Delta hit to end rapid jobless rate fall
Economists expect the latest jobs figures will show a rise in the unemployment rate, likely to be the first of several in coming months, as a result of an economic downturn due to widespread coronavirus lockdowns.
The labour force report for July is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.
Economists' forecasts centre on a rise in the jobless rate to five per cent from the decade low of 4.9 per cent reached in June.
If correct, it will be the first monthly increase since October last year when the rate stood at 6.9 per cent.
Economists expect the unemployment rate could reach 5.5 per cent in coming months as a result of contraction in the economy.
However, there is some uncertainty over how large the impact from the restrictions will have been in July, given states and territories have been in and out of lockdowns, apart from NSW.
Forecasts range from an unemployment rate rise to 5.2 per cent to an optimistic prediction of a fall to 4.5 per cent.
Similarly, while the number of people employed is expected to fall by around 46,000 in the month, forecasts range from a 90,000 fall to a 20,000 rise.
The National Skills Commission's final vacancy report for July confirmed job advertisements posted on the internet fell three per cent in the month, but were still 38.3 per cent higher than prior to the pandemic,
The largest fall in the month was in NSW, dropping 10.3 per cent.
Despite the rapid improvement in the labour market since last year's recession, it has not been reflected in the rate of wages growth.
Figures on Wednesday showed the wage price index - a key guide for wages growth used by the Reserve Bank and Treasury - rose just 0.4 per cent in the June quarter to an annual rate of 1.7 per cent.
While this was up from 1.5 per cent as of the March quarter, it remains close to the record low 1.4 per cent seen in the second half of 2020.
It is also well below the current rate of inflation at 3.8 per cent, indicating that real wages are going backwards.
Shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers said the Morrison government's own budget papers show wages will not keep pace with the cost of living.
"After putting in the hard work to overcome COVID-19, Australians will bounce back only to realise they are working harder but can afford less," Dr Chalmers told AAP.
