Trump’s Florida Test; Race Theory in Virginia: Election Update
(Bloomberg) -- A fiercely contested gubernatorial contest in Virginia will be decided on Tuesday, while in New Jersey an incumbent is fighting to protect his lead. Although it’s an off-year election in the U.S., both the Republican and Democratic parties have been watching the two races for implications for next year’s midterm elections that will decide control of the House and Senate.
This Election Day is the first since Joe Biden, a Democrat, became president. With his approval ratings in decline and Congress yet to approve his economic agenda, Republican victories are possible in either state.
Former Governor Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat, is neck-and-neck with Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia’s most expensive gubernatorial race ever. In New Jersey, first-term Democratic Governor Phil Murphy led by eight percentage points against the GOP’s Jack Ciattarelli, an ex-state lawmaker, in a recent poll. President Joe Biden Tuesday predicted victory in Virginia and said, “I think we’re going to win in New Jersey as well.”
Voters in New York City are likely to pick Democrat Eric Adams as their next mayor. He led his Republican opponent, Curtis Sliwa, by 40 points heading into the election.
Key stories and developments:
All times are Eastern Daylight:
Potential Risk Seen for New Jersey’s Credit Quality (3:12 p.m.)
New Jersey could see political battles over its budget if the Republican candidate for governor defeats incumbent Phil Murphy, with the potential for damage to the state’s credit quality, according to Jennifer Johnson, director of municipal bond research at Franklin Templeton.
States where the governor’s political affiliation differs from the majority of the local government often struggle with fiscal stalemates that can affect a state’s credit quality, Johnson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television Tuesday.
New Jersey’s legislature is currently controlled by Democrats.
The Garden State has been on a “good path” toward addressing past financial struggles, according to Johnson. “With Covid and a significant amount of federal aid that’s come their way, they’re actually doing quite a bit better today than they were pre-Covid,” she said. -- Akayla Gardner.
Florida Mayor Race to Test Trump’s Election Pull (2:22 p.m.)
A mayor’s race in Hialeah, Florida, will be among those worth watching as observers gauge implications from Tuesday’s races for the 2022 and 2024 elections. That’s after former President Donald Trump waded in by endorsing Esteban “Steve” Bovo, a former Miami-Dade County commissioner running in a five-candidate race.
Trump backed Bovo in early October, and issued a statement on Monday telling his supporters not to forget to vote for Bovo because, “He is fantastic!”
Trump likes to brag that his endorsement record only has two losses. That’s true for the 2020 Republican congressional primaries -- which include unopposed candidates and incumbents who rarely lose. But his record is more mixed in general and special elections.
Besides Bovo, the other Trump-endorsed candidates on the ballot on Tuesday are Republican Youngkin in Virginia; Mike Carey, the GOP candidate in a special election in Ohio’s 15th House district; and former U.S. Representative Vito Fossella, who’s running for Staten Island borough president in New York. -- Mark Niquette
Virginia’s $80 Million Race (1:30 p.m.)
The Virginia governor’s race has become 2021’s most expensive in the U.S., with a combined $80.2 million spent in advertising by campaigns and issue groups, according to an analysis by AdImpact, a media tracking firm.
The deadlocked race has “easily” surpassed other contests this year, including the $63 million mayoral election in New York City and the recent $61 million governor-recall attempt in California, according to AdImpact.
New Jersey, meanwhile, had seen about $30 million in political ad spending as of Oct. 29, according to the firm.
In Virginia, McAuliffe had a slight edge over Youngkin, with 52% of total spending favoring him. Both campaigns have spent at least $1 million a week on ads since Aug. 29, the data show. -- Jill R. Shah
Virginia Set for Historic Lieutenant-Governor Election (1:05 p.m.)
The contest for Virginia’s lieutenant governor is poised to be historic, with the winning candidate set to be the first woman -- and woman of color -- to serve in the post, according to the Associated Press. Democrat Hala Ayala and Republican Winsome Sears are facing off for the position. -- Bre Bradham
Sabato Says GOP Voters Are Motivated (1 p.m.)
Larry Sabato, founder and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said the governor’s race will be a battle of turnouts. “So far it appears that Republicans have won that battle,” Sabato said Tuesday in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Balance of Power With David Westin.”
