IRCTC Q1 Review - Positives Priced In: Prabhudas Lilladher

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Prabhudas Lilladher Report

While we increase Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation Ltd.'s FY22/FY23 earnings per share estimates by 6%/4% respectively to account for improved ticketing delta arising from conversion of certain coaches into reserved category and better than expected Q1 performance we cut our rating given ~31% appreciation in stock price over the last 1.5 months.

Our EPS compound annual growth rate of 37% over FY22-FY24 factors in most positives viz;

1. rail neer expansion

2. catering price hike and

3. ticketing volume cushion from conversion factor leaving little room for earnings surprise.

Though IRCTC is a good play on the ongoing unlock theme valuations at 43 times FY23 EPS and 40 times FY24 EPS price in the recovery opportunity and strong growth prospects.

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