The modern world order had seen different shades, dictated by successive imperialist European Powers from 19th century to the 21st. The polemical world got splinted ideological ground, which was categorized as a left and right. The communist regime was put into the category of left and the capitalist route was identified as right. Both amassed whopping arms and ammunition across the world, they also tried to create a bull fight scenario among their satellite’s states. The post-second world order was bloody and very disturbing. The end of the cold war had seen more dictatorial trends and unruly behavior of America. Iraq, Libya, Myanmar, and Afghanistan were systematically attacked and weakened. The new trend of the 21st Century world order talked about changing axis from west to east, is not very different from its earlier format. Emerging China is using the same methods and techniques which were being used by Britain and America. The Chinese approach during the pandemic has shown how China could be reckless and dangerous to world peace and existence to humanity!

The Hindu World Order is neither left nor right. It consists of both. RSS Sarkaryavas (general secretary) Daatatrey Hosabale said that geographical, religious, and political divides of left and right and East and West have blurred, dimmed, and melted. The integral manifestation of Hindu world order is based on the essence of humanity, which was shown by India during the 1971 Liberation of Bangladesh massacres when thousands of refuges took shelter in India. It is based on the 1988 proposal of Rajiv Gandhi for the elimination of nuclear bombs from the world. There are many more examples when the lakhs of people from across the world, with different religions, took a dip in the spiritual Kumbh in Prayag Raj or Haridwar for the realization of common existence. The same is the truth of realization of ‘One Sun, One World and One Grid’. The idea of India is the idea of humanity, not merely the geographical confinement of a particular community or people.

What is important to understand is that the Hindu culture of the Indian subcontinent is the umbilical cord, it brings them together. The rest of the cultural currents are external. They create fissures than unity and solidarity. India-Bangladesh relations of last ten years is model to showcase in the Indian subcontinent.

In fact, recent India-Bangladesh relations have bloomed in Hindu culture. Therefore, it becomes a necessity to channelize the Hindu textures of making a peaceful world order. To begin with, South Asia could be a starting point. The question could be asked who are the people scared of booming ties between the two countries? India-Bangladesh relations are deeper than any other strategic partnership and a “role model” for ties between two neighboring countries, as said by the Indian Foreign Secretary, Harsh Vardhan Shringla. “On humanitarian, political and diplomatic facets of the 1971 war, Indian Air Force played a key role in supporting the struggle of Mukti Vahini,” Shringla further stated. India’s humanitarian response to the refugee issue during that time to be one of the most sophisticated and empathetic in contemporary history. India Bangladesh relations have been strengthened through the first neighborhood policy and look act policy. It is equally important to acknowledge that Modi’s first foreign visit since the pandemic was to Dhaka at the invitation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to commemorate the golden jubilee, which is the testimony to the highest priorities of Indian policy.

South Asia has a very complex geography and mixed cultures. The historians called it a melting pot of different cultural heritage like Hindu, Islam, Christianity, Malay and Chinese. Largely it is made of Hindu culture. Not merely South Asia but more than 54 countries spanning from Himalayas to the Indian Ocean were born out of Hindu culture. The archival evidence is the testimony of this truth. The systematic cultural looting and burning have created a larger space for foreign religions and ideas. This continued unabated. The post-independent India was heavily burdened with western piggy knowledge and continued to rejoice in the colonial tests in the post-colonial era. During the Cold War, American think tanks structured our syllabi and textbooks. The weakening of Indian ethos is being categorized as an unscientific and unrealistic story.

The new regime started to weave a new India to re-establish its lost glory. While understanding India’s cultural history through the prism of world politics, found the western-centric cold war period was in complete denial of Hindu culture. It was easily shrugged off like dust. With the beginning of the 21st Century, the axis of power shifted from Europe to Asia. In Asia, there were two major contenders of the Asian World Order. Once again China adopted the same tricks and methods to weaken the Hindu culture in the Indian neighbourhood. Whether it was Bangladesh or Pakistan, Nepal or Afghanistan, China used to demean the Hindu culture. That is how Nepal PM was lured to pronounce Ram Mandir and Ayodhya are in Nepal. It is not merely the number of Hindus drastically declined from Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh, but Hindu ethos and culture were ruthlessly uprooted by successive regimes in Indian neighbourhoods. The right to property acts in Bangladesh forced the Hindu populace to flee from there.

