Forecast: Holiday spending to top $207 billion

Worries about continued supply chain disruption may be pushing more people to shop early. That is one takeaway from a new Adobe forecast which predicts that the global holiday spend will top $910 billion; in the US, holiday spending is forecast to his $207 billion this year.

by Kristina Knight

If sales in the US hit the $207 billion mark, that would be a 10% increase YoY. The usual spending days are expected to hit high-water marks this season with Cyber Week leading the way for retailers of all sizes. According to Adobe's experts Cyber Week spending will reach about $36 billion (Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday), and will make up about 17% of holiday spending. Cyber Monday, alone, is expected to bring in about $11 billion. Black Friday sales, meanwhile, are expected to bring in $9.5 billion.

However, all may not be merry and bright for shoppers because of continued supply chain issues. Adobe's experts note that out of stock messages are up 172% as we head into the busy shopping season.

"We are entering a second holiday season where the pandemic will dictate the terms," said Patrick Brown, VP of Growth Marketing and Insights, Adobe. "Limited product availability, higher prices, and concerns about shipping delays will drive another surge towards e-commerce, as it provides more flexibility in how and when consumers choose to shop."

Other interesting findings from the report include:

• Supply chain issues could mean a 9% increase in spending for shoppers Cyber Week
• Discounts will range from 5% to 25% in 2021 vs. historical average discounts of 10% to 30%
• Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) usage is expected to increase 10% YoY
• 25% of shoppers say they've used BNPL in the last 3 months

In addition to BNPL increases, Adobe's experts believe many shoppers will continue to take advantage of Buy Online Pickup In Store (BOPIS) options, outing to buy online and pick up orders curbside. During the final week of shopping about 65% of orders are expected to be BOPIS; between now and that final week about 25% of orders are expected to be BOPIS.

For the year, e-commerce is set to hit another record: $4 trillion in spending.

Meanwhile, Deloitte's experts are expecting at least $1.3 trillion in spending over the 2021 holiday season, although their data shows people may spread their shopping out rather than putting all of their shopping baskets on the big days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Tags: 2021 holiday retail trends, Adobe Analytics, ecommerce, ecommerce holiday shopping, ecommerce trends, holiday 2021 ecommerce