphy Seeks Second Term

(Bloomberg) -- New Jerseyans are deciding Tuesday whether Democratic Governor Phil Murphy should be re-elected, after a first term marked by his response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Murphy, 64, took office in 2018 with a focus on progressive issues like raising the minimum wage and legalizing recreational marijuana. During his term he also expanded paid family leave, restored women’s health funding and gave free tuition to lower-income college students. But it was his leadership during the Covid-19 outbreak in early 2020 that boosted opinions of his job performance above 70% in polls.

Eighteen months later, Murphy’s standing has declined, but he maintains positive approval. In recent polls, he led his Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli by between eight and 11 percentage points. New Jersey leans Democratic, but voters frustrated by the state’s high taxes have kept governors from that party to single terms for more than four decades. 

“There’s no guide from history to help predict what a Democratic governor’s second term would look like,” John Weingart, director of Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University, said in an interview.

Ciattarelli, 59, a former state lawmaker, was little known to voters in early 2021 and trailed Murphy in polls by as much as 26 points. He was able to whittle the margin with campaign ads hammering Murphy over the state’s expensive cost of living and record spending, and by capitalizing on some residents’ frustration with mask and vaccine mandates.

New Jersey has the highest property taxes among U.S. states. At the same time, residents are wealthier than the national average, with a median household income of $85,751. Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive, has insisted New Jerseyans are willing to pay higher taxes as long as they get “value” for their money.

Both candidates sought to appeal to the more than 2 million registered New Jersey voters who are unaffiliated with their parties.

Millionaire’s Tax

Murphy focused on middle-class residents. He pushed a millionaire’s tax through the Democratic-legislature in 2020, using the money to provide $500 rebate checks this year to 760,000 families making as much as $150,000 a year. Other initiatives included funding for child care and preschool, expanded early voting and clean energy proposals.

“In a way he is almost the victim of his success in that regard, because he delivered on all those promises.” Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University said in an interview. “You may not have loved that he delivered on those promises if you weren’t particularly a progressive voter.” 

New Jersey and Virginia are the only U.S. states holding races for governor this year. Potential wins by Murphy and former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe could provide early indicators of how Democrats will fare in the 2022 midterm elections as they try to redefine the party in a post-Donald Trump world.

At a firehouse in Bridgewater, New Jersey, on Tuesday, Ajeet Mohan, 28, said he was primarily concerned about the general lack of interest from the state’s younger voters this election.

“I was, I think, the only one on my news feed that was urging people to vote,” he said.

Murphy has tried to cast Ciattarelli as part of the Trump camp by highlighting the former Republican assemblyman’s appearance at a “Stop the Steal” rally. Ciattarelli has sought to distance himself from the former president and strike a more moderate tone around hot-button issues like abortion and vaccination. While Ciattarelli supports vaccination and Roe v. Wade, he rejects mandates and abortions after the seventh month of pregnancy.

“If Democrats prevail here on Tuesday, it’s going to be an indication that Democrats are not as wounded as Republicans are trying to make them out to be,” Rasmussen said. 

New Jersey was one of the first states to get hit hard by Covid-19 and the virus spread rapidly in the most densely populated U.S. state. The pandemic put Murphy on the national stage, as he held daily virus briefings and closed schools and businesses.

While the lockdowns helped control the spread, the state has had one of the highest death rates in the nation -- more than 300 per 100,000 residents. As of Oct. 28, nearly 28,000 Mew Jersey residents have died from Covid-19.

Murphy was criticized for the high death toll in long-term care facilities along with former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo, who resigned in August over sexual-harassment allegations. Murphy sought to distinguish himself from Cuomo, saying his administration had instructed home operators to keep Covid-19 patients separate from other residents.

Ciattarelli scored some points with residents tired of pandemic restrictions.

Michelle Haynberg, a Bridgewater resident of 27 years, cited her concern about vaccine mandates as one of the top reasons she was against Murphy. The governor has denied Republican accusations that he was waiting until after the election to impose mandates, saying any decision would be based on science and data, not politics.

“I’m really looking for no vaccine mandates even though I’m vaccinated and pro-vaccine,” said Haynberg, 53. “I don’t want to see what’s happened in some of the other states where we’re short on police officers and nurses” as a result of a pushed mandate, she said.

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