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Conditions for withdrawal of monsoon from West Rajasthan may not develop until the middle of the first week of October , according to India Meteorological Department (IMD), which sees an active Bay of Bengal extending the monsoon past the normal closure date of September 30.
This is the third time in as many years that the monsoon braces for a delayed withdrawal, says private forecaster Skymet Weather. In 2019, it began late from October 9 while and finished on October 17. In 2020, the process started late on September 28 (normal date is September 17 as revised latest).
Helpful monsoon trough
The IMD has said that the backbone monsoon trough will continue to be active and near normal or to the South of its normal position during most days of the week, auguring well for rainfall spread.
A low-pressure area may form over the Bay of Bengal during the first half the week. The resultant fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls over Northwest and Central India during most of the days of the week and likely above normal rain activity for most parts of the country will go to rule out withdrawal of the monsoon during this period.
Meanwhile, the period between September 23-29 too will see a low-pressure area materialising over the East-Central and adjoining Bay on Saturday evening and track along a West-Northwest direction towards the Odisha coast during Monday and Tuesday.
Skymet Weather too agrees and said that two 'lows’ in quick succession may form over the Bay from storm remnants from the West Pacific/South China Sea. Both will move inland and keep the moderate to intense rainfall over Central and West India until end of the month.
Also read: Two more rain systems brewing in the Bay
September has already witnessed three active monsoon systems in quick succession. Two more low pressure areas waiting in the wings will take it to a record five, Skymet Weather said.
Widespread rain forecast
The IMD sees fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely over East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Coastal Andhra Pradesh during next six-seven days and over Konkan and Goa until Monday. Isolated very heavy falls is likely over East Gujarat on Saturday and Sunday; Saurashtra and Kutch on Monday and Tuesday and Coastal Andhra Pradesh on Monday.
A fresh spell of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is very likely over Odisha and plains of West Bengal. Isolated heavy spell also likely over Konkan and Goa.
Rainfall is likely to increase over Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Kerala and Mahe with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall and isolated heavy falls during the second half of the week.
Above normal rains
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, and Haryana on Friday , and light to moderate isolated or scattered rainfall thereafter. Isolated heavy rainfall also is likely over Punjab on Friday.
Light to moderate scattered rainfall is likely over remaining parts of the country. Overall rainfall activity is very likely to be above normal over the country outside Assam, Meghalaya, West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir and Karnataka, where it is likely to be below normal.