Issues such as critical race theory are motivating Republican voters, and some Democrats who are dissatisfied with Biden are skipping the election, Sabato said. Even so, he said that McAuliffe has a shot if the Democrat’s estimates of early voting “are as good as he thinks they may be.”
Either a loss or a close victory for the Democrat -- in the wake of Biden’s big Virginia victory in 2020 -- would be “not good news” to deliver to donors as the 2022 midterms approach, Sabato said. “How do we justify asking you for tens of millions of dollars when it does not look good for us to hold either” chamber in Congress, he said. -- Simone Silvan
Murphy Taking Nothing for Granted in New Jersey (12:45 p.m.)
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said he is not taking anything for granted despite an eight percentage point lead over his Republican opponent in polls before Tuesday’s election.
“Our work is not done, we sill have a ways to travel,” Murphy said in Newark as he met with campaign volunteers and local Mayor Ras Baraka.
As the candidates try to secure final votes there have been scattered reports of polling stations encountering issues with some of the new machines that have been installed in certain counties.
Murphy said, “It is my understanding that they have been largely addressed,” adding “I’m told that there were incidents, but that they were not widespread.” -- Skylar Woodhouse
Minneapolis Votes for Mayor, Police System (12:25 p.m.)
The race to lead Minneapolis is expected to be a toss-up as incumbent Democrat Jacob Frey battles against a field of 17 contenders in an election featuring ranked-choice voting. Minneapolis became one of first major cities to adopt the voting system in 2006.
Opponents argue that Frey, who’s running for a second term, failed to lead the city to recovery in the aftermath of the killing of George Floyd and the protests for racial equality that it triggered -- not just in the Midwest metropolis, but nationwide.
A key ballot initiative could replace the city’s Police Department with a new Department of Public Safety. The proposal would remove sole control of the department by the mayor’s office and abolish minimum-funding requirements. Frey opposes that proposal, although his administration does advocate for reform. Sheila Nezhad and Kate Knuth, both considered leading candidates, support the change. -- Akayla Gardner
Critical Race Theory Debate Reflects Pandemic Frustrations (12:10 p.m.)
Conversations about how to discuss race in K-to-12 education are the result of an undercurrent of frustration from schooling at home during the pandemic, according to a senior adviser to outgoing Virginia Governor Ralph Northam.
Glenn Youngkin, the Republican candidate to succeed Northam, has tapped into that frustration, Mark Bergman, a strategic partner at AL Media, a progressive creative firm, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Whether that is enough for him to overcome the Democratic numbers of this state is yet to be seen,” Bergman said.
Youngkin, who was once chief executive officer of Carlyle Group Inc., has campaigned on a pledge to ban critical race theory in the classroom. Parents, educators and politicians across the nation have been caught in a contentious debate about the concept, which has been traditionally taught at the university level. -- Akayla Gardner
Republican NYC Mayoral Candidate Sliwa Casts Vote ‘Catless’ (11:10 a.m.)
The campaign of Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee running against Eric Adams in the New York City mayoral race, took to Twitter to question a “No Pets in Pollsite” sign when the candidate voted Tuesday morning.
Before he voted, Sliwa was seen holding his cat “Gizmo” in a photo tweeted by New York Times City Hall bureau chief Emma Fitzsimmons. Election officials requested that the candidate to take off his jacket -- which had his name on it -- without success, and wouldn’t let him bring the cat inside, according to Fitzsimmons. Sliwa voted “catless,” his campaign tweeted. -- Bre Bradham
Ex-Mets Manager Valentine Vies for Mayor in Connecticut (10:00 a.m.)
Bobby Valentine, a former manager of the New York Mets baseball team, cast his vote Tuesday morning in the first election where his name was on the ballot. Valentine is running as an unaffiliated mayoral candidate in Stamford, Connecticut.
“I voted! Now it’s your turn,” Valentine tweeted. The former baseball player is promising to advocate for small businesses and use his managerial skills to run Connecticut’s second-largest city. The race is considered highly competitive as Valentine competes with Democratic State Representative Caroline Simmons, who upset the two-term incumbent mayor in the primary. -- Akayla Gardner
New York City Sees 222,000 Early, Absentee Votes (9:41 a.m.)
Roughly 220,000 people have already voted early or absentee in New York City’s mayoral election, according to the metropolis’s Board of Elections Executive Director Mike Ryan.
