Nifty bias is expected to remain positive above 16,250. Nifty 50, Bank Nifty forecast: NSE Nifty 50 is likely to trade between 16,150 and 16,350 in the coming trading session, Call and Put OI data suggests. Further upsides are likely once the immediate resistances of 16350 are taken out and weakness could emerge if the supports of 16150 are broken, said Raushan Kumar, Derivative Analyst, IIFL Securities. Bank Nifty is expected to remain under pressure and needs to break out above 36,200 for meaningful upside. The Bank Nifty is just 4 per cent away from its record high of 37708; experts say that the expected trading range for the current expiry for Bank Nifty can be 35800-36600. On the last weekly F&O expiry day (Thursday), Nifty settled near 16300 after surging to a fresh lifetime high of 16349.45; while Bank Nifty closed above 35,800 after hitting 36115.45.
Highlights
"Bullish View maintained in entire consolidation of June & July and played the breakout with conviction. Now time for our Target of 16,500. Ride the 16,400 Calls with Cost SL," said Rahul Sharma, Director & Head - Research, JM Financial.
Long unwinding in the Bank Nifty Futures, Call writing at 16300-16400 levels and long unwinding by FIIs in the Index futures segment Indicates that one should remain cautious for the markets. Therefore, our advise is remain bullish with the strict SL of 16100 levels. On the higher side resistance is seen around 16300-16400 levels where Calls have been written.
In the Bank Nifty our advice is to remain bullish with the stop loss of 35400 levels. On the higher side, resistance is seen in the vicinity of 36000-36300 levels.
~ HDFC Securities
"Nifty futures open interest has increased to highest levels seen since March as range-bound movement seen in the last couple of months has eroded Nifty open interest significantly. The current open interest in the Nifty is more than 25% higher than that seen in the July series. On similar lines, net longs from FIIs have also increased sharply. Till we do not see closure of positions, positive bias should continue," said ICICI Direct.
The Nifty continues to consolidate in a range for the last few sessions after breaking out of the 15451-15962 trading range last week. On the daily chart, the Nifty continues to hold above a rising trend line that has held the important lows of the last few months. The index also continues to trade above the 20 and 50 day SMA. Given that the Nifty has broken out of a 500 point range last week, upside target implications for the coming weeks are at 16500. Short term trend reversal levels are at 16105.
~ Subash Gangadharan, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst, HDFC Securities.
"On the technical front, Nifty 50 shall continue on its upside momentum with support levels of 16,100 and the near-term resistance at 16,400. We believe any significant dip is a good opportunity to accumulate quality stocks in these markets," said Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities.
Nifty Open Interest Put Call Ratio fell to 1.23 levels from 1.30 levels. Amongst the Nifty options (12-August Expiry), Put writing was seen at 16100 levels, Indicating Nifty is likely to find support in the vicinity of 16200-16100 levels. On the higher side, immediate resistance is seen in the vicinity of 16300-16400 levels where we have seen Call writing.
~ HDFC Securities
"The Nifty had a volatile day (yesterday) where it rebounded after taking support from 16200 Put writers. Looking at option data, 16300 Call option witnessed significant OI addition, which should act as resistance while on the other hand 16200 Put option hold noteworthy OI which should act as support," said ICICI Direct
Short covering was seen in Nifty Futures’, where Open Interest fell by 4% with Nifty rising by 0.01%. Long unwinding was seen in Bank Nifty Futures’, where Open Interest fell by 4% with Bank Nifty falling by 0.6%.
~ HDFC Securities
Nifty Put Call Ratio, a sentiment indicator used by traders to gauge the market sentiment and mood, is currently at 1.23 compared to 1.22 of last week, indicating positive bias. India VIX, a market volatility indicator often called the fear gauge, is currently trading 12.73% compared to 12.87% last week. Implied Volatility of Nifty ATM options for the current series is at 12.45% in contrast to 13.74% of last week, indicating marginal volatile movement on either side in the coming session
~Rajesh Palviya, Vice President– Research (Head Technical & Derivatives) at Axis Securities Limited
"Closure of positions seen in Nifty and Bank Nifty futures. The bias remains positive above 16,250 while sustenance above 16,325 should attract short-covering. Bank Nifty remains under pressure and needs to take out 36,200 for any meaningful breakout," said Rahul Sharma, Director & Head - Research, JM Financial.
