Rate of coal and gas power decline needed to limit climate change to 2.7°F has NEVER been achieved before, historical analysis reveals
- Researchers reviewed fossil fuel usage details from 105 nations over 60 years
- Experts say reducing fossil fuel use in power is key to tackling climate change
- The team looked back of historical data to examine the likely societal impact
- They found no parallel in history for the level of coal and gas reduction needed
Keeping global temperatures from rising by more than 2.7°F (1.5°C) will require a cut in coal and gas power production, at a level never previously achieved, a study has revealed.
A review of fossil fuel usage in 105 countries between 1960 and 2018 was carried out by researchers from Chalmers University in Gothenburg, Sweden.
They set out to find historical comparisons to the level of fossil fuel use change required to keep temperatures from rising by more than 2.7°F (1.5°C) by 2100.
They found the most rapid historical case of fossil fuel decline was during the energy security threats of the 70s and 80s, with a shift form oil to coal, gas and nuclear.
'Rapid decline of fossils historically required advances in competing technologies, strong motivation to change energy systems, and effective government institutions to implement the required changes,' said lead author Jessica Jewell.
Keeping global temperatures from rising by more than 2.7F will require a cut in coal and gas power production, at a level never previously achieved, study shows
The team say that meeting the Paris target relies on finding mechanisms of fossil fuel decline that extend far beyond historical experience or current pledges.
While cutting fossil fuels from power is widely known to be a key component of reaching climate change goals, few studies have looked back in history to see how such a sudden and sweeping transition will impact society.
After sifting through 60 years of data, the team from Sweden found no historical parallel to the level of change needed to tackle climate change.
Even the most rapid historical cases of fossil fuel decline which occurred when oil was replaced by coal, gas, or nuclear power for security purposes, do not compare.
Professor Jewell, who also works at the University of Bergen in Norway, said other studies have looked at the world as a whole, rather than at the regional level.
'Prior studies sometimes looked at the world as a whole but failed to find such cases, because on the global level the use of fossil fuels has always grown over time.'
They found 147 episodes within a sample of 105 countries between 1960 and 2018 when coal, oil, or natural gas use declined faster than five per cent over a decade.
They focused on fast rates of fossil fuel decline in larger countries where significant technological shifts or policy efforts were likely to be required.
These episodes were then compared with climate mitigation scenarios using a tool called 'feasibility space'.
Professor Jewell said: 'We were surprised to find that the use of some fossil fuels, particularly oil, actually declined quite rapidly in the 1970s and the 1980s in Western Europe and other industrialised countries like Japan.
'This is not the time period that is typically associated with energy transitions, but we came to believe that some important lessons can be drawn from there.'
Typically, rapid declines in fossil fuels occur after advances in competing technologies combined with a strong motivation to change energy systems and effective government institutions to implement the changes.
Professor Jewell said: 'We were less surprised, but still somewhat impressed, by how fast the use of coal must decline in the future to reach climate targets.'
Of all the fossil fuels, coal would need to decline the most rapidly to meet climate targets, particularly in Asia and the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) regions where coal is still widely used.
But nearly all scenarios for the decline of coal in Asia to meet the climate targets have very few historical precedents or were unprecedented, the researchers found.
The team say that meeting the Paris target relies on finding mechanisms of fossil fuel decline that extend far beyond historical experience or current pledges
Even the most rapid historical cases of fossil fuel decline which occurred when oil was replaced by coal, gas, or nuclear power for security purposes, do not compare
The same was true of scenarios for coal decline in the 38 OECD countries and half the scenarios for cutting gas use in the Middle East or Africa.
Only where oil was replaced by coal, gas or nuclear power in response to energy security concerns did some scenarios resemble the The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models.
Professor Jewell said: 'This signals both an enormous challenge of seeing through such rapid decline of fossil fuels and the need to learn from historical lessons when rapid declines were achieved on the national scale.'
The team also examined political pledges to 'completely phase out coal power' made by 30 countries as part of the Powering Past Coal Alliance.
'We found that these pledges do not aim for faster coal decline than what has occurred historically,' Jewell said, adding that 'in other words, they plan for largely business as usual.'
The findings were published in the journal One Earth.
Revealed: MailOnline dissects the impact greenhouse gases have on the planet - and what is being done to stop air pollution
Emissions
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the biggest contributors to global warming. After the gas is released into the atmosphere it stays there, making it difficult for heat to escape - and warming up the planet in the process.
It is primarily released from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, as well as cement production.
The average monthly concentration of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere, as of April 2019, is 413 parts per million (ppm). Before the Industrial Revolution, the concentration was just 280 ppm.
CO2 concentration has fluctuated over the last 800,000 years between 180 to 280ppm, but has been vastly accelerated by pollution caused by humans.
Nitrogen dioxide
The gas nitrogen dioxide (NO2) comes from burning fossil fuels, car exhaust emissions and the use of nitrogen-based fertilisers used in agriculture.