Ryan was on hand at the same Brooklyn elementary school in Crown Heights where front-runner Eric Adams was making an appearance. “There has been nothing systemic or any major issues that we’re dealing with this morning,” Ryan said.
Meantime, Adams fist-bumped a baby as he conversed with voters. Zulaykha Simon, a Brooklyn resident, said she was going to vote for Adams, but added he must do more than just photo ops and showing up at events. “A lot of people have been displaced from this community,” she said. “We need home buying opportunities in this neighborhood for people.” -- Fola Akinnibi
Republican Tours New Jersey Diners in Final Push (9:35 a.m.)
The Republican candidate for New Jersey governor, Jack Ciattarelli, planned a morning of touring the Garden State’s eateries in a final drive for votes in what’s turned out as a competitive race.
Ciattarelli, a former state lawmaker, begins at the Randazzo Pastry Shop & Bakery in Raritan, in northern New Jersey, before going on to a pair of diners in nearby Bridgewater Township.
First-term Democratic Governor Phil Murphy led by eight percentage points in a recent poll, but frustration over high taxes has kept Democrats from winning second terms as governor for more than four decades.
De Blasio Eyes Governorship After Adams Succession (9:28 a.m.)
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, who is term limited, said he was looking forward to handing the keys to City Hall over to Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, who is heavily favored to win Tuesday’s mayor’s race. De Blasio said he expects Adams to continue with policies that he championed -- universal Pre-K, affordable housing and policing changes -- and “take it to the next level.”
As for what’s next for de Blasio, the outgoing mayor has filed initial paperwork for a committee called “New Yorkers for a Fair Future” that sets him up for a run for governor.
Democrats Kathy Hochul, who took over the governor’s mansion after Andrew Cuomo resigned over sexual harassment claims, New York Attorney General Letitia James and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams have already declared their intentions to run in the 2022 race.
De Blasio declined to go so far as to declare his candidacy, but said he planned to continue in public service in the city and state. When asked on CNN if he wasn’t ruling out a run on Tuesday morning, he told viewers to “draw your own conclusions.” -- Shelly Banjo
More Than 700,000 New Jerseyans Have Voted Early (8:57 a.m.)
Even before Election Day, more than 730,000 New Jerseyans had voted. This is the state’s first election with early in-person voting. Residents were able to cast their ballots at certain polling places from Oct. 23-31.
As of Tuesday morning, 732,127 mail-in and in-person votes had been cast, according to the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics. That’s more than a third of the total votes cast in the 2017 race for governor.
The early-voting spread between Democrats and Republicans is about 59% to 23%, according to Rebovich. That’s about 260,000 more Democrats than Republicans casting their votes.
Vote-by-mail ballots can be returned until polls close at 8 p.m. -- Stacie Sherman
Tearful Eric Adams Casts Ballot as New York City Polls Open (8:09 a.m.)
The front-runner to become New York City’s next mayor, Eric Adams, saw emotion overcome him as he cast his vote at an elementary school on Tuesday morning. He cried as he recalled accompanying his mother, who passed away earlier this year, to a polling site in 1977.
“We won already,” he said with a framed photo of his mother, alluding to his success in rising from police officer to Brooklyn Borough president and now favorite to become mayor of the U.S. financial capital. “I’m not supposed to be here.”
Adams was among the first few dozen people to vote at P.S. 81 in Brooklyn’s Bedford-Stuyvesant neighborhood Tuesday in a contest he’s expected to win handily against his Republican opponent. -- Fola Akinnibi
Polls Open in Virginia, New York, New Jersey: (6:00 a.m.)
Although candidates showing up at their local polling place is an Election Day tradition, both McAuliffe and Youngkin have already voted, according to their campaigns. Adams, however, plans to vote at Public School 81 in Brooklyn, his campaign said.
Polls opened in Virginia, New Jersey and New York at 6 a.m.
The candidates campaigned into Monday evening, with Youngkin holding a rally in Leesburg, the county seat of Loudoun County. The county, a Washington suburb, has become a battleground in the race. McAuliffe held a Monday rally in Richmond, the state capital.
Although Adams, the Brooklyn borough president and a retired police captain, is heavily favored to win in New York, he led a rally in Harlem on Monday evening. Among his prominent supporters was state Attorney General Letitia James, who last week announced her candidacy for governor, something she reminded voters about at the rally. -- John Harney
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