The crucial question is how to get done? What India should do to deter the inimical factors which are dismantling Hindu culture in the 21st Century? Firstly, merely flavors of the soft power are not enough. Even the father of the soft power concept Joseph Nye has also modified his ideas of soft power. Therefore, when he transformed soft power into smart power, he mixed soft power with hard power. Hard power is all about military strength, economic baggage, and political will. India needs to pursue a hard power to expand and restore Hindu culture in the Indian subcontinent. Hard power does not augur a perpetual conflict or war with the neighbors. But some carrot and stick policy if it is being challenged. Secondly, a new brigade of intellectuals needs to be identified. 50 years of research and seminars in and around the world on Indian culture, must be reviewed, most of them deliberated overtly and covertly undermining the salience of Hindu culture. Surprisingly, most of these seminars and workshops were funded by Indian funding agencies like the University Grants Commission, Indian Councils of Social Science Research (ICSSR) ICHR, and a couple of others. Under the mandate of the new education policy, all these funding agencies should take up the challenges to regain Hindu culture. Thirdly, people to people contacts should be initiated not merely with South Asian countries but with almost 54 countries where imprints of Indian culture were deeply ingrained. Lastly, universities and institutes must play a lead role in creating a mindset of understanding and professing Hindu culture.

There is no doubt that the wave of Hindu culture in the subcontinent will bring prosperity and development. That is the spirit of the ‘First Neighborhood Policy’. After becoming an independent country, Bangladesh demanded satellite data from India in 1972, which was blatantly denied on the ground of national security. In 2014 while taking the oath of the Prime Ministership, Narendra Modi advocated for a joint satellite for South Asian countries. This change of mindset needs to be aggressively pursued. The weaving of Hindu culture will cement the fissures slippages of diplomatic trust deficit.

The writer is a professor of political science at IGNOU. Views expressed are writer’s personal.

India’s humanitarian response to the refugee issue in the past has been one of the most sophisticated and empathetic responses in contemporary history. Indo-Bangla relations have been strengthened through the first neighborhood policy and look act policy. It is equally important to acknowledge that PM Modi’s first foreign visit since the pandemic was to Dhaka at the invitation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to commemorate the golden jubilee of Bangladesh which is testimony to the highest priority that Indian policy gives to that country.

The shameful comment by Pakistan’s Interior Minister, Sheikh Rasheed that his country’s victory in the ongoing world cup against India was the triumph of Islam, has needlessly vitiated the sporting atmosphere. The minister further added that the outcome demonstrated the supremacy of Islam over other religions. Rasheed is an experienced politician and should know that Sports and Religion do not go hand in hand. The game in Dubai was played by both the teams in a competitive but friendly atmosphere. The players respect each other and after the match, Indian skipper Virat Kohli congratulated both the openers by hugging them.

The Pakistani players are in awe of many Indian legends such as Kohli and Mahender Singh Dhoni and some of them got their photos clicked with their cricketing heroes. Even in the past, despite a fierce rivalry, the players have always been most dignified on and off the field. Therefore, it was in an extremely poor taste that Sheikh Rasheed should have said what he did. By his flawed logic, the inability of sportspersons from his country to win medals in the Olympics was the defeat of Islam. How ridiculous. The India-Pakistan confrontation on the field has always been a high voltage event where emotions run high and there is tremendous pressure on players to perform. But it does not mean that they should behave in an unbecoming manner.

Pakistan has many gifted sportsmen and in the World Cup, it was Cricket that won and not any religion. In fact, the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) should ask the ICC to seek an explanation from the Pakistan Cricket Board to clarify if it supported the Interior Minister’s irresponsible comments. Any country which brings in religion, colour, caste or any such thing in the sphere of sports needs to be dealt with accordingly. For many years, the South African team which had such iconic players such as Barry Richards, Mike Procter, the Pollock brothers amongst others, could not compete with many Test playing sides because of the apartheid issue.

Subsequently the matter was resolved and the South African team ended its deplorable policy. The South Africans are one of the most competitive teams in world cricket today. Pakistan has also suffered as a test playing team because most countries do not wish to travel to that country in view of the alarming law and order situation. Lately, New Zealand cancelled its tour. The Indian team is also under a lot of pressure not to play with Pakistan and the bilateral exchanges have not been held for a long time. Many gifted Pakistani players have not been able to participate in the IPL because they have been barred due to their country’s support of terrorism from across the border. Imran Khan has been the most celebrated Captain of his country and is currently the Prime Minister. He should pull up his minister for infringing the spirit of the game.

