F&O expiry outlook: Nifty resistance placed at 18000-18100, Banking sector to guide stock markets this week

All eyes on the banking space going forward because initially it was a saviour and has become the culprit now. Image: Reuters

By Sameet Chavan

In the initial hour of the trade on Thursday, Nifty 50 slid below 18100, and then as the day progressed, the bears thrashed all key supports one after another. Due to massive sell-off in individual stocks, Nifty eventually plunged below 17900 to conclude the October expiry on a depressive note. In this process, Nifty concluded with a nearly 2% loss, thereby marking the biggest single-day cut after April 12, 2021.

Since last week or so, the Nifty started to look a bit nervous but banking was providing a strong helping hand and hence we did not see any major damage in the benchmark. But on Thursday, the financial space finally succumbed to the broader market weakness by tumbling over 3%. This imposed tremendous pressure on Nifty and in the process, Nifty had to finally surrender the sheet anchor support of 18000. In fact, due to aggrandized selling in the last hour, Nifty went on to slide convincingly below 17900. From the last few days, we have been maintaining our cautious stance on the market and even though the market was making new highs, we maintained our skepticism and repeatedly advised booking profits.

When the market was not correcting, this might have sounded senseless, but historically it’s proven, when things look hunky-dory all around, the euphoric situation takes place and that is the time when the market surprises with a corrective move. This is exactly what we witnessed in the last week or so and on Thursday, finally, the bears looked in complete demand. The anticipation has now turned into confirmation by violating the 18000 mark. We can see the first weakness on the chart which is the ‘Lower Top Lower Bottom’ on daily chart, coinciding with the convincing close below the ’20-day EMA’.

Since the market is a bit oversold, we may see some relief move in between; but traders should not get carried away by such rebounds. On the higher side, 18000 – 18100 would now be seen as immediate hurdles and any bounce back towards it, should be used to lighten up longs. On the flip side, we may see this corrective move extending towards 17700 – 17600 – 17450 in the coming days. All eyes are on the banking space going forward because initially it was a saviour and has become the culprit now. So, it would be interesting to see how it moves going ahead, which is likely to dictate the direction for the overall market.

(Sameet Chavan is Chief Analyst – Technical and Derivatives, Angel One Limited. Views expressed are the author’s own.)