It’s a 50% flat sale in Mumbai

By Ateeq Shaikh
Home inventory in MMR has reduced by half; could fall further
The unsold housing stock in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) has drastically depleted since the pandemic induced lockdown that was in force until now. The momentum is likely to continue with more sales happening than new projects getting launched.
Overall, almost half of the inventory overhang is at the MMR’s fringes and extended suburbs beyond Dahisar, Panvel, Kalyan, Bhiwandi, Titwala, Ambernath, Badlapur, etc, where the chunk of affordable housing stock lies. Of the total unsold stock of 2,81,601 units, 1,27,660 units are in these areas.
Secondly, despite record housing sales happening since August 2020, between Q4 2020-21 (Oct-Dec’20) and Q1 2021-22 (Jan-Mar’21) there has been a spike in inventory by 17 per cent or by 8 months. At the end of Q1 2020-21, the inventory overhang was 136 months or a long 11 years and 4 months. Less than a year later, that is in Q4 2020-21, this fell substantially to just 48 months or 4 years.
With project launches back in the real estate market, once again, there is an increase in the unsold housing stock levels to 56 months or 4 years and 8 months. Though there is an increase in month’s inventory by 10 months, still, year-on-year there has been a 59 per cent dip in the same, according to data collated by Liases Foras, an independent non-broking real estate research company.
“The increase in month’s inventory by 10 months is due to reduction in average sales numbers and impending third wave that might break the streak of high sales,” said Pankaj Kapoor, Managing Director, Liases Foras.

In the last year, the majority of the sales have taken place in the New Mumbai market followed by central suburbs, island city and western suburbs. Yet, there has been a marginal increase in inventory within Mumbai limits that is central and western suburbs as well as the island city. “This is due to the launch of a project or two,” explained Kapoor.
The project launch pipeline has been subdued and is likely to remain so for another three to four quarters, said Kapoor, there will be more sales happening than launches. Hence, the overall inventory level in MMR is likely to fall further.
For over a year now, several industry players and research reports have indicated that there has been a high demand for ready to move in homes as compared to under-construction ones. Hence, the realtors are focusing more on clearing their unsold inventory by completing the project rather than launching one.
As per Anarock Research, a real estate broking research firm, the trend of sales surpassing the launches is likely to continue till 2023. “In 2023, the supply will grow by 11 per cent and sales by 22 per cent over 2019 numbers,” said Anuj Puri, Chairman, Anarock Property Consultants.