The past few weeks have been difficult times for the now union territory (and erstwhile state) of Kashmir. Since early October this year, more than 30 innocent civilians have lost their lives, as violence gripped the disputed valley.
The overarching opinion in political circles seems to be that the recent killings are the consequence of an increasing sense of fear regarding demographic changes by the central government.
“Political violence in India is intimately tied to a demographic imagination […] In Kashmir, the fear of altering demography after the abrogation of Article 370 has been palpably real,” wrote Pratap Bhanu Mehta, for the Indian Express.
There is also a feeling that the situation in Kashmir is linked to Afghanistan. Manoj Joshi wrote the following for the Indian Cable:
“The killings are aimed at using the Taliban victory in Afghanistan to give new impetus to the separatist movement. They seek to undermine the government’s claim that the scrapping of Article 370 and removal of statehood have brought normalcy, and ensure the (half-hearted) official initiatives to resettle Kashmiri pandits in the valley and encourage external investment come to nought.”
Gautam Mukhopadhyaya, former Indian ambassador to multiple countries, said that:
“I am worried that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the military takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban with the support of Pakistan will give a fillip to radical Islamist sentiments and anti-Indian sentiments in J&K. It is not yet clear though if the recent attacks against soft minority targets is related to that or not. Either way, we should be on guard from a security point of view and at the same time address the political alienation in the state.”
Experts are divided on whether or not Kashmir is returning to the horrific militancy phase of the 1990s.
Tara Kartha, who served in India’s National Security Secretariat, does not think that Kashmir is returning to the ’90s. She said:
“The ground realities have shifted considerably. The separatists have lost their edge, and the politicians have largely, lost credibility among the people. But precisely given this lack of alternatives, there is a likelihood of more youth drifting into militancy.”
Either way, militancy in Kashmir is far from over… and it has a long, brutal winter ahead!