Pakistani commentators should also act objectively and comments such as defeat of infidels are unnecessary. Such people should be banned from commenting or moderating at the award ceremonies. The Dubai match showed Pakistan’s complete domination over India on that particular day but it does not mean that the Indian team would not strike back and win the game in future. Cricket is a gentleman’s game. Not for the likes of Sheikh Rasheed to spoil by his reckless and anachronistic observations.

Crude Oil prices have been rising steadily since the beginning of 2021 when Brent Crude was trading at about $52 per barrel, buoyed both by hopes of improving demand due to economic recoveries across geographies, as well as supply cuts by key Oil-producing countries. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) extended supply cuts made in 2020 when crude Oil prices had reached a low of under $19 per barrel. Speaking of India, the prices of petrol and diesel in India are benchmarked to a 15-day rolling average of the international prices of petroleum products.Global financial major Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to reach $110-per-barrel by early next year, a 30% jump from the current levels of almost $84. “We estimate that global Oil demand has surpassed 99 million barrels per day (mb/d) and will shortly hit its pre-Covid level of 100 mb/d, as Asia rebounds after the Delta wave,” Goldman Sachs’ analysts said in a recent note. In addition, the switch from expensive gas to a relatively cheaper Oil, may be contributing at least 1 million barrels to the recent surge in Oil demand with current gas forwards incentivising this through winter. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said that Oil price was still not high enough to generate demand destruction, given falling energy intensity in developed markets and rising income levels in emerging markets. “Specifically, we estimate that the 2022 Brent price would need to reach $110/bbl to balance the deficit we expect through Q1 2022 via the demand side alone,” said Goldman.

Fuel prices have risen not only in India, but elsewhere too. The average retail price for gasoline in the USA jumped well past $3 per gallon in 2021, the highest it has been since 2014. California saw highest prices at over $4 per gallon, with reports of global Oil demand outstripping supply in the order of anywhere between 6.5 lakh to 9.5 lakh barrels per day, going forward. The recent bull rally in 2021 in global Oil prices therefore, from a low of $19 a barrel in April 2020, to a high of over $85 in mid-October 2021, effectively means, Crude Oil prices have risen by an unbelievable 347% in the last 18 odd months. Since more than 80% of India’s Oil demand is met via imports, any surge in global Brent Crude price, obviously has a sizeable impact on India too, as both petrol and diesel are now fully deregulated.

India’s ignorant opposition has often alleged that under the inept, Congress led UPA-2, despite elevated Brent prices globally, local fuel prices were much lower. Well, that is because fuel prices were only partially decontrolled under the inefficient, Congress- led United Progressive Alliance (UPA-2). It was Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA government that took the unpopular but bold and long overdue decision of decontrolling Diesel prices too in October 2014.Hence, comparing fuel price movements under the Modi government,with the erstwhile, lethargic, Congress regime, is unfair. Also, don’t forget that the previous, Congress led UPA government took loans by purchasing Oil bonds of Rs 1.44 lakh crore, that the Narendra Modi led, NDA government inherited and paid for. Not only this, the Modi government also paid Rs 70,000 crore on the interest part alone, which means, in total, the Modi government discharged debt obligations of the earlier Congress regime, by repaying over Rs 2 lakh crore. To nail the misinformation surrounding domestic fuel pricing, it is best to look at a real time, example. Assume petrol prices at Rs 100 per litre. Of this Rs 100, the Basic rate is Rs 32.97 per litre; Central government tax is Rs 21.58; State government VAT, surcharges and levies are Rs 41.67,per litre; Distributor margins work out to Rs 3.78,per litre. Clearly, it is not the Central government, but State government taxes that are the biggest component of petrol prices and also the biggest reason,for the steep rise in domestic fuel prices. Effectively speaking,State government taxes account for 41.67% of the final petrol price, whereas Central government taxes account for only 21.58% of the final petrol price per litre. Hence, before pointing fingers at the Modi government, opposition leaders like a clueless Rahul Gandhi,whose party,the Congress, is a vital part of the ruling alliance in Maharashtra, would do well to do some number crunching! In fact, along with VAT, disaster management cess and highway liquor ban cess, the net share of State taxes in fuel prices in Maharashtra is almost 50% and ditto is the case with Rajasthan— another Congress ruled State, with the highest VAT.

