Soft ground to help Adayar overcome poor Arc draw

Adayar gets the nod in tomorrow's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Photo: PA

Wayne Bailey

October 02 2021 02:30 AM

I’d no Betting Ring column in last week’s paper due to the death of my mother’s partner. I’d like to thank the good people of Ballybrack and beyond for all the kind messages and help over the last week or so.

Johnny Patton was a kind man, a great character, very good to my mother Bridget, and he’ll be sadly missed by all. Ar dheis Dé go raibh a anam dílis.

It doesn’t seem like a year ago, but I remember talking to Johnny about the 2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in which I’d backed the favourite Enable, although she was well beaten in the end, the prize money staying at home with Jean-Claude Rouget’s Sottsass successful.

For this year’s renewal, (3.05 Irish-time tomorrow) I’m siding with Charlie Appleby’s , which alongside Aidan O’Brien’s Snowfall was supplemented for the Paris showpiece this week at a cost of €120,000.

It’s a lot of money to hand over to get a horse into the race, but with a total purse of around €5,000,000 here and over half of that going to the winner, it may well be worth it.

Adayar’s price drifted slightly when it was announced he’d race from stall 11 and he’s now available at 11/4 in places, with Dermot Weld’s Tarnawa just about favourite at time of writing at 5/2 from stall three.

While a low draw is normally beneficial, the stats show that the advantage is minimal when the ground is softer (expected tomorrow), where it becomes far more tactical as jockeys have to come up with a plan that considers both speed and extra stamina.

The great thing about Adayar is that he acts on all types of ground, winning a maiden with the ground near heavy, the Epsom Derby on good to soft – and very impressive on firm ground in the King George. A son of Frankel, he’s something special.

Tarnawa was beaten by St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes, but she’s a multiple Group One winner and has been aimed at this race, so she’s highly respected. Snowfall was brilliant in the Oaks, although her recent defeat when priced 1/5 in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp is an obvious concern.

Adayar’s stablemate Hurricane Lane is another threat to the bet as he’ll like the soft ground, while the Japanese mare Chrono Genesis is one for the each-way backers to consider under Oisín Murphy.

Before all that, we’ve Group One action today at Newmarket and I’m very keen on Richard Hannon’s around 9/4 in the Fillies’ and Mares’ Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (2.55).

She failed to fire in her latest two races including the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp last time, but she was fantastic when winning the Falmouth on the July course here over this distance and she sets the standard.

The danger is Aidan O’Brien’s 1,000 Guineas winner Mother Earth who has been holding her own in good company since, and is looking to bounce back after a somewhat unlucky defeat in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown last time out.

At Ascot, catches the eye around 3/1 in the Group Three John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (3.15).

Archie Watson’s gelding has gone five races without success since he took the 2020 Group One Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot, but conditions have not always been in his favour and he looked uncomfortable on firmer ground when finishing well down the field in the Sprint Cup at Haydock recently. With the ground likely to be good to soft, we can expect plenty of improvement.

Available at 9/4 yesterday evening, gets the nod in the Group Three ABF/BGC Cumberland Lodge Stakes (2.40 Ascot).

Owen Burrows’ colt traded near 1/10 in-running when a neck-second to Hamish in the Group Three September Stakes on the all-weather at Kempton last time, although he was reported to have made a respiratory noise after. A son of Sea The Stars, he’d previously won two races at this level on the turf, and he’s tipped to get the better of Title and Quickthorn today.

For one at a decent price, consider which is expected to go off around 6/1 for the Equine Productions ‘The Fall’ Challenge Cup Heritage Handicap (3.50 Ascot) for John and Thady Gosden.

I’m not quite sure if a different type of ride would have made a difference, but he was left with a lot to do at Sandown last month and still finished a close second. Back today off the same mark of 100, and should be thereabouts.

Soft ground to help Adayar overcome poor Arc draw

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