Why NSW will see 2,000 Covid cases a DAY within weeks if the infection rate doesn't drop - as dozens of new exposure sites are revealed including a busy Kmart, five Woolworths and two Aldis
- If infection rates stay consistent, NSW to reach 2200 daily Covid cases in weeks
- NSW contact tracers are still struggling to find the source of 3800 mystery cases
- Health authorities warned Delta's reproduction rate in now at a worrying 1.3
- Dozens of venues flagged as exposure sites across regional part of the state
Covid-ravaged New South Wales is on track to start racking up more than 2,000 cases a day if current infection rates continue, with seemingly no end in sight to the state's gruelling lockdown.
The Delta variant's reproductive rate has shot up to 1.3, as dozens of exposure sites are recorded across regional areas including a busy Kmart, five Woolworths and two Aldi supermarkets.
There were three deaths and a record 633 infections on Wednesday, up from 452 cases the day before, with the massive jump sparking fears the worst is still to come.
The R-rate is now 1.3, meaning every 10 people who catch the devastating respiratory illness will pass it on to another 13.
If the alarming figure triggering exponential growth stays the same, one of Australia's top virus experts, James McCaw, has warned there will be 2,000 daily cases within four weeks.
Worryingly, these predictions are not based on modelling showing worst or best case scenarios, but are made using simple maths based on the current 1.3 R-rate.
Covid-ravaged New South Wales is on track to start racking up over 2,000 cases a day, as the Delta variant's reproductive rate skyrockets (pictured, Sydneysiders in lockdown on Wednesday)
At the moment the R-rate is now 1.3, meaning every 10 people who catch the devastating respiratory illness will pass it on to another 13 (pictured, Bronte Beach in Sydney's east)
The University of Melbourne professor, who advises the federal government on its coronavirus response, said the rate at which infections are picking up pace is 'deeply concerning'.
'It could go lower too. Our models show the possibility of increases and decreases, but I think it's more likely to be well over 1,000 and up to 2,000 within a month or so,' he told the Sydney Morning Herald.
Using the 1.3 reproduction figure, NSW will see 2,278 daily cases on average by September 17, with more than 1,000 expected by September 2.
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If the R-rate were to drop slightly to 1.2, a five-day rolling average by September 17 would be a slightly healthier 1,409.
An R-rate of 1.1 would see the average daily cases by the same date reach a far more manageable 836.
NSW Health are not only scrambling to get on top of the ever-growing outbreak, but also to prepare for the huge influx of positive cases that may need to be hospitalised.
At the centre of those concerns are a staggering 3,803 mystery cases that are yet to be linked to a source.
Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the worst was yet to come for Sydneysiders as the state recorded by far the highest daily rise in cases during the Covid-19 pandemic to date
In order to free up staff and hospital capacity, the NSW Ministry of Health made the shock move to cancel almost all surgeries in the state's private hospitals.
Under the 'special conditions' order only 'emergency' procedures will be allowed to go ahead from August 23.
Similar non-urgent surgeries have already been halted in public hospitals.
It comes just days after NSW Health admitted they have all but given up on listing exposure venues in virus-plagued Sydney.
Instead, health officials will concentrate on public alerts in regional areas and venues in the Harbour City deemed 'high-risk'.
Triggering fear are a staggering 3803 mystery Covid cases that are yet to be linked to their source (pictured, police assist NSW Health staff at a Covid vaccination clinic at Olympic Park on Wednesday)
NSW Health are not only scrambling to get on top of the ever-growing outbreak, but also to prepare for the huge influx of positive cases that may need to be hospitalised (pictured, Sydney on Wednesday)
Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant told reporters the R-rate will need to drop below 1 before any improvements can be made in the case numbers.
She desperately reiterated her daily message on Wednesday morning calling on NSW residents to stay at home and abide by the state's harsh lockdown measures which are now in their eighth week in Sydney.
'Every person is passing on the virus to more than one person, so we are continuing to see case numbers increase,' she said.
'You might have one person who has connections across three households, but in each of those households you've got tens of people. And we know that household transmission for Covid is so common.'
Sydneysiders line up in Bankstown to get vaccinated against Covid-19 on Wednesday (pictured) - one of the city's virus hotspots
A long queue of people is seen lining up to vaccinated against Covid at Bankstown in Sydney on Wednesday (pictured) - with the area suffering a worrying influx of Covid cases
Of the 633 new cases, about 550 are young people and workers in Sydney's areas of concern in the west and southwestern suburbs where transmission of the virus to household contacts remains the leading cause of infections.
Premier Gladys Berejiklian specifically called out residents in Merrylands, Guildford, Auburn, Greenacre, Yagoona, St Marys and Strathfield, urging them to 'stay at home' and not visit other households.
'Stay at home. Don't break the rules, everybody knows what they mean. Just a small number of people are choosing to ignore what the rules are,' she said.
Her warning for Sydneysiders comes as dozens of venues throughout regional NSW were flagged by NSW Health as exposure sites.
A long list of businesses were issued with public health alerts in far west NSW's town of Dubbo, including a day spa, corner store and a gym.
Dubbo Kmart (pictured) was among dozens of venues in the far west town exposed to the virus
Dubbo Aldi (pictured) was issued a public health alert after being flagged as a Covid exposure site
Anyone who visited Dubbo's Itty Bitty Spa on Tuesday August 10 between 9:30am to 5:30pm is considered a close contact and must immediately get tested and isolate for 14 days.
The same goes for anyone who attended Dubbo Myall St Mini Mart on August 13 between 2:15pm to 2:30pm and gym-goers at Dubbo Snap Fitness on August 10 from 5:30pm to 6:30pm.
Meanwhile, five Woolworths supermarkets at Albion Park, Broken Hill, Shell Cove, Dubbo's Orana Mall and Dubbo Riverdale Shopping Centre, were issued casual alerts.
That means anyone who attended during the times listed by NSW Health must immediately get tested and isolate until a negative result is received.
It's the same story for shoppers at Broken Hill Coles, Dubbo and Edgeworth Aldi, and Kmart, also in Dubbo.
Albion Park Woolworths (pictured) near Shellharbour was flagged as a Covid exposures site
Australian Defence Force personnel assist NSW Police with Food Bank deliveries in Dubbo, NSW on August 18, 2021
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