India imports almost no petrol or diesel. It imports Crude. But the price we pay for fuel is based largely on Import Parity Price (IPP) or the price we would pay, if India were to be actually importing petrol or diesel. India’s export of petrol and diesel is more than imports. India’s total imports in 2017-18 were worth Rs 744 million while total exports were far higher at Rs 23,858 million. Fuel is basically,priced as if it is imported.Oil refiners, who make these products in India, are paid what is called a Refinery Gate Price (RGP) based on the Trade Parity Price (TPP) which is a weighted average of the Import Parity Price and the Export Parity Price (EPP). IPP is the price importers would pay if they actually imported the product. So,it includes not just the cost of the fuel itself, but also freight charges, insurance, customs duty and port charges. EPP is what somebody actually exporting the product would get. IPP has an 80% weight and EPP only 20% in the TPP.

This method of calculating the price to be paid to refiners means that whenever international Oil prices rise, they get a windfall. That is because Customs is an ‘ad valorem’ rate or a percentage of the basic value unlike a specific duty which would remain fixed irrespective of basic price.Since customs duty is 2.5% of imported price, it goes up in absolute terms as the basic price does. So, at $100 per barrel, the duty on a barrel of petrol would be $2.5 while at $200 per barrel it would be $5. India has to import 80% of the raw material (Crude Oil), so Export Parity could not be an option and hence an 80:20 trade parity pricing (TPP),was implemented, in line with the C.Rangarajan report.

Interestingly, customs on products is 2.5% but this is applicable only on 80% of the output, effectively making it just 2%.

There are several taxes on domestic Crude such as National Calamity Duty and State Entry Tax. These are largely absorbed by the public sector Oil refiners. So after adjusting these, the effective customs duty is minimal. Effectively speaking, the burden of Customs duty is largely borne by public sector refining companies and hence to allege that refiners make abnormal gains,if global Crude prices go up,is absolutely false. To cut a long story short, with the State-level value added tax (VAT) and Sales tax being levied on an Ad-Valorem basis, tax revenues of States from petrol and diesel, rise in tandem with the increase in their prices. Elevated fuel prices, however, do not however, help the Centre much, as the Excise duties on petrol and diesel levied by the Central Government, are specific in nature, like flat rates, so whether petrol is Rs 70 or Rs 100 per litre,is largely meaningless, for Central government from a revenue standpoint. On the contrary, the biggest killing is actually made by States, who charge Ad-Valorem rates and higher the price of petrol and diesel, higher the taxes earned by States.

Again,it is nothing but sheer hypocrisy to talk of rising petrol and diesel prices,but not give the Modi government credit for the fact that compared to January 2014, when LPG gas cylinder prices went to as high as Rs 1270-1290 per cylinder, average price range of a LPG gas cylinder was between Rs 673-710,in 2019. LPG cylinder prices, in fact, fell to a low of Rs 594 in 2020. True, LPG prices have risen recently to between Rs 884-926 per cylinder. But do note that globally, propane and butane prices in the last one year have risen from $375 per tonne, to as much as a massive $800 per tonne, which is a huge,100% plus, increase. Also, do note that while average retail inflation in the last seven years under the Modi government is 4.8%,that number was 7.8% in the last seven years of Congress led UPA.

Recently there has also been a surge in edible Oil prices, globally. Since India imports between 55-70% of edible Oils like palm oil, soyabean oil and sunflower oil, domestic cooking oil prices have risen too. Argentina, one of the biggest producers of soyabean, faced huge crop losses after a severe drought. Malaysia and Indonesia curtailed exports of palm oil to India and other countries, after a big rise in local demand, due to a change in bio-fuel norms in these countries. Ukraine and Russia, amongst the largest producers of sunflower oil, also faced a debilitating drought, leading to a sharp surge in international prices, of sunflower oil.

The good news is that the area under Oilseeds has expanded in India in recent times and output is expected to be higher than the previous year. The total acreage under Oilseeds increased by 18 lakh hectares or 10% during the 2020 Kharif season, aided by the increased availability of labour, after migrants workers returned to their home in rural areas. The acreage for groundnut rose 30% and for soyabean by about 7%. Similarly, the acreage under oilseeds in the 2020-21 Rabi season was up by 4%. Mustard is the primary oilseed grown during the winter cropping season and the area under the crop is also up 5%. According to the third advance estimates of production for the 2020-21 agriculture season, oilseed output expanded by 10% to 365.65 lakh tonnes, with the soyabean crop rising almost 20% and mustard by 10%. Hence, cooking Oil prices should come down, going forward.