Although there is far less NO2 in the atmosphere than CO2, it is between 200 and 300 times more effective at trapping heat.
Sulfur dioxide
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) also primarily comes from fossil fuel burning, but can also be released from car exhausts.
SO2 can react with water, oxygen and other chemicals in the atmosphere to cause acid rain.
Carbon monoxide
Carbon monoxide (CO) is an indirect greenhouse gas as it reacts with hydroxyl radicals, removing them. Hydroxyl radicals reduce the lifetime of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
Particulates
What is particulate matter?
Particulate matter refers to tiny parts of solids or liquid materials in the air.
Some are visible, such as dust, whereas others cannot be seen by the naked eye.
Materials such as metals, microplastics, soil and chemicals can be in particulate matter.
Particulate matter (or PM) is described in micrometres. The two main ones mentioned in reports and studies are PM10 (less than 10 micrometres) and PM2.5 (less than 2.5 micrometres).
Air pollution comes from burning fossil fuels, cars, cement making and agriculture
Scientists measure the rate of particulates in the air by cubic metre.
Particulate matter is sent into the air by a number of processes including burning fossil fuels, driving cars and steel making.
Why are particulates dangerous?
Particulates are dangerous because those less than 10 micrometres in diameter can get deep into your lungs, or even pass into your bloodstream. Particulates are found in higher concentrations in urban areas, particularly along main roads.
Health impact
What sort of health problems can pollution cause?
According to the World Health Organization, a third of deaths from stroke, lung cancer and heart disease can be linked to air pollution.
Some of the effects of air pollution on the body are not understood, but pollution may increase inflammation which narrows the arteries leading to heart attacks or strokes.
As well as this, almost one in 10 lung cancer cases in the UK are caused by air pollution.
Particulates find their way into the lungs and get lodged there, causing inflammation and damage. As well as this, some chemicals in particulates that make their way into the body can cause cancer.
Deaths from pollution
Around seven million people die prematurely because of air pollution every year. Pollution can cause a number of issues including asthma attacks, strokes, various cancers and cardiovascular problems.
Asthma triggers
Air pollution can cause problems for asthma sufferers for a number of reasons. Pollutants in traffic fumes can irritate the airways, and particulates can get into your lungs and throat and make these areas inflamed.
Problems in pregnancy
Women exposed to air pollution before getting pregnant are nearly 20 per cent more likely to have babies with birth defects, research suggested in January 2018.
Living within 3.1 miles (5km) of a highly-polluted area one month before conceiving makes women more likely to give birth to babies with defects such as cleft palates or lips, a study by University of Cincinnati found.
For every 0.01mg/m3 increase in fine air particles, birth defects rise by 19 per cent, the research adds.
Previous research suggests this causes birth defects as a result of women suffering inflammation and 'internal stress'.
What is being done to tackle air pollution?
Paris agreement on climate change
The Paris Agreement, which was first signed in 2015, is an international agreement to control and limit climate change.
It hopes to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C (3.6ºF) 'and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C (2.7°F)'.
Carbon neutral by 2050
The UK government has announced plans to make the country carbon neutral by 2050.
They plan to do this by planting more trees and by installing 'carbon capture' technology at the source of the pollution.
Some critics are worried that this first option will be used by the government to export its carbon offsetting to other countries.
International carbon credits let nations continue emitting carbon while paying for trees to be planted elsewhere, balancing out their emissions.
No new petrol or diesel vehicles by 2040
In 2017, the UK government announced the sale of new petrol and diesel cars would be banned by 2040.
However, MPs on the climate change committee have urged the government to bring the ban forward to 2030, as by then they will have an equivalent range and price.
The Paris Agreement, which was first signed in 2015, is an international agreement to control and limit climate change. Pictured: air pollution over Paris in 2019.
Norway's electric car subsidies
The speedy electrification of Norway's automotive fleet is attributed mainly to generous state subsidies. Electric cars are almost entirely exempt from the heavy taxes imposed on petrol and diesel cars, which makes them competitively priced.
A VW Golf with a standard combustion engine costs nearly 334,000 kroner (34,500 euros, $38,600), while its electric cousin the e-Golf costs 326,000 kroner thanks to a lower tax quotient.
Criticisms of inaction on climate change
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has said there is a 'shocking' lack of Government preparation for the risks to the country from climate change.
The committee assessed 33 areas where the risks of climate change had to be addressed – from flood resilience of properties to impacts on farmland and supply chains – and found no real progress in any of them.
The UK is not prepared for 2°C of warming, the level at which countries have pledged to curb temperature rises, let alone a 4°C rise, which is possible if greenhouse gases are not cut globally, the committee said.
It added that cities need more green spaces to stop the urban 'heat island' effect, and to prevent floods by soaking up heavy rainfall.
