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The monsoon travels with the Sun and will now follow its seasonal trek to the southern hemisphere, putting the Bay of Bengal into another churn to set up the monsoon in reverse (North-East monsoon) and before running into the waiting hands of Australia for its next biggest play in the East and Far East.
Changes in broadscale wind patterns across the tropical oceans in the region are a sign that the focus of tropical weather is starting to transition to the southern hemisphere, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has said, citing signs of commencement of withdrawal of the Indian monsoon.
Set for withdrawal
Back home, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has maintained on Tuesday morning that conditions continue to be favourable for commencement of the monsoon from tomorrow (Wednesday) though remnant monsoonal activity continues in East and South India.
The Australian Bureau said that low-pressure systems and tropical troughs have started to appear over its surrounding seas, showing the increased solar influence in that region. Tropical troughs and changes in the trade wind pattern across the Pacific Ocean have also been apparent in recent weeks.
Southward movement
India's monsoon trough had recently moved South over water due to the southward movement of the withdrawal process. Previously, it had lain over the landmass of the subcontinent and so was not conducive to forming tropical lows and cyclones over either the Bay or the Arabian Sea.
Tropical cyclone 'Gulab' formed in the Bay before crossing the coast September 26. It had then tracked westwards across the breadth of Central India before popping out in the Arabian Sea and being renamed as 'Shaheen' that went on to become a severe cyclone and crossed the Oman coast.
₹2,000-crore loss, says RMSI
The overall impact of cyclone 'Gulab' in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha is about ₹2,000 Crore, according to consultancy RMSI, a global GIS consulting company providing geospatial technology solutions, modelling and analytics and IT consultancy services
The bulk of the losses are from agriculture (about 70 per cent), followed by buildings with about 20 per cent (50 per cent residential, 32 per cent industrial and 18 per cent commercial), according to Pushpendra Johari, Senior Vice-President-Sustainability at RMSI.
Season of extremes
The Global Strategic Communications Council has said that it would not be wrong to term the Indian monsoon 2021 as a season of extremes - right from extremely deficient rainfall to extremely surplus rainfall across the country, it said in its Climate Trends analysis.
The season has come to an end with normal rainfall to the tune of 99 per cent of the long period average (LPA). However, rainfall distribution has been completely erratic. This pattern has once again reaffirmed the climate change impact on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
Climate change impact
The deficit rainfall pockets such as West Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Marathwada and Vidarbha regions of Maharashtra are all in surplus, while the rainiest pockets like Kerala and Odisha as also those in the North-Eastern States have struggled to meet their average rainfall quota.
Citing a Council for Energy, Environment and Water analysis, it said that more than 75 per cent of the districts in India are exposed to extreme climate events. Subsequently, over 40 per cent have experienced disruptions such as a shift from being flood-prone to being drought-prone, or vice-versa.