Allocation of Rs 2.3 lakh crore for health is a 137% jump in 2021-22, over 2020-21. Again, Rs 1.18 lakh crore for road infrastructure, Rs 1.10 lakh crore for railways, an outlay of Rs 3.6 lakh crore for the power sector and Rs 16.5 lakh crore towards agriculture credit outlay in the Union Budget, showcase how the Modi government is spending money judiciously, towards a healthier, fitter and better India. Defence allocation at Rs 4.78 lakh crore,which is up 19% in FY22,over FY21,is aimed at a more safer and secure India. Hence,allegations that resources raised via fuel taxes are being frittered away, are absolutely baseless.

Contrary to falsehoods being peddled, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done an excellent job in controlling retail inflation which came in at 4.35% in September 2021. Food inflation came at just 0.68%, while vegetable inflation was minus 22.47%. Even in August 2021, while retail inflation measured by consumer price index (CPI) was 5.3%; food inflation was 3.11%, while vegetable inflation was minus 11.68%. Dont forget, globally, food inflation measured by the FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), is currently at the highest levels ever, since 1970. Food inflation, globally, is up by anywhere between 33-47%, compared to last year, driven by inclement weather, rising freight and shipping costs and supply side constraints. Many countries are not even able to import food grains due to depleting forex reserves and rising import costs. India stands tall, with bountiful supplies and commendable management of the food economy by the Modi government. Those who accuse the current government of rising fuel prices, should know that in the last few weeks, gas stations in the United Kingdom ran dry and out of gasoline. Finally, price of any commodity is largely driven by demand-supply dynamics and given the incumbent global shortages and rising fuel demand worldwide, India too, is seeing a rise in prices but on a relatively smaller scale, versus global peers.

To cut to the chase, India,under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is planning to increase natural gas consumption by 2.5x as part of the energy mix— to 15.5% by 2030, from the current level of 6.2%. The ongoing transition from an ‘Oil economy’ to a ‘Gas economy’ under PM Modi’s visionary leadership is steadfastly underway. Over 70% of India’s population in over 400 districts will have city gas distribution (CGD) facility soon. Only 25 lakh households in India had access to piped natural gas (PNG) in 2014 but thanks to the Modi government’s persistent efforts, that figure more than quadrupled by 2021. Again, India only had 947 CNG stations in 2014,that number rose to 1470 stations in 2018 and is set to scale up to a massive 10,000 CNG stations in the next few years. Since CNG is anywhere between 45-60% cheaper compared to Petrol and Diesel, this will make India self-reliant, in more ways than one.

The writer is an economist, national spokesperson of the BJP, and the bestselling author of ‘Truth & Dare: The Modi Dynamic’. Views expressed are her personal.

In 1947, India became independent from the clutches of British oppressive regime after centuries of struggle. Nevertheless, the dawn of independence arrived in the form of fragmented and divided India into princely states. With the wounds of its partition, India got involved in national integration. Gradually, discussions of various levels started taking place on the joining of all the princely states with India. In the north was the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir— the largest principality in the subcontinent in terms of area. Although the trickle down effects partition affect the state, comparatively the situation was under control here. Perhaps no one here had any idea what was going to happen next.

According to the British conditions, Jammu and Kashmir, like all princely states, was to be merged with either India or Pakistan. At the same time, there was constant correspondence between Jammu and Kashmir and Delhi. The news of India and Jammu and Kashmir coming closer through the exchange of business letters was not liked by the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Muhammad Ali Jinnah and as a result he sent his army to invade the princely state and ordered them to take possession of the region. Soon after, the Pakistani army and Pashtun tribesmen attacked the princely state. The attackers simultaneously attacked Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh and Gilgit to conquer their imperialistic ambitions. During this, the attackers were moving towards the capital Srinagar, committing murder, rape and plunder. Unable to stop the attack, the princely army and the rapidly deepening crisis, the Maharaja sought India’s help. At the same time, the people of the princely state were terrorized from the invasion. Meanwhile, a 19-year-old young man showed indomitable courage, which no one else of this age would even think of doing. That young man was Maqbool Sherwani. Without caring for his life, he went straight to the attackers.

