SARASOTA, Fla. – A disturbance swirling in the Caribbean was expected to become Tropical Storm Fred before it possibly heads toward Florida later this week, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday.
The system, currently named Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, moved through the southern Leeward Islands overnight Monday and was about 220 miles east-southeast of Ponce, Puerto Rico, on Tuesday afternoon, according to the center. It had 35 mph maximum sustained winds and was moving west-northwest at 18 mph.
A tropical storm has maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph.
Gradual strengthening was forecast, and the disturbance was expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday night, the center said.
The disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. A tropical storm warning was in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic.
Heavy rain is likely over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, which could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and potential mudslides. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.
Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday.
The system could intensify once it reaches the waters south of Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend, forecasters said.
“The system is being guided along to the west-northwest by the circulation around a large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said.
Florida and the Florida Keys could be in the system’s path. This scenario could unfold if the high-pressure area weakens and allows the system to turn more to the north, Kottlowski said.
There have been no named storms since Hurricane Elsa dissipated July 9; Fred would be the sixth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be active, NOAA said in an updated forecast last week: 15 to 21 named storms could develop; seven to 10 could be hurricanes.
An average season spawns seven hurricanes and peaks in August, September and October. If predictions hold true, this year will be a record sixth consecutive year of above-normal activity.
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Contributing: Doyle Rice