What can South Florida and the Keys expect from Fred? Details on rain, wind, flooding

Howard Cohen
·5 min read

Fred is battered and bruised from its fight through Hispaniola’s jagged mountainous terrain. But, like a shark’s resolve for survival, we can’t count the tropical depression down and out.

Fred has moved back into nurturing waters near Haiti and Eastern Cuba and was forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move west-northwest toward the Florida Keys and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico early this weekend before moving northward into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later this weekend.

Whether Fred can reform and grow into a tropical storm or more, or less, South Florida can still expect a dousing from tropical moisture wrung from Caribbean waters.

“The biggest question is if the system will recover as it took a big toll in the mountains of the Dominican Republic,” said Anthony Reynes, senior forecaster with the National Weather Service in Miami.

“For now, we are seeing it as a rather weak, disorganized system,” he said.

But that doesn’t mean South Florida’s escaping ... something.

“There’s a field of clouds associated with [Fred] even if it doesn’t recover. Its remnants will still bring some cloudiness and showers to the area,” Reynes said as he eyed Saturday as the worst of the potential weather.

By Thursday morning, Miami Beach had already begun preparations for whatever Fred happens to be, said spokeswoman Melissa Berthier.

“We are deploying an additional 11 temporary pumps throughout the city that will assist the existing pump stations in alleviating potential flooding,” she said. “In addition, we have staff assigned to work around the clock starting Friday through Monday with additional crews on standby.”

Miami Beach will continue monitoring the forecasts closely and take necessary precautions, Berthier added.

Similarly, Monroe County Emergency Management has begun to alert residents in the Florida Keys to start preparing their properties now should conditions deteriorate by later Friday.

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How much rain?

The National Weather Service in Miami, deluged with calls from folks wondering “Wassup with Fred?” thinks rainfall totals of three to five inches are possible over Southwest Florida and even more, maybe four to seven inches possible over Southeast regions, Reynes said.

“There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across most of South Florida on Friday and a slight risk of excessive rainfall across the eastern half of South Florida on Saturday with a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across the remainder of South Florida,” the service said Thursday morning in its weather outlook.

The risk of flooding is because the grounds are still somewhat saturated from recent heavy cloudbursts that preceded Fred’s growth and approach this week.

Some of the coming storms could become strong and produce wind gusts near 45 mph, according to the service.

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Florida Keys

Since Fred’s forecast movement still flirts with the Florida Keys, meteorologists with the National Weather Service in Key West want people to be ready by Friday evening when the weather could turn crummy.

Expect possible tropical storm force winds, especially in frequent squalls, as well as hazardous marine conditions, the chance for isolated tornadoes and minor coastal flooding, according to the weather service.

The big rains could last through Sunday and bring three to five inches of rain each day — with isolated areas hitting up to eight inches, accodring to the Keys weather service. This means significant flooding is possible.

Monroe County Emergency Management officials’ preparation includes warning Keys residents along the island chain to begin storm preps, no matter Fred’s strength, Thursday.

This means, considering your sheltering options and securing homes, yards and boats before the weather deteriorates after mid-afternoon Friday. Tropical storm watches could be issued for the Keys sometime Thursday, emergency management said.

Quick tips

▪ Get your yard and property ready, emergency management suggests. Trim trees and hedges and cut shrubbery to reduce the risk of flying branches during high winds. But clean up that debris, don’t leave it lying around to fly about in high winds.

▪ Bring outdoor furniture inside, if possible, in case of high winds. Secure what you don’t bring inside. This includes trash cans.

▪ Shutters. At the moment, no one is saying board up or draw the shutters. But monitor the forecasts and be ready just in case. And remember, tape across the windows leaves a sticky mess and offers no protection. So don’t do that.

7 stupid things we do during a hurricane that can get us killed

▪ Secure your boats.

▪ Have a hurricane kit. It’s already August so you really should already have this in hand, but in case you don’t try to have nonperishable food, water, batteries, candles, flashlight, battery-powered radio and lights and your medications to last a couple days or so. And for your pets, too. This doesn’t mean you need to panic buy a palette’s worth of water, mind you.

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