It was October 22, 1947, when Pashtun tribesmen were looting in Baramulla district of Kashmir. Maqbool Sherwani met the attackers without fear and instructed them not to proceed. He lied to the tribesmen that the Indian army had come in the area of Baramulla and that further advance could be dangerous. His lie worked and the attackers stayed in Baramulla for four days. Meanwhile, on 26 October 1947, Maharaja Hari Singh, the King of Jammu and Kashmir, signed the Instrument of Accession with India, with which Jammu and Kashmir became an integral part of India forever. Now the security of the state was the responsibility of India, under this, the very next day after the merger, the Indian Army reached Srinagar and took control of the areas again after freeing them from the invaders.

This effort of Maqbool Sherwani had the effect that the enemy could not reach the capital Srinagar and the Maharaja and the Indian army got four precious days. Sadly, Maqbool was taken hostage by the enemies on 7 November 1947. There was great anger among the attackers that a young man had fooled the entire army of the tribesmen and defeated their purpose. The tribesmen gave him many inhuman tortures. After asking several times about the position of the Indian Army, the tribesmen hung Maqbool Sherwani on two high poles after not responding and refusing to raise the slogan ‘Pakistan Zindabad’. They hammered nails into his body and cut off his head. When the Indian army reached Baramulla after eliminating the attackers hiding elsewhere, his body was hanging on the same pillar. During the investigation, fourteen bullet marks were found on his body, and according to the local people, his body was in this condition for two days. Indian Army cremated Maqbool Sherwani with full military honors at Baramulla Mosque.

The Indian Army celebrates the arrival of its first troops in the state as ‘Infantry Day’ every year. On this day high officers of the army pay tribute to this brave citizen. Apart from this, in the year 2004, the army also constructed Sherwani Community Hall in the city center in the memory of this warrior. It is said that just before Partition, when Jinnah was justifying his Two Nation Theory in a meeting in Baramulla, Maqbool Sherwani and his supporters protested fiercely, resulting in Jinnah having to interrupt his speech. It is said that Jinnah had to get down from the platform.

The power to make supreme sacrifice for the country at a young age belongs to great young men like Khudiram Bose, Shaheed Bhagat Singh— only a few revolutionaries in history. And we can count Sherwani among them. He impressed everyone with his valor. If Jammu and Kashmir is the crown of the land of India today, then a big contribution in this came from the brave efforts of Shaheed Maqbool Sherwani, who dedicated his life full of immense possibilities in realizing the dream of a strong India.

There is a spate of writings from experts counselling India on its Afghanistan policy following the return of the Taliban-led regime in Kabul in August, that was marked by an unconcealed mentoring by Pakistan in matters of appointment of the Emir as well as the constitution of the new cabinet. Many analysts see “redeeming” features in the Taliban rule this time and rush to imagine factors that would compel the radical forces to “moderate” their outlook and respect the opinion of the world outside. They believe that the ability of the Taliban to maintain their offensive was adversely hit by the “tribal” divisions in Afghanistan, differences between the Pashtuns on the two sides of Durand Line, rise of an anti-Pakistan opinion within the Taliban rulers, economic “compulsions” and the deterrent technology of drone attacks perfected by the US as an effective way of getting at the leadership of Islamic radicals. On this theoretical construct alone they have advocated that India must have talks with the Taliban. The principle of security assessment, however, is that the tentative “positives” should never be allowed to override the hard “negatives” in a threat scenario. The paradigms of the mounting radicalisation of the Pak-Afghan belt remain unchanged particularly from the Indian perspective. India has rightly decided to first see what “moderation”, if at all, the Taliban Emirate would show this time before we could think of having any dealings with it.

There is plenty to prove that the Taliban have regained the Emirate in Afghanistan on a much stronger footing than what was the case when they had first come to power in Kabul in 1996. Even at the time Pakistan had sent the Taliban, known for their radicalism, to Afghanistan to ruthlessly control the anarchy prevailing there because of the fighting between the Northern Alliance and the Islamists following the withdrawal of Soviet Army. The Pak ISI worked from behind the curtain to install the Emirate under the Taliban and persuaded Saudi Arabia and UAE to recognise the new regime as a symbol of victory of Islamic forces against their “nationalist” opponents. Mullah Omar was a close relative of Osama bin Laden and the Taliban- Al Qaeda combine soon bared its fangs against the US-led West that was its primary enemy in terms of historical legacy. Gen Ahmad Shah Massoud of the Northern Alliance had warned the European Union Parliament in April 2001 of the plan of Al Qaeda operating out of Afghanistan to hit the US in a big way. He was assassinated two days before 9/11.

