As Fred journeys through the Caribbean, a new tropical threat takes shape in Atlantic

Maura Kelly
·5 min read

As Tropical Storm Fred impacted parts of the Caribbean with strong winds and heavy rain on Wednesday, forecasters were tracking an emerging tropical threat that could soon follow in Fred's footsteps.

AccuWeather forecasters have been monitoring what is now Fred since it emerged as a tropical wave last week. It eventually became more organized as it crossed the Lesser Antilles and moved into the Caribbean Sea on Monday night. By Tuesday night, the feature strengthened into a tropical storm.

As of 2 p.m. Wednesday, Fred had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) as it moved onshore just west of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

This satellite image shows Tropical Storm Fred swirling near the southern coast of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. (AccuWeather)

Bands of heavy rain and gusty winds from Fred will continue to impact Hispaniola into Thursday, which can lead to some sporadic power outages as well as increase the risk for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas, said AccuWeather Meteorologist Tony Zartman.

But Fred is already facing quite a bit of adversity, with a difficult journey ahead as it moves over Hispaniola.

"Not only will Fred attempt to track across the longest part of the island," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty, "it will also struggle against the very rugged terrain of Hispaniola."

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The highest peak on the island rises over 10,000 feet (3,000 meters). This drastic change in terrain will increase the friction Fred experiences over land and could cause the storm to become less organized and lose wind intensity.

"Due to land interaction with Hispaniola, as well as some light wind shear in the area, the storm will likely struggle to maintain wind intensity, and it may briefly become a tropical depression once again," said Zartman.

However, AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski warned that instead of tracking across the island, the center of the storm can try to jump from the southern coast to the northwestern coast of Hispaniola, causing the center to re-form while never really crossing the mountains.

Regardless of how Fred gets to the northern side of Hispaniola, if a center of circulation remains after it emerges over the water to the northwest of island by Thursday morning, the storm can work to reorganize. However, rapid intensification is not expected as it continues to contend with land interaction from nearby islands and some light wind shear over the area.

According to Zartman, Fred is forecast to return to tropical storm strength (maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph) before the center of the storm nears Cuba Thursday morning.

Fred is forecast to track along the northern coast of Cuba as a tropical storm through Friday, bringing rain, wind and rough seas to the island. Again, how close to land the storm tracks will help to determine if the storm gains additional strength or not.

As long as Fred maintains tropical storm intensity, it is expected to bring wind gusts of 40-60 mph (60-100 km/h) to Hispaniola into Thursday morning with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph (113 km/h). These wind gusts are also expected along the northern coast of Cuba, but the strongest gusts are forecast to remain off shore.

Regardless of strength, Fred can bring widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) as it passes through the northern Caribbean Sea. Along the south-facing mountain slopes of Hispaniola, rainfall totals can climb to 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 18 inches (450 mm), most likely to occur in the highest peaks of the island. This amount of rainfall can lead to flash flooding, mudslides, washouts and road closures.

" Tropical Storm Fred is a less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale™ for Hurricanes in Hispaniola and Cuba due to the impacts expected from heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts," stated Zartman. The RealImpact™ is a 6-point scale with ratings of less than one and 1 to 5 and takes into consideration a variety of diverse, contributing factors, such as flooding rain, high winds and storm surge as well as the total damage and economic impact from the storm.

Depending on how Fred survives its trek through the Caribbean, it is forecast to make a turn to the north and bring impacts to the southeastern United States this weekend.

Residents along the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor this feature through the rest of the week for potential impacts.

Tropical Storm Fred has a track similar to Tropical Storm Elsa, which raced through the region during early July, but it is important to remember that each storm is different, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

Atlantic to stay active beyond Fred

AccuWeather forecasters are already monitoring a tropical wave tracking across the Atlantic Ocean for potential development late this week or into the beginning of next week.

This tropical low will have to battle elevated wind shear across the basin, but as it reaches the Leeward Islands in the eastern Caribbean, wind shear is expected to decrease, and the wave may have an opportunity to become better organized, explained Kottlowski.

He also added that the strength of Fred and how it can influence the Bermuda high over the Atlantic Ocean can plan a part in which direction this tropical wave moves into next week.

"At this time, it looks like this wave is destined to move into the Caribbean then the eastern Gulf of Mexico, similar to Fred, but with a track a bit more to the west," Kottlowski said on Wednesday, adding that this feature could bring impacts to the United States by the end of next week if it holds together.

The next name on the list of storms for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is Grace.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.

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