Editor’s note: This article will be updated through the remainder of Group 2 Super 12 stage at the World Cup depending on how the scenarios play out.

It never is a good sign when the Net Run Rate calculators are out early in a tournament for a team. Such has been India’s nightmare start to the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2021 that things are looking bleak just after two matches. Virat Kohli and Co are on the brink of an early exit, prompting the wrong kind of throwback to 2007 for Indian cricket team fans. Instead of another triumph to celebrate, it would seem a World Cup will enter its business end without the game’s global powerhouse.

So, after India’s defeat New Zealand (and a hammering at that), what are the scenarios the team can still hope to finish in the top two and progress?

First things first, here’s how the Group 2 Super 12 table looks like (after India vs New Zealand):

Remaining matches in Group 2: 

2 Nov: Pakistan v Namibia, Abu Dhabi (1930 hrs)

3 Nov: New Zealand v Scotland, Dubai (1530 hrs); India v Afghanistan, Abu Dhabi (1930 hrs)

5 Nov: New Zealand v Namibia, Sharjah (1530 hrs); India v Scotland, Dubai (1930 hrs)

7 Nov: New Zealand v Afghanistan, Abu Dhabi (1530 hrs): Pakistan v Scotland, Sharjah (1930 hrs)

8 Nov: India v Namibia, Dubai (1930 hrs)

Pakistan

With three wins for three matches, Pakistan have one foot (and four more toes) in the semi-finals. A win against Namibia will put them through safely and they will be on course for topping the group with five wins out of five when they take on Scotland in their final match.

Afghanistan

Thanks to their penchant for batting first and winning big, Afghanistan have a sensational NRR of +3.097 after their two big wins and one close defeat against Pakistan. At this stage, it would not be an exaggeration to say they are the second favourites to progress. And if they win their two remaining matches, Afghanistan will be in the semi-finals as no other team can reach 8 points.

Problem for Mohammad Nabi and Co of course, is that they face New Zealand and India which are, on paper, tough games. A win in either of those matches (preferably NZ) should see Afghanistan progress as their NRR is going to come in handy. They should however be wary of not suffering a big defeat if they do end up losing one of the two remaining fixtures.

Afghanistan could potentially still be involved in a three-way tie, as explained below in India’s section.

New Zealand

The Black Caps too have everything under control. Win their remaining three matches, two of those against Scotland and Namibia, and Kane Williamson and Co will be on their way to the business end of yet another ICC event.

While Namibia and Scotland are their next two opponents, and have shown that the Super 12 quality is perhaps a bit too high for them, it is increasingly looking like the match on November 7 between New Zealand and Afghanistan will be a virtual quarter-final. (If India lose to Afghanistan before that, it will be a literal quarter-final, where the winner progresses).

The NRR is quite good for the Kiwis (+0.765) and can be improved further in their next two matches. Should they then lose to Afghanistan on the final day, the three-way tie is possbile, as explained below in India’s section.

India

Right then, how does it look for India? Short answer: bleak, but not impossible.

Long answer...

For starters, India’s next match against Afghanistan is make or break. If they lose, they are out. No NRRs, no scenarios. (And the way things are going for the two teams, it is not completely out of the window).

The other massively unlikely scenario is for either Scotland or Namibia to pull off a miracle against New Zealand, who then go on to lose against Afghanistan also to finish on 4 or fewer points. If pigs could fly...

So, on to the more feasible scenario: India will have to hope for a three-way tie on six points with New Zealand and Afghanistan. That is most likely to happen only if Afghanistan beat New Zealand after losing to India.

Now, the problem for India is their NRR. And the nature of defeats against Pakistan and New Zealand could still be the decisive reason Kohli’s men don’t progress. After being outplayed in both their matches, the NRR for India went from a poor -0.973 to a dismal -1.609. Closer defeats could have helped... but now they not only have to beat Afghanistan but do so in a manner that props their own NRR while dragging Afghanistan’s down.

For instance, a 60-run win against Afghanistan for India to get into the positive with a NRR of +0.080 and that would still be enough only to bring Nabi and Co down to +1.564. And from there, India will have to bat first and win big (batting second makes it more difficult) against Scotland and Namibia to boost their NRR further. India will also have to hope, additionally, that New Zealand don’t win too big against Namibia and Scotland.

So... beat Afghanistan comprehensively, trounce Scotland, hope New Zealand lose to Afghanistan and also keep their NRR manageable.... and if all that happens, on the final day Group stage action, know what the equation is for them to defeat Namibia.

Scotland, Namibia

The two teams have already had memorable tournaments... and Indian fans will be dearly hoping they can bring their A game against New Zealand to at the very least make them close matches or by some miracle, pull off an upset.