VSIN’s MMA expert digs into the main event of UFC 265, which will be held in front of a packed house Saturday in Houston.
Ciryl Gane -350 vs. Derrick Lewis +280, heavyweights (265 pounds), interim championship
Third-ranked Gane defeated fifth-ranked Alexander Volkov last month in a five-round decision. The Frenchman controlled the pace and never experienced trouble in that bout as he displayed superior fight intelligence, deft movement, effective evasion of strikes and a full five rounds of cardio.
Gane sports a superior physique at 6-foot-3, 245 pounds, possesses profuse striking power and has risen to his current ranking with only nine professional MMA bouts after an undefeated seven-fight Muay Thai career. This young man is gifted with tremendous athleticism. He moves more like a fighter well under 200 pounds as opposed to one who competes at heavyweight. While athletic and powerful, Gane is also patient in the cage, which is the sign of an experienced, cagey fighter.
The caliber of Gane’s ground game is somewhat unknown because he has displayed little wrestling in past bouts, mostly because he has owned superior striking ability over opponents. But it’s naive to believe his coaches have not been drilling grappling and wrestling into him.
Gane has the intelligence, ability, strength and athleticism to take the most efficient approach to this fight, and that may well be to fold some ground-and-pound from top position onto his opponent, who is known to have only mediocre takedown defense. Besides dominating Volkov, Gane has done the same to Tanner Boser, Junior dos Santos and sixth-ranked Jair Rozenstruik. Respected MMA handicappers agree that Gane, who is versed in Muay Thai striking and kickboxing, is already a legitimate heavyweight contender.
Derrick Lewis is the No. 2-ranked heavyweight contender, and he has won four in a row. He owns a victory over current champion Francis Ngannou.
Lewis possesses tremendous natural power and incredible country strength. He’s explosive and destructive for up to 10 or 12 minutes, and he is well aware that, with his size, he must ration his output to make it for 25 minutes.
Lewis has been able to train more effectively these last several fights, and while he still tips the scales at 260-plus, his cardio, focus and determination have been improving. So it’s plausible he’ll be able to compete effectively in those championship rounds.
While Gane is a tactician who uses patience and intelligence, Lewis is a profuse power-puncher who makes no secret of his mission to seek and destroy using forward pressure to inflict blunt-force trauma. The contrasting styles should make for interesting viewing.
I believe Lewis will want to walk into a firefight with Gane, while Gane will be the fighter who utilizes movement, strike evasion and perhaps even a takedown to sap some of the power from Lewis, whose athleticism and explosion are not to be underestimated despite his portly physique.
Gane has more weaponry, is more savvy and, provided he maintains distance and exercises octagon control early, I see him having success later in the fight as the beast tires and Gane begins to inflict damage. How his fight just a month ago affects his performance remains to be seen, but some concern has been expressed that this turnaround is quick for such a young and inexperienced fighter.
One last salient fact: Lewis is from Houston. Judging in Texas is inconsistent and questionable on its best day. Should this fight make it to a close decision, don’t be surprised by the outcome.