Colorado’s COVID-19 hospitalizations continued to rise over the weekend, but it’s difficult to predict whether that trend will continue.
On Friday, more people were hospitalized with COVID-19 in Colorado than at any point since late December. The number of hospitalizations continued to increase, reaching 1,101 people with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 on Monday afternoon.
New cases appeared to fall last week, however. The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment reported 12,885 cases in the week ending Sunday — a decrease of roughly 2,500, if it stands. The state’s data has lagged in recent months, though, with late reports sometimes erasing any signs of progress.
“We’ve been in a period of uncertainty with the trends in the data,” said Talia Quandelacy, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Colorado School of Public Health. “It’s hard to tell what some of these trends are showing.”
One hopeful sign was that the percentage of tests coming back positive was down, though it was still above the state’s 5% goal. If that continues, and cases and hospitalizations also decrease, that could be a sign the worst is over, Quandelacy said.
“We need to see all three of these markers decreasing, and consistently decreasing,” she said.
So far, there’s no sign deaths are decreasing, which isn’t unexpected, with hospitalizations still rising. More than 100 people died of COVID-19 each week in the second half of September and first half of October.
The trajectory of Colorado’s epidemic isn’t clear, but the best way people can protect themselves and others is getting vaccinated, Quandelacy said. Getting the COVID-19 and flu vaccines, if you haven’t had them yet, will reduce the odds of spreading viruses at your winter gatherings or putting further strain on hospitals, she said.
As of Monday, Colorado had the 11th-highest rate of cases compared to population in the country, according to The New York Times’ COVID-19 data tracker. It also had the third-highest increase in cases, with the rate rising 30% in the last two weeks.
Nationwide, cases are dropping, but they’ve started to rise in northern states. Alaska currently has the worst epidemic, followed by Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota and Idaho. A similar pattern took hold last year, with a summer wave in the South fading, only to be succeeded by a fall surge that hit colder states.
It’s not clear yet if the pattern truly depends on the weather, or is driven by changes in behavior as southerners are able to get out in milder temperatures and northerners move their gatherings inside. Conditions also are drastically different this year, which makes it difficult to tell whether the country will see a large fall and winter wave, Quandelacy said.
“We have vaccines available and boosters,” she said. “We’ve also stopped doing some of the social distancing.”
