On Saturday morning, Afghanistan’s president Ashraf Ghani sounded a note of defiance to the Taliban. During a brief recorded message from his palace, he said he was remobilising the army and vowed he would never give up the gains of the past 20 years.
About 24 hours later, it was all over. Last night the former World Bank anthropologist fled the country, reportedly flying to Tajikistan, joining a stampede of ministers and aides escaping a Taliban victory that has turned the country on its head in a week.
The departure of the country’s 14th president sealed a Taliban takeover, which in the past eight days has led to the government’s collapse and a 20-year Western effort to reconstruct Afghanistan end in abject failure.
As news of the 72-year-old’s departure broke, his political rival, Abdullah Abdullah, who now heads the country’s Afghan National Reconciliation Council, could not resist one parting shot.
“The former president of Afghanistan left Afghanistan, leaving the country in this difficult situation,” Dr Abdullah said. “God should hold him accountable.”
An irascible academic, Mr Ghani has a reputation for fierce intellect, but also extreme arrogance and a short temper. A workaholic who likes to interfere in everything, he stands accused of micromanaging the country into disaster.
His opponents blame him for centralising power in the hands of an out-of-touch coterie of Westernised advisers and deepening ethnic division in the country.
Yet the faults were not his alone. He was also dealt a woeful hand, being sidelined from a US withdrawal deal which badly weakened his government and lent legitimacy and confidence to his enemies.
As the walls closed in, there was little prospect of him being able to remain in the country, particularly since the last time the Taliban took Kabul they hanged a former president.
With the government now gone, the Taliban can turn their attention to cementing their power.
For much of yesterday it appeared that a transitional government might be possible, potentially brokered by grandees from Afghanistan’s political landscape.
Hamid Karzai has long tried to portray himself as an elder statesman suitable for such a role, while there was speculation Ali Ahmad Jalali, a US-based academic and former Afghan interior minister, could be named to head an interim administration.
Andrew Watkins, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Afghanistan, predicted the Taliban had carefully planned how they would approach the city. He expected a parade, or procession of fighters through the city.
“It also seems like the Taliban have thought about this moment, and don’t want to portray lawlessness,” he said. “That doesn’t mean there won’t be violence or abductions or many other misdeeds, but they are paying attention to the appearance of things anyway.”
But as the evening wore on the Taliban appeared to reject a transitional government in favour of a direct restoration of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan – the name they gave their 1990s regime.
A spokesman for the movement said the emirate would be declared from the presidential palace.
Afghanistan’s future now appears to be firmly in the hands of the Taliban.
Key figures in the organisation include Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who has led the insurgent’s negotiating team in Qatar for two years.
In less than a month the world will mark the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks which began the West’s two-decade campaign in Afghanistan.
When it does, the Taliban flag will again be flying over Kabul.
Telegraph Media Group Limited [2021]