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Violent crime shows upward trend, but Cele says year-on-year comparison is 'skewed'

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Bheki Cele. Photo: @GovernmentZA/Twitter
Bheki Cele. Photo: @GovernmentZA/Twitter
  • Police Minister Bheki Cele and police bosses announced the crime statistics for the first quarter of the 2021/2022 financial year.
  • The statistics cover the period 1 April to 30 June 2021.
  • The minister says it's hard to compare this year's statistics to the same period last year.

While South Africa has seen a double digit increase in contact crimes, including rape and murder, Minister of Police Bheki Cele says the latest quarterly crime statistics are distorted because of last year's hard lockdown. 

On Friday, Cele released the quarterly crime statistics for the period of 1 April to the end of June 2021. 

Cele said that contact crimes such as murder, attempted murder, sexual offences, and all categories of assault registered a 60.6% increase, compared to the corresponding period of the previous financial year.

However, Cele said comparing the latest crime statistics to the same period last year wasn't useful and accurate. 

READ | KZN police station named number one for rape

Cele explained that during the same period last year, the country was in a hard lockdown which severely restricted movement which resulted in less crime. 

"Fellow South Africans the 1st Quarter of the 2020/21 financial year coincided with Level 5 lockdown that kept almost everyone indoors and most businesses closed including taverns, liquor outlets, night clubs, sporting activities, and places of entertainment which are generally attributors to causative factors of crime.

"The never seen before pleasant picture of last year was compared to a normal period of 2019 and hence the comparison was distorted and very skewed."

"I repeat, we cannot compare the same period of this year and last year, due to the skewed and abnormal crime trends, caused by the different levels of lockdown, if we are to understand this crime picture that we are presenting to you today."


According to the minister, in the three months of reporting, there was a 66.2% increase in murder. When compared with the same period prior in 2019, the murder rate would have increased by 6.7%.

"Between April 2021 to end of June 2021, 5 760 people were killed in South Africa," Cele said.

"This is 2 294 more people killed compared to the corresponding period in the previous financial year.

"Compared to a period without lockdown, it would result in an increase of 362 more deaths."

As for rape, 10 006 cases of rape were registered April and June 2021. This is an increase of 4 201 cases, amounting to a 72.4% increase when compared to the same period in 2020. However, if compared to the same period in 2019, before the lockdown, the increase drops to 2.8%.

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