"The Nifty VWAP for the weekly series is at 16170 levels and maximum Put OI is also placed at 16200 strike price. Hence,16200-16150 will remain key support and on the higher side immediate hurdle is at 16340-16370 (last 3 days intraday high level). Only a close above 16350 level could catalyse Nifty’s up move towards its highest call OI option base of 16500. So, as per options OI data , in the coming session the trading band is between 16150 and 16350, which means further upsides are likely once the immediate resistances of 16350 are taken out and weakness could emerge if the supports of 16150 are broken," said Raushan Kumar, Derivative Analyst, IIFL Securities.
Our advise is to remain bullish with the trailing stop loss of 16100 levels. On the higher side 16300-16400 level will act as an immediate resistance where Calls have been written. In the Bank Nifty, our advice is to hold long position with the stop loss of 35500 levels. On the higher side, resistance is seen in the vicinity of 36300-36500 levels.
~HDFC Securities
Long build up was seen in Nifty Futures’ where Open Interest rose by 3% with Nifty gaining by 0.13%. Long build up was also seen in the Bank Nifty Futures, where we have seen 10% rise in the Open Interest with Bank Nifty rising by 0.01%.
~ HDFC Securities
As per options data, the Nifty is likely to remain range-bound as 16200 Put and 16300 Call hold significant OI. Nifty futures ended at a discount of 3 points while IV was up by 0.79%. The major Put base is at 16200 strike with 49 lakh shares while the major Call base is at the 16300 strike with 50 lakh shares.
~ ICICI Direct
"Three dojis in the last four days summarily explains the prevailing indecision. Yet, within this construct, the bias is leaning towards upside, especially within bottoms being held by a horizontal support, even as peaks remain uneven. Meanwhile, a hammer formed in the closing hour yesterday, calls for a run up early in the day, which though could be limited to 16350 on first attempt. However, if subsequent pull backs manage to keep its head above 16268, then we could be heading towards 16450-500 in the next few sessions. Alternatively, inability to float above 16268 could see Nifty drifting back into an indecisive zone, but the chances of a collapse beyond 16090-33, looks very limited," said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
"The Nifty continues it's struggle to keep above the 16300 level. It is facing resistance every time it tries to conquer it. If we can get past that on a closing basis, we should go up higher to 16600. On the flip side, good support lies at 16100. As long as that holds, we are in bullish terrain," said Manish Hathiramani, Proprietary Index Trader and Technical Analyst, Deen Dayal Investments.
On Tuesday, the Bank Nifty tried to sustain above 36200 but failed and closed almost flat. According to options data, the Bank Nifty is likely to face resistance on the higher side as 36200 and 36500 Call option holds significant OI. On the other hand, 36000 Put holds meaningful OI, which should act as immediate support.
~ ICICI Direct
'On the options front, the maximum Put OI for the 26th August series is at 15000 strike price with 50 lakh shares followed by 15800 & 16000 strike price. Meanwhile, the maximum Call OI for the 26th Aug series is at a 16500 strike price with 21 lakh shares followed by 16000 & 16300 strike price.
The Nifty rallying further to new record highs, the intermediate trend continues to remain firmly up. In fact, the index maximum concentration among weekly Nifty put options has shifted higher to 16200 from 16000 on Tuesday, while among call options, 16300 strike from 16200. This broadly suggests they expect the Nifty to rise above 16300 and do not expect the index to fall below 16200,' said Raushan Kumar, Derivative Analyst, IIFL Securities.
'Market situation in the last 35 hours of trading: Probably a trailer of things to come. Largecap to be on the driver's seat while Mid and Small Caps may continue to be on the backseat,' said Rahul Sharma, Director & Head - Research, JM Financial.
Our research suggests that 16200 is an important support level for the market in the short term and we can expect volatility in the market to expand and attain new levels of 16500. Gaurav Garg, Head of Research, CapitalVia Global Research
Nifty Bank index was marginally down to 36,020 level, dragged by losses in IDFC First Bank, RBL Bank, Punjab National Bank, State Bank of India
Nifty futures open interest has increased to the highest levels seen since March as range-bound movement seen in the last couple of months has eroded Nifty open interest significantly. The current open interest in the Nifty is more than 25% higher than that seen in the July series. On similar lines, net longs from FIIs have also increased sharply. Till we do not see closure of positions, positive bias should continue.
The Volatility index has moved back to sub 13 levels and there is no sign of any caution despite the Nifty making fresh lifetime highs. A buy on decline strategy should continue for the index till the volatility index remains below 14.5 levels.
