N.J.’s Murphy Holds 8-Point Lead; Atlanta Mayor: Election Update

(Bloomberg) -- Candidates in Virginia and New Jersey, the only two U.S. states holding gubernatorial races this year, battled for last-minute voters with the election a day away. Democrats are fighting to hang onto control in both states.

The races are the first major ones since Democrat Joe Biden became president. With Biden’s approval ratings in decline, Republican wins are possible in either state. Currently, 27 Republicans and 23 Democrats are governors in the U.S. The race is closer in Virginia, where incumbent Ralph Northam is barred by term limits from running again. Democratic former Governor Terry McAuliffe is neck-and-neck with Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia’s most expensive gubernatorial race ever.

In New Jersey, first-term Democratic Governor Phil Murphy led by eight percentage points against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state lawmaker, in the most recent poll. New Jersey voters lean Democratic, but frustration over high taxes has kept Democrats from winning second terms as governor for more than four decades.

New York City, meanwhile, is likely to pick Democrat Eric Adams as its next mayor. Adams led Republican Curtis Sliwa by 40 points heading into the election.

Other election stories:

• Atlanta’s Crowded Election Pits Former Mayor Versus ‘Anyone But’
• NYC Business Leaders Wonder Which Side of Eric Adams They’ll Get
• Amazon Cools on Seattle, Businesses Look to New Mayor for Fixes
• Democrats Bank on High Early Vote to Win Virginia Governor Race
• Poorest Big U.S. City Readies to Decide Its Post-Pandemic Future

Election-Eve Poll in New Jersey

Murphy led Ciattarelli, 50% to 42%, in the Rutgers-Eagleton poll released Monday. The margin between the two candidates in recent polls was between six and 11 points.

“The big picture points to a sizable margin for Murphy that – despite narrowing throughout the campaign – will be difficult for Ciattarelli to overcome in the final days,” Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, said in a statement.

In the Oct. 21-27 Rutgers-Eagleton poll of 901 registered voters, half of New Jerseyans had a favorable view of the governor, while 35% had an unfavorable one. For Ciattarelli, 33% of respondents had a favorable impression and 34% had an unfavorable view. About 13% didn’t know who Ciattarelli was.

Almost half of respondents identified themselves as moderate, with 25% saying they are liberal and 24% saying they are conservative.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Ohio Special Election

Biden waded into a special congressional election in Ohio on the eve of Tuesday’s voting, backing Democrat Allison Russo over her Republican opponent who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump in a district that favors Republicans.

“She’s the kind of leader we need as we build back an economy that creates good-paying jobs, delivers more affordable health care, and puts middle-class families first,” Biden said in a statement provided by Russo’s campaign on Monday.

Former Vice President Mike Pence campaigned in the 15th District on Sunday for Republican Mike Carey, a coal industry consultant who won the GOP nomination in a crowded field to replace retired Representative Steve Stivers, after Trump endorsed him and did two tele-rallies for him.

Trump Inserts Himself Into Virginia Race, Again

McAuliffe has worked hard to make the Virginia race all about Donald Trump, who is unpopular with the suburban voters who will determine this election.

Once again, Trump has obliged him.

On Monday morning, the former president released a statement, which quickly circulated on social media, endorsing Youngkin for a seventh time and attacking McAuliffe as a “low-life politician.”

The statement appeared to be a response to an ad from the anti-Trump Lincoln Project that tried to goad Trump into getting involved by arguing that Youngkin was not supporting him strongly enough.

McAuliffe pounced, releasing a 211-word statement with the name Trump in it 10 times -- twice as many times as it referenced Youngkin himself.

Trump will also hold an 8 p.m. tele-rally Monday in support of Youngkin.

Ciattarelli Hits the Jersey Diners

On Monday, Ciattarelli had eight stops on his itinerary, including the landmark Tick Tock Diner in Clifton. The candidate will finish Monday at the Basilone Statue in Raritan.

Murphy was scheduled to hold a virus briefing Monday afternoon in Trenton. His campaign events included two national television appearances and an evening rally in South Orange.

Ciattarelli took advantage of New Jersey’s early voting law on Oct. 29, casting his ballot in Hillsborough. Murphy voted on Oct. 23, the first day of early in-person voting, in Long Branch.

As of Oct. 30, 622,593 people had voted early, with Democrats making up 59% of those cast and Republicans 23%, according to the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics. 

New Jersey has 6.6 million registered voters -- 2.6 million Democrats, 1.5 million Republicans and 2.4 million unaffiliated with a party, according to state election data.

McAuliffe, Youngkin Barnstorm Virginia in Final Day 

In a sign of the close race for Virginia governor, McAuliffe and Youngkin will follow similar itineraries on Monday.

McAuliffe, who is seeking a second non-consecutive term as governor, and Youngkin, the former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group, will both hold last-minute rallies in Roanoke, Virginia Beach, Richmond and northern Virginia.

The final polls have shown McAuliffe’s once-solid lead evaporate, with the race essentially tied and some polls showing Youngkin ahead for the first time.

In October, McAuliffe said Biden’s low approval ratings were causing “headwinds” in the race, but in an interview with Chuck Todd on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday, McAuliffe said national political issues were not a problem.

“When I travel around Virginia, they’re not asking about what’s going on in Washington,” he said. “What I get asked about everyday, Chuck, is Covid.”

At a previous rally for Youngkin that Trump also phoned into, attendees gave the Pledge of Allegiance to a flag that was at the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.

Youngkin, who has tried to maintain a delicate balance between Trump’s supporters and suburban voters who dislike him, called the pledge “weird and wrong.”

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