The US-led “war on terror” directed against the Taliban rule in Afghanistan was an asymmetric conflict, with the Mujahideen taking on the US military might as a guerrilla force and repeating the spectacle of what had happened in the anti-Soviet armed campaign that had been allowed by the CIA-ISI combine to be run on the war cry of jihad. As President Ashraf Ghani’s government, aided by the military logistics of the US, did not help matters, Pakistan this time around was able to play the role of a mediator between a grateful Biden Presidency and the Taliban at the end of the 20 years of “war on terror”. The Taliban sensed the desperation of the US to pull out its troops from the messy theatre and with collaboration of Pakistan made deft moves to get the better of the other side during and after the Doha negotiations.

There is an awareness in the US camp of Pakistan’s duplicitous role in the “war on terror” that was essentially a combat between Islamic radicals and the US-led West, but very little understanding of how the radicals carried the historical memory of the 19th century jihad launched by Shah Waliullah, a follower of Abdul Wahab, against British India. It was also seen that Pentagon’s assessment of the Pak army being the same ally which was on the US side during the Cold War, was largely obsolete and that there was no base of Intelligence to presume that the inalienable bonds between Taliban and Al Qaeda had faded away to a point where the Taliban could even be willing to restrain Al Qaeda from operating from Afghan soil.

Moreover, there is some realisation that Zalmay Khalilzad had committed a strategic mistake by holding the Doha talks completely behind the back of the Ashraf Ghani government and thus starting off the negotiations on a note of total appeasement of the Taliban. Finally, the US now seems to have the comfort of distance in relation to Afghanistan, where Pakistan—still considered friendly enough not to let the Taliban leadership indulge in any hostile act American assets—could be of help to the former. Biden administration’s focus is on a resurgent China that was striving to emerge as the second superpower. In its preoccupation with the challenge in the Indo-Pacific, the US seemingly undervalued the importance of the Sino-Pak military alliance in providing a strategic advantage to China in Afghanistan.

Analysts overrate the tribal contradictions in Afghan society as a factor detracting from the ability of the Taliban to dominate the country. The advent of Islam marked the success of religious brotherhood in prevailing over any other identities and Pan-Islamic sentiments have, if anything, grown stronger. Islamic radicals of Taliban, Al Qaeda and ISIS call for “revivalism” of faith as it existed in the times of the early Caliphs and this is a mandate that no faithful could openly find fault with. Also, the political boundary between Pakistan and Afghanistan is an artificial line that does not create a socio-religious division amongst the Pashtuns on the two sides—the above-mentioned jihad of the Wahabis on the Indian sub continent against the British occupation of “Muslim land” had its epicentre in Swat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and though unsuccessful, it had left the NWFP-Afghan region highly radicalised for the future. The inclusion of Haqqani and other internationally designated terrorists in the Kabul cabinet makes it unlikely that Taliban would have at the leadership level any elements hostile to Pakistan. With Pakistan and China willing to alleviate the economic distress of the Afghan Emirate and the determination of the radicals to do with less, the regime was not likely to climb down on its ideological extremism. Deterrence of drone attacks would make the radicals cautious but not demoralised.

A major flaw in the Western threat assessment is the easy acceptance of the view that there was contradiction between Al Qaeda and ISIS—the reality was that there was competition, not conflict among them. The suicide bombing at Kabul airport and more recently at a Shia mosque attributed to the ISIS was to push the radical agenda further. Islamic radicals consider Shias—again for historic reasons traceable to the Kharijite revolt against Caliph Ali—as an enemy next only to the US-led West. Pak ISI’s record of floating Al Qaeda and IS fronts on its soil creates a legitimate suspicion that it would be interested in keeping the cauldron boiling in Afghanistan. Pakistan never had any problem with Islamic radicals and Prime Minister Imran Khan has been for some time now, regretting the support rendered by his country to US in the “war on terror”. Pakistan is politically and militarily inclined towards China and is on the side of Islamic radicals in their ideological conflict with the US. Imran Khan has described the Afghans as his brothers-in-faith. All of this adds a new dimension to the emerging Cold War between the US and China as Communist dictatorships and regimes subscribing to Islamic radicalism had come on the same page at least for the time being. This impacts India’s strategic thinking as well.