~ ICICI Direct
"Going ahead, expect Nifty to extend its northbound journey and gradually head towards our revised target of 16500-16600 in the coming days as the index current OI (open interest) is more than 25% higher than that seen in the July series. On similar lines, net longs from FIIs have also increased sharply. Till we do not see the closure of positions, positive bias should continue. In fact, India VIX has moved below 13 levels and there is no sign of any caution despite the Nifty making fresh lifetime highs. Hence any temporary breather from here on should be capitalised to accumulate quality stocks amid the progression of Q1FY21 result season," said Raushan Kumar, Derivative Analyst , IIFL Securities.
The Nifty moved out of the prevailing range of 15600-15900 last week and gained almost 3% with the help of significant outperformance from the financial space. Significant buying from FIIs helped the index to surpass the psychological resistance of 16000. However, momentum has paused a bit among midcap and small-cap space where small cap index closed the week negative.
On the options front, significant option writing was experienced at 16000 Put base. We expect these levels to hold even in case ofsome profit booking in the short term. On the higher side, we believe Nifty may move towards 16450-16500 in the coming sessions.
~ ICICI Direct
Minor long build-up was seen in Nifty Futures’ where Open Interest rose by 0.7% with Nifty rising by 0.12%. Long build-up was also seen in Bank Nifty Futures’ where Open Interest rose by 1% with Bank Nifty rising by 0.6%.
~ HDFC Securities
"Nifty and Bank Nifty OI remains flattish. Additions seen at 16,200and 16,300 strangle while Bank Nifty saw addition at 36,000 and 36,2000 strangle. Expect Nifty to head towards 16,500 if we sustain above 16,300. Bank Nifty is expected to breakout above 36,200. Support at 16,150 and 35,700, respectively," said Rahul Sharma, Director & Head - Research, JM Financial.
Nifty traded between its support of 16150 and resistance of 16350 today. It made a high of 16320 and a low of 16180 and closed flat with 20 points in positive. The next up move in Nifty will be seen once it closes above 16350. The up move can extend to 16400 and 16450 in the next few sessions. As long as Nifty remains above 15900 its trend will remain bullish. Gaurav Udani, CEO & Founder, ThincRedBlu Securities
The markets have had a quiet day today - we did cross 16300 but failed to close above that. Once we do that, we can scale higher to 16500-16600. Since a good support range lies at 16050-16100, we can buy this market on dips or intra day corrections. Manish Hathiramani, proprietary index trader and technical analyst, Deen Dayal Investments
Nifty may test its support of 16200 and 16150 soon. Nifty will face resistance in the 16330-16350 range, once this resistance is crossed Nifty may see levels of 16400 and 16450. Longs can keep holding their positions as long as Nifty holds 15900 on a closing basis. It is advised to exit longs below 15900 on closing basis. Gaurav Udani, Founder & CEO, ThincRedBlu Securities
Going ahead, we expect index to extend its northbound journey and gradually head towards our revised target of 16600 in the coming month as it is 138.2% extension of mid June rally (15450-15915) projected from June high of 15915 is placed at 16575. Thus temporary breather from here on should be capitalised to accumulate quality stocks amid progression of Q1FY21 result season.
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"The Nifty current OI (open interest) is more than 25% higher than that seen in the July series. On similar lines, net longs from FIIs have also increased sharply. Till we do not see closure of positions, positive bias should continue. In fact, India VIX has moved below 13 levels and there is no sign of any caution despite the Nifty making fresh lifetime highs.Hence any temporary breather from here on should be capitalised to accumulate quality stocks amid progression of Q1FY21 result season.
In the coming session (current session), the trading spot band is between 16200 and 16350,which means further upsides are likely once the immediate resistances of 16350 are taken out and weakness could emerge if the supports of 16200 are broken." said Raushan Kumar, Derivative Analyst, IIFL Securities.
The chart pattern suggests that if Nifty crosses and sustains above 16350 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 16500-16600 levels. However if index breaks below 16180 level it would witness profit booking which would take the index towards 16100-15900. Nifty is trading above 20 and 50 day SMA which are important short term moving averages, indicating positive bias in the short term. Nifty continues to remain in an uptrend in the medium term, so buying on dips continues to be our preferred strategy. For the week, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 16500-16000 with a positive bias.
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For Bank Nifty, the index has seen large PUT writing at 36000 strikes. It has considerably dragged its supports higher as well. The CALL writing is seen at 36400 and 36600 levels. The expected trading range for the week for Bank Nifty can be from 35800-36600. Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services
Nifty has seen large PUT writing at 16200 and 16300 levels. This means that Nifty is dragged its supports higher for the week at 16200 unless a tactical shift occurs. This may also likely shift higher to 16300. The weekly options data suggest that the Nifty is opening up higher levels at 16400-16500 levels. The expected trading range as per options data as of Monday is 16200-16500 for Nifty. Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services