The southwest monsoon will withdraw completely from the entire country around October 26, paving the way for the commencement of the northeast monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) officials said on Wednesday.

“The Bay of Bengal and South Indian regions have conditions favourable to northeast monsoon winds from October 26 as the southwest monsoon is gradually moving away from the entire country,” said S Balachandran, deputy director-general of Meteorology, RMC. 

“This year, a normal NE monsoon is forecast, but it is too early to predict about depressions or cyclones,” Balachandran added. In the last two years, Tamil Nadu has been witnessing an increase in rainfall activity and in 2021 too it looks like the State is set to receive above average rains. Though October has witnessed heavy rainfall, November could well turn out to be the rainiest month for TN.

“The oceans are very warm, and unfortunately for us, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, some of the warmest ocean bodies, play a huge factor. Last year, the monsoon was above average, as we received the entire annual rainfall during the NE monsoon. But October was poor and only in November did we receive 45 cm rainfall in 25 days,” said weather blogger Srikanth K. October 2021 has been good for Tamil Nadu; because from October 1, we received 135 mm rain. 

The average for TN is 440 mm for the season (October, November, and December). By the time October ends, 200 mm rainfall is expected. “The onset of NE monsoon is likely to begin with a depression, leading to steady downpour in November,” Srikanth added.