India has done well to maintain that the Taliban government was not inclusive, prefer the intervention of the international community through the UN to get the Kabul rule to respect equitable rights of the Afghan nationals and ensure security of the minorities and declare that India valued friendship of peace-loving Afghans but disapproved of terrorist outfits. India is also working with Russia, Iran and Central Asian republics in the neighbourhood of Afghanistan on various forums to oppose the use of Afghan territory for terrorist activity—this helps to build an international understanding of India’s concern that a new threat may arise in Kashmir from the developments in the Af-Pak region. Pakistan is apparently trying to encourage communal militancy in India and revive terrorist violence in Punjab too. We have to have our own strategy for safeguarding internal security in the new situation—the Home Minister is already seized of the matter. India basically needs to deal with Pakistan with an iron fist, keep Chinese activity on LAC under watch and step up action against Pak agents operating on our own soil with or without a political cover.

D.C. Pathak is a former Director of the Intelligence Bureau.

Analysts overrate the tribal contradictions in Afghan society as a factor detracting from the ability of the Taliban to dominate the country. The advent of Islam marked the success of religious brotherhood in prevailing over any other identities and Pan-Islamic sentiments have, if anything, grown stronger. Islamic radicals of Taliban, Al Qaeda and ISIS call for “revivalism” of faith as it existed in the times of the early Caliphs and this is a mandate that no faithful could openly find fault with.

Pakistan is playing good cricket, trouncing first India and then New Zealand at the World T20 championship. Both its victories were well deserved and could mark a resurgence of Pakistani cricket after a prolonged slump, during which international teams stopped visiting that country and team performance went from bad to worse. But then the praise stops there, for the less said the better about Pakistanis in cricket. With Shoaib Aktar, Waqar Yunus and others justifying the Two-Nation theory while discussing India-Pakistan cricket, saying things like there’s something special about a Pakistani offering namaaz among Hindus, asking questions about the importance of defeating kafirs…if there was a trophy for bigotry, the Pakistanis would have won it hands down. Moreover, there is no criticism of all this from the Pakistani population in general, for the thought process behind such utterances seems to have been normalized in that country.

Perhaps this has been the real face of Pakistani cricket all along, notwithstanding the glamour that their players added to the sport in the yesteryears. After all, their most successful and “modern” captain, Imran Khan turned out to be a Neanderthal once he joined politics and became Prime Minister, going around wooing radical clerics and spewing prehistoric views on how women should dress, among other things. In fact, the cricketers seem to be a reflection of the Pakistani milieu, where the overwhelming majority appears either indifferent or insensitive, or both to the minorities, where discrimination against minorities has been institutionalized, where a whole population is being taught a false history of a glorious past where the “other” was always defeated and stayed subservient to the will of the “racially superior”. So Waqar Yunus may apologise for his namaaz remark, but the problem is the mindset he revealed, raising questions about the extent to which this mindset prevails in Pakistan.

This exultation was evident even in Pakistani minister Sheikh Rashid’s viral video, where he labelled Pakistan’s victory over India as a victory of Islam over Hindus and said that Muslims worldwide, including Indian Muslims were celebrating it. The statement was essentially mischievous, for it attempted to “otherise” India’s minority community, by making them suspect in the eyes of the majority. In spite of being a buffoon, Rashid played a dangerous game and it would be foolish on the part of Indians to play into his hands. Hence, when a small section of the minority community in India celebrates Pakistan’s victory, they actually help Sheikh Rashid to drive a wedge between the majority and the minority, thus allowing people to unfairly question the loyalty of the minority community to this country. In this case, there is no freedom to choose whose victory to celebrate, given the long history of animosity and enmity between the two countries. Even otherwise, it would be really strange for Indians to be bursting crackers celebrating India’s defeat against any country, not just Pakistan. Let’s hope that saner heads will prevail and the damage done will be repaired.

And since we are talking cricket, might as well ask: what were the Indian players thinking when they took to the knee for the #BLM movement? How many black players are there in the Indian team, or have ever been? Why are Indians suddenly showing solidarity to a cause that India has never had anything to do with? This is not an attempt to criticize #BLM, but just to ask wouldn’t it have been better for Indians to pick up a cause that resonates with this country? Activism and sports make for a bad mix, so should be avoided. But if Indian cricketers were really keen to be seen as trendy “internationalists”, they could have always picked up climate change as a cause, especially since the World Cup schedule is coinciding with the climate change summit in Glasgow. Else what we are witnessing is the team appearing deracinated and thus being trolled both on social media and in TV studios. Whatever might have been the good intention behind it, the act of taking to the knee—and that too on a day the team got walloped by Pakistan—backfired spectacularly.

So the advice to all teams at this juncture is: concentrate on the game, leave your bigotry and activism outside the playing arena.