Why Australia's international borders could be closed for months to come as the country could struggle to get 80 per cent of locals vaccinated

  • Australians to enjoy more freedom when 70 cent cent of over-16s are vaccinated
  • 70 per cent will see lockdowns less likely, 80 per cent will see borders reopen
  • Research reveals 70 per cent is feasible target but extra 10 per cent to be harder 
  • Relies on men under-40 rolling up sleeves and states ramping up vaccine rollout

Overcoming Covid-19 vaccination hurdles will be the ticket to Australia's international borders finally reopening and bringing an end to ongoing lockdowns.

Some coronavirus restrictions could be eased before Christmas under an amended national cabinet road map released by Prime Minister Scott Morrison last week.

Lockdowns will be less likely and jabbed Aussies will enjoy freedoms once of a 70 per cent vaccination rate of Australians over the age of 16 is reached, which an aim later this year.

No timeframe has been set for the target of 80 per cent vaccinated Aussies, which would see Australia's borders reopen for the first time since early 2020.

Australia's ticket to freedom also relies on more men aged under-40s rolling up their sleeves and states ramping out their vaccine rollout.

New federal government research based on current vaccination rates and attitudes, suggests that while 70 per cent is a feasible target, getting that extra 10 per cent will be tougher.

Some coronavirus restrictions could be eased before Christmas under an amended national cabinet road map released by Prime Minister Scott Morrison last week (stock picture)

Some coronavirus restrictions could be eased before Christmas under an amended national cabinet road map released by Prime Minister Scott Morrison last week (stock picture) 

Around 15.1 per cent of the population, or 3.8million Australians are fully vaccinated, five months after the national rollout began.

'Everything over that we will have to work hard for,' a source told the Australian Financial Review.

Of the 7.2 million Australians aged 20-40, just 10 per cent are fully vaccinated so far due to restricted access to jabs up until recently.

There's also a widening gap between the willingness of men and women aged under-40s to roll up their sleeves.

According to federal government figures, 18.2 per cent of Australians aged 30-34 have had their first jab while 10.7 per cent are fully vaccinated.

Women in this age group are almost 50 per cent more likely than men to be fully vaccinated, the Sydney Morning Herald reported.

If current rates of more than 100,000 jabs a day continue, Australia will reach its 70 cent cent vaccination goal by late November. 

Australia's international borders will likely remained closed until a 80 vaccination rate is reached. Pictured are domestic passengers at Sydney Airport last week

Australia's international borders will likely remained closed until a 80 vaccination rate is reached. Pictured are domestic passengers at Sydney Airport last week

But health experts are divided over the vaccination targets set by the national cabinet.

University of Sydney vaccine distribution expert Professor Julie Leask believes a 70 per cent vaccination target by the end of this year too is too optimistic.

'I reckon we'll be lucky to get to 60 per cent fully vaccinated by the end of the year, based on previous experience with new vaccine rollouts, how other countries with an unhindered by supply like Israel and the UK have gone, and how there are certain groups falling through the gaps,' she told Australian Financial Review. 

However  Deakin University epidemiologist Catherine Bennett believes Australia's target of the 80 per cent target is achievable by the end of the year 'at our current rate'.

She also described the national cabinet's 70 and 80 per cent targets as 'quite conservative. 

'We're saying we have to get to 70 per cent before we can really do much at all, so I think that is conservative, she told the Sydney Morning Herald. 

Overcoming Covid-19 vaccination hurdles will be ticket to Australians enjoying more freedoms. Pictured is a Melbourne health worker with a Pfizer jab

Overcoming Covid-19 vaccination hurdles will be ticket to Australians enjoying more freedoms. Pictured is a Melbourne health worker with a Pfizer jab

Grattan Institute health program director Dr Stephen Duckett believes the phased targets are too low to end lockdowns.

'It's a very puzzling plan, which is vague, risky, and the other point about it is there's no clear strategy to actually get there. What is the strategy to actually achieve the targets they've specified?' he said.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has previously said she wants 80 per cent of adults - or 62 per cent of state's population - to be jabbed before opening up.

She's hinted in recent days that vaccination rates will decide whether Sydney and surrounding regions will finally be released on lockdown as planned on August 29.

NSW recorded more than 200 cases for a third consecutive day on Monday.

'Can I stress that August is the month where we all should come forward and get vaccinated,' Ms Berejiklian said on Monday.

'It will be a combination of seeing where the case numbers are in a month's time as well as the rate of vaccination that determines what August 29 looks like.' 

NSW needs to get 9.2 million jabs in arms across the state to reach a vaccination target of 70 per cent, which  the Premier has repeatedly said would trigger an easing of lockdown restrictions.

'Vaccines are working extremely effectively,' she said. 'We still don't know of anybody in intensive care [in NSW] who has received both doses of the vaccine.'

'We are at 3.9 million jabs already. Five million jabs means we're halfway to the 80 per cent target and 9.2 million jabs gets us to 70 per cent.'

NSW's vaccination rate sits at about 15 per cent for those who have received both jabs and 32 per cent have received only one dose.

 At that rate, NSW could hit its target of 70 per cent coverage by early September.  

About 75 per cent of the population doesn't have an objection to getting vaccinated, according to the Prime Minister

'There are some hardcore against any sort of vaccination and there are others we have encourage to do this for themselves, their families, our community and the country,' he told constituents from his Sydney electorate last week.

'We've just got to keep providing those opportunities for people to go and get it.

'They're both great vaccines, Please take the opportunity to get them.'  

Around 75 per cent of Australia have no objection against the Covid vaccine, according to the Prime Minister (pictured, a woman being jabbed at Westmead Hospital)

Around 75 per cent of Australia have no objection against the Covid vaccine, according to the Prime Minister (pictured, a woman being jabbed at Westmead Hospital)

What are the four phases of opening up? 

A. Vaccinate, prepare and pilot (from July 14)

Arrival caps cut in half to 3,035 a week; early, stringent and short lockdowns if outbreaks occur; trials of seven-day home quarantine for vaccinated arrivals in South Australia; medicare vaccination certificates available on apps like apple wallet   

B. Post vaccination phase (when 70 per cent are jabbed, expected late this year)

Lockdowns less likely but possible'; vaccinated people face reduced restrictions; caps for unvaccinated arrivals increased; a larger cap for vaccinated arrivals with 'reduced quarantine requirements'; capped entry for students and economic visa holders  

C. Consolidation phase (when 80 per cent are jabbed, time not announced)

Lifting all restrictions for outbound travel for vaccinated travellers; no caps for vaccinated arrivals; increased caps for students and visa holders; more travel bubbles being set up with countries such as Singapore; booster shots rolled out 

D. Final phase (percentage or time not announced)

Uncapped arrivals for vaccinated people without any quarantine and uncapped arrivals for unvaccinated people with testing before departure and on arrival 

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Coronavirus Australia: Vaccination hurdles could see Australia's borders remain closed for months

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