Oscars Predictions: Best Director – Can Jane Campion and Siân Heder Mirror Last Year’s Double Women Filmmaker Nominees?

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE OSCARS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE OSCARS HUB
Revisit the prediction archive of the 2021 season THE ARCHIVE
Link to television awards is atTHE EMMYS HUB

2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST DIRECTOR

UPDATED: Oct 21, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: “Belfast” won the audience awards at Mill Valley and Middleburg film festivals, where writer and director Branagh received tributes and honors. Looking strong for Oscar recognition in writing and directing, he has received five nominations in his career, all across different categories (director, adapted screenplay, actor, supporting actor and live-action short), likely adding one more (original screenplay) to his resume this year.

He’ll face stiff competition from the second woman that was nominated for best director. If Jane Campion is nominated for directing, she would be the first woman to return for a second nom. Kathryn Bigelow famously was snubbed for “Zero Dark Thirty” (2012) after winning for “The Hurt Locker” (2009). Campion won original screenplay for “The Piano” (1993). There could be room for a second woman to enter the fold with Siân Heder for “CODA,” a crowdpleaser that keeps sustaining its positive vibes and buzz. It would be the second year in a row that two woman would be recognized the same year (following Emerald Fennell for “Promising Young Woman” and Chloe Zhao for “Nomadland,” who also has “Eternals” this season).

Is there room for a Bennett Miller (“Foxcatcher”) or Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”), who were the lone directing nominees without their films being recognized in best picture? The most likely culprit could be Pablo Larraín, who helms “Spencer” with surety and a distinct vision.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, March 27, 2022.

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS: