With COVID-19 cases rising in Florida, what numbers can you count on?

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Florida has gained national attention as the state contributing the most new COVID-19 cases to the U.S. count.

But tracking the state’s COVID data became complicated, with discrepancies between figures provided by the Florida Department of Health and published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

And on Tuesday, after a frenzy of social media accusations because of an apparent record-setting pandemic day in Florida, the CDC and the Florida DOH adjusted all the COVID case counts and death tallies dating back to March 2020, which are displayed on the CDC site and collected by the state Department of Health.

The changes reflect adjustments based on accounts of when cases or deaths occurred rather than when they were reported to the state, according to CDC and Florida DOH statements. Ultimately, though, the changes do not reflect a more favorable picture of the course of the pandemic in Florida; the sharp peaks and dips have been flattened, but the cumulative counts are the same or higher.

Florida’s Department of Health said Monday that the federal agency had reported incorrect numbers for the recent weekend, making it appear as if the state set a new record for daily case counts. When health officials told the CDC, epidemiologists spent the day Tuesday sorting out the numbers, said Wessam Koury, a spokeswoman for the Florida Department of Health.

“We took this opportunity to ensure the data is as accurate as it can be,” Koury said. “We provided them a new data set based on our quality checks.”

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports COVID counts daily on a public dashboard. Florida shares statistics weekly with the public, but provides them daily to the federal government. The numbers rarely matched — although when averaged over a longer period they showed similar trends.

Koury said Florida health officials will now provide daily case counts for each day of the week and the weekend. The CDC previously had lumped together weekend numbers and divided them in half.

As record-breaking case counts and hospitalizations put Florida in the national spotlight — with the state accounting for nearly one of every four COVID cases — the newest discrepancy occurred Monday.

The Florida Department of Health quickly took to Twitter to say the CDC got it wrong — stating that the daily case count was lower.

The CDC did not respond to the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s request for an explanation but put out this statement to Spectrum News:

“Thank you for reaching out to CDC regarding Florida’s data on CDC’s website. CDC and the Florida Department of Health are working to update the data to correct the information by the date the case occurred. Corrected case counts by date should repost on CDC’s COVID Data Tracker.”

On Tuesday, the CDC updated its COVID case counts: Its tracker shows 15,322 new cases for Monday, 19,584 for Sunday, 21,487 for Saturday and 23,958 for Friday. The CDC also revised its daily death counts in Florida to reflect 16 additional COVID deaths for Monday, 21 for Sunday, 17 for Saturday and 43 for Friday.

With the revisions, Friday remains the day when Florida had the most new cases for a single day, 23,958.

However, the COVID hospital situation in Florida continued to worsen on Tuesday. The state set another record for COVID hospitalizations, more than 15,000, according to statistics from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

The federal agency reported 15,169 inpatient beds in use for COVID-19, an increase of 1,192 from Monday’s report. Only 231 hospitals reported their patient count, 20 hospitals fewer than the previous day. Broward County had the most new hospital admissions of any county in the country in the seven days leading up to Aug. 9, according to a national COVID-19 Community Profile report.

Child hospitalizations are rising too. On Tuesday, Joe DiMaggio Children’s Hospital in Hollywood had nine positive pediatric patients; five of them are in intensive care. The hospital has treated 160 children in the last 10 days with COVID symptoms.

The Florida Hospital Association released information on Tuesday, data from its own survey of members and from HHS as of Aug. 9.

—Current Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations: 14,787

—Percent of COVID patients above the previous peak in July 2020: 145%

—Percent of total hospital Inpatients with confirmed COVID: 32.5%

—COVID-19 patients in ICU: 20%

—COVID-19 patients on ventilators: 14%

—Hospitals expecting critical staffing shortage in next 7 days: 68% (an increase of 8% from 8/5)

Jason Salemi, an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida, said Floridians need to consider that all COVID data is fluid and Florida health officials backfill numbers regularly as more information is gathered.

Salemi, who tracks information on his website, said Florida health data is most accurate when viewed on a weekly basis.

“A lot of revisions happen behind the scene, but they should not be severe,” he said. “It’s an imperfect process. I do think the CDC numbers offer a decent estimate.”

Data scientist William Ku tracks Florida’s coronavirus pandemic on his website. Ku said Florida would instill more confidence in its COVID tracking if it would provide information on a daily basis, and offer more explanation of discrepancies.

“It’s much easier to accept the tiny changes from day to day, but we can’t do that anymore. It’s very confusing for analysts and others who want to keep track of the pandemic in Florida,” Ku said. “What’s the reason to report daily numbers only to the CDC? Why not report all of them to the public?”

Ku said now more than ever, Floridians need accurate, timely information. “Data is so crucial to understanding the delta variant, which is much more contagious than the original COVID-19,” he said.

On Tuesday, Koury said Florida will not return to reporting daily COVID numbers. “Weekly reporting has not and does not influence the department’s surveillance or response to COVID-19. This is a core function of the department. The weekly reports still stand and are published Friday.”

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