Covid could be even easier to eradicate than Polio because people are so desperate for an end to the pandemic, scientists claim
- Getting rid of Covid globally will be easier than eradicating polio, experts found
- But it will be harder than eliminating smallpox and many factors stand in the way
- Researchers called on the WHO to examine whether it should be attempted
Eradicating Covid is 'probably feasible' and it will be easier to eliminate than polio, scientists have claimed.
Vaccines, public health measures, such as face masks and social distancing, and 'unprecedented' global motivation could make it possible, according to researchers at the University of Otago in New Zealand.
But eliminating the coronavirus is 'much less' feasible than getting rid of smallpox, they say.
Factors including vaccine hesitancy and mutations that could make the virus more infectious or resistant to jabs could stand in the way.
Data shows 30 per cent of the world has now received a dose of a vaccine and 15.5 per cent are fully immunised, according to Our World in Data.
But only 1.1 per cent of people in low-income countries have received a single dose.
However, other top experts insist it will circulate for generations and eventually morph into an illness that resembles the common cold.
Securing a high vaccine uptake is one of the biggest burdens in eradicating Covid, along with the risk of more contagious or vaccine-resistant variants of the virus, according to researchers. Pictured: health worker administering a dose of the Pfizer Covid vaccine
Share this article
Polio used to be common around the world but cases fell dramatically in the mid-1950s when routine vaccinations were introduced.
There hasn't been a case in the UK since the 1980s.
Two strains of the virus behind polio have already been declared eradicated.
The only other one known to exist has been spotted in two countries.
Meanwhile, smallpox was declared to be eradicated by the World Health Organization in 1980.
These included vaccine effectiveness, how transmissible each virus is and how concerned people and governments are about the disease.
Experts gave the factors a score out of three in relation to each virus, with a higher figure meaning that factor was likely to help achieve eradication.
Covid had a mean score of 1.6, while smallpox received 2.7 and polio was calculated at 1.5.
Factors in favour of eliminating the coronavirus - and where it scored higher than the other illnesses - included the massive health, social and economic consequences of the pandemic and an 'unprecedented' global interest in controlling the disease, scientists said.
Public health measures - including border controls, social distancing, hand washing, ventilation, face masks and contact tracing - can compliment the rollout of Covid jabs, which can also help eliminate the virus, they found.
Meanwhile, factors making it more difficult to get rid of Covid include vaccine hesitancy and variants that could be more infectious or vaccine resistant.
But there are limits to how much the virus can evolve, so when it reaches 'peak fitness', current vaccines can be tweaked.
Other challenges include the cost of jabs, 'vaccine nationalism' - with countries receiving disproportionately more doses than others - and governments with 'anti-science aggression'.
Animals catching and transmitting the virus is another risk, the scientists said, but it so far seems to be 'fairly rare' for pets to catch the virus and when they do, they don't seem to re-infect humans.
Experts said their findings shows that further work to determine whether the world should be aiming to eradicate the virus.
The World Health Organization should lead this effort, but it could also be done by national bodies working together, they said.
Scientists need to consider whether Covid is achievable through available means and whether the benefits of it outweigh the costs, the researchers concluded.
The researchers, who were led by public health expert Professor Nick Wilson, said in the paper: 'While our analysis is a preliminary effort with various subjective components, it does seem to put Covid-19 eradicability into the realms of being possible.'
But Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said yesterday the virus will never be eradicated, but instead will become an endemic and circulate for generations.
Some scientists believe the virus will eventually morph into one that just causes a common cold, as immunity builds up over time, removing the need for stricter public health measures.
