Climate Council to finalise first carbon budget today – but what does it mean?

The Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) will meet today to finalise the country’s first national carbon budget and kick start emission cuts.

The budget will set out how many tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions Ireland can emit over the next five, 10 and 15 years without breaching legal limits laid down in the Climate Act.

Once the budget is set, and accepted by the Government, individual ministers will be told how much of the total tonnage will be permitted in sectors, agencies and activities under their control.

Under the Climate Act, Ireland must achieve a 51pc reduction in overall emissions by 2030 compared to 2018.

That averages a 7pc reduction per year, but cuts of that scale would be virtually impossible in the next few years so the 2021-2025 budget is expected to be less strict than the one to follow.

But it will still create major challenges for many sectors.

Latest greenhouse gas emission figures published by the Environmental Protection Agency last week showed emissions fell by only 3.7pc in 2020, despite severe reductions in economic activity and transport because of Covid-19.

Achieving deeper cuts in times of normal activity is a massive task.

Progress in the first budget will also be hard because, coming so late in the year, it is essentially a four-year budget.

Continued pandemic restrictions in the early part of this year should help bring down the 2021 emission figures.

But any gains are likely to be offset because of the greater reliance on coal and oil for electricity generation while two gas-fired plants have been out of commission for repairs, and wind farms have not been generating as much as usual because of prolonged spells of calm weather.

If the CCAC sign off on the budget today, it will then go immediately to Climate Action Minister Eamon Ryan for presentation to Cabinet.

Mr Ryan said last week if he received the budget today, his intention was to publish the revised Climate Action Plan on Wednesday of next week.

The plan is an updated version of the existing 2019 document and will set out detailed measures and policies to be adopted by all sectors to cut emissions.

The 2019 document, if implemented in full, aimed for a 30pc cut in emissions by 2030.

It included such targets as having 500,000 homes retrofitted and one million electric vehicles on the road by the end of the decade.

The new plan needs to have new and more extensive measures to meet the 51pc target.

Mr Ryan, speaking about the new plan in the Dáil last week, said: “It is transformative beyond compare because the 50pc reduction in emissions requires us to completely change our energy system, transport system, land use and agricultural system and industrial systems for the better.”