Resistance Movement in Afghanistan- Will Amrullah Saleh Be Successful in Eradicating Taliban

New Delhi: Soon after the fall of Kabul in a blitzkrieg advance of Taliban, most of the leadership of the country fled away including President Ashraf Ghani. Several others including field commanders of the Afghan Army surrendered to the inexperienced, immature students of Islamic Seminaries. Their fear was genuine. The last time when Taliban came to power, they treated the Afghan leadership in such a brutal way that no one wanted to take any chance. Even President Ashraf Ghani expressed his fears in the statement released from UAE yesterday.

There is another development taking place in the Hindukush mountains, especially in Panjshir Valley- the home to formidable Tajik Fighters. Taking the cue from the provisions of the Afghan Constitution, Amrullah Saleh- The first vice president of Afghanistan declared himself as an acting president. Amrullah Saleh has positioned himself in Panjshir Valley along with Ahmed Massoud who is the son of Legendary Ahmed Shah Massoud- “The Lion of Panjshir” and Afghanistan Defence minister. He has challenged the Taliban and is vowing to liberate Afghanistan from the clutches of Islamic Fanatics.

Panjshir Valley has a long history. It has never been occupied or captured by any external force. Even when USSR was flexing its muscles in the country, Ahmed Shah Massoud continued to operate from his stronghold and did not allow them to enter. Such was the fear that even Soviet Air Force was afraid to fly over the valley. When the Taliban came to Afghanistan in 1994-1996, they tried their best to conquer the area but failed miserably. Even after the assassination of Ahmed Shah Massoud, his fighters continued to hold the key, and concurrently, Panjshir valley is the only place which is not occupied by the Taliban. Interestingly, Tajik fighters have been able to maintain large chunks of war machinery there ever since the Anti-Soviet resistance started.

Amrullah Saleh is not an ordinary man. He has been fighting against the Taliban all his life. Ever since he joined the anti-USSR movement as part of Tajik forces led by Ahmed Shah Massoud, he had been among the most trusted lieutenants of the Lion of Panjshir. He had gained notoriety among the rival forces so much that when in 1996 the Taliban swept over Afghanistan, they had Amrullah Saleh on the top of their hit list. They arrested his sister and killed her brutally in 1996. His family was displaced & a large number of his relatives & trusted friends were killed in a barbaric manner. A few months later, he was appointed as the special emissary of Ahmed Shah Massoud to Tajikistan where he gathered massive international support for his organisation. Saleh was instrumental in gathering the support of various countries including India in a very short span of time and he enjoys a great rapport with most of the economies of the world.

During “Operation Enduring Freedom”, he helped Coalition forces gather intelligence about the Taliban and facilitated the complete eradication of Taliban from Afghan land. He had closely worked with the American CIA as well as other intelligence agencies and this was the reason when he was handpicked to raise Afghanistan’s own intelligence agency – National Directorate of Security or NDS in 2004. He was the head of the agency for a long time hence carries a tag of “Lifetime Spy”.

When he left NDS in 2010, there was a vacuum for some time but soon he was back as first vice president, the title which he carried until now. There is something about Amrullah Saleh which not only makes him a formidable spy but also a future leader of Afghanistan. These are also strong reasons which prove our theory that Afghan Resistance Movement against the Taliban is not small. It has the capabilities to turntables.

1. Support of Tajik Forces- Since Tajiks and their home ground Panjshir Valley has never been conquered, Saleh enjoys great support and is possibly seen as a successor of Ahmed Shah Massoud. It is learnt that he has the support of over 10,000 Tajik fighters currently present in the valley who are well trained and armed.
2. Anti- Taliban Sentiments in Afghanistan- Although the Taliban is pretending to be liberal, but their actions and atrocities are not much different from earlier times. The protests have started across Afghanistan and in absence of President Ashraf Ghani, the only leader which can fill the void is Amrullah Saleh. Hence there is a high possibility that a mass people’s movement can stand behind him.
3. Clean Image- Contrary to other Afghan leaders, Amrullah Saleh has never been accused of corruption and lack of governance. He has been considered a good leader who always stood by his countrymen in all thick and thin. A recent example is evident when he stayed put in the country while all other leaders have fled to other countries. This clean image will help him in getting not only the support of his countrymen but also from the external forces.
4. Rappot with the world- Being a spymaster, Saleh gathered lot of respect and developed good relations with major powers of the world. He was close to the countries who were part of the coalition as well as others like India & the Islamic World. Since he has strong anti-Taliban and anti-Pakistan sentiments, his proximity with India is an interesting affair.
5. Stronghold over Afghan Intelligence- Amrullah Saleh not only created NDS but also established a large network of spies in Afghanistan and nearby countries. He was the one who pinpointed the location of Osama Bin Laden four years before he was killed by US Navy Seals. Most of the successful coalition operations against Taliban and Al-Qaeda were based on his intelligence. It is believed that his NDS operatives are extremely loyal to him and in the current scenario when almost entire of the NDS is still at large, it may act as a boost to Saleh and will help him in his operations to liberate Afghanistan.
6. Outlook of Afghan Forces- Although Afghan forces have officially surrendered to the Taliban but there are various questions. While a small number of Afghan Army is in their barracks after the surrender, a large chunk of it is not traceable. It is believed that some of them have made their way to Panjshir valley to join the resistance movement and some are in the process of doing the same. There have been inputs that some of the commanders of the Afghan Army were deceived into surrender. They will not sit idle and seeing the first opportunity, will move out to fight the Taliban. It is also reported that most of the military hardware including aircrafts, Artillery guns, Vehicles & tanks have been made disabled by the fleeing Afghan Army.
7. Reaction of the warlords- Most of the warlords at the forefront earlier have fled from the country and are now eager to return back. They have their own support of fighters and military paraphernalia. Currently the resistance movement started by Amrullah Saleh is the only hope for them and they are left with no option but to support Saleh. Some of them like Ata Mohammad Noor are Tajik by ethnicity and hence enjoys a good rapport with Amrullah Saleh. It is estimated that these warlords can garner support of over 50,000 fighters if called to fight.
8. Poor state of affairs in Taliban – Although Taliban has conquered the country, but they have serious limitations. Their fighters are inexperienced, Impractical, and poorly trained madrasa students who just know how to follow the orders of their Mullahs. They do not even have the capability to operate the military hardware surrendered by Afghan National Army. Capturing a country with brute force is easy but ruling is not. A country is run by all its components who contribute to the progress in their own ways. Taliban way of governance has already started showing its effects in Afghanistan and it the same will continue, there will be a mass uprising.

So, if we look at the reasons mentioned above and apply our own logic, there are strong reasons to believe that the Taliban rule in Afghanistan is going to be short-lived. There are high chances that Amrullah Saleh led resistance movement in Afghanistan may gain momentum and will be able to throw out the Madrasa students from the land of Gandhara, the place which gave birth to not only major civilizations of the world.

Amit Bansal is a Defence Strategist with keen interests in International Relations and Internal Security. He is also an author, blogger, and poet.

(DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of India.com. The writer is solely responsible for any claims arising out of the contents of this article.)