Trans-Tasman Bubble appears dead
Quarantine-free travel from Australia to New Zealand may not be possible for the rest of 2021, as Jacinda Ardern's government mulls a new approach to its border settings.
Over the last two days, Ms Ardern's government has both released and responded to declassified cabinet advice on how New Zealand could reopen to the rest of the world.
The cabinet advice makes for fascinating reading, and shows just how nervous the Delta variant makes policymakers in Wellington.
The reports have prompted New Zealand to speed up its vaccine rollout, and commit to the elimination strategy it believes is an optimal response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
It also makes clear the trans-Tasman bubble - at least as we've known it - is dead.
The bubble has been plagued by stoppages since it was opened in April.
Last month, Ms Ardern announced an eight-week pause through to September 18,
It appears Ms Ardern is softening the ground for a longer suspension.
In a nod to Sydney's outbreak, the Labour leader is categorical New Zealand won't open to places with uncontained community transmission.
Her government notes warily the capacity for COVID-19 - and particularly the Delta variant - to spread across state borders, making Ms Ardern is non-committal on future state-by-state assessments.
The leading author of the government reports, University of Otago professor and celebrated epidemiologist David Skegg, says he "doesn't see the way out" for outbreak-ridden NSW.
Those factors combine to spell a grim future for the trans-Tasman bubble.
"We'll be getting advice, closer to the end of September, on what we do with the trans-Tasman bubble," Ms Ardern said on Thursday in wellington.
"One of the criteria is that you can't have an uncontrolled outbreak ... because we are talking about an opening period which is while we're in the midst of our vaccination campaign."
New Zealand remains behind Australia's vaccine pace, with 35 per cent of adult Kiwis with one dose of vaccine, and 21 per cent fully vaccinated with two Pfizer shots.
COVID-19 Minister Chris Hipkins said Australians should expect changes to the bubble, should it reopen.
"It's likely to look different," he said.
"More testing. There could be state-by-state, but vaccination will play a big role."
In the first quarter of 2022, New Zealand is planning a loosening of its border settings.
It will categorise countries as either low, medium, or high risk - allowing free movement into NZ from low risk countries, quarantining those from high risk, and offering a modified isolation to those in the middle.
Ms Ardern wouldn't guarantee Australia - the first country New Zealand opened up to - would be in the low risk category.
"You'll see signals on how we'll treat Australia through to the course of the end of the year - and whether or not we feel comfortable taking a state by state approach in the new year," she said.
