Third Wave of Corona May Hit India This Month, Likely to Peak in October: Experts Who Predicted Second Wave

New Delhi: India may witness another rise in Covid-19 infections this month (August) with the third wave of corona peaking in October, a mathematical model by researchers predicted. According to estimates by researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively, rising cases will push the third wave with less than 100,000 infections a day in the best-case scenario or nearly 150,000 in the worst scenario, reported Bloomberg. They asserted that the upcoming third wave of Covid is unlikely to be as brutal as the second wave but states like Maharashtra and Kerala, that rare reporting a high number of corona cases might play a big role in skewing the picture.

Earlier in May, Vidyasagar, a professor at IIT and scientist involved in the Sutra Model which uses mathematics to project the trajectory of COVID-19, had said that if the vaccination drive against coronavirus is not ramped up and COVID-19 appropriate-behaviour is not maintained, there is a possibility of a third wave of the pandemic in 6-8 months.

On the other hand, K VijayRaghavan, Principal Scientific Adviser, had stated that as the virus mutates further, a third wave of COVID infection is inevitable and it is necessary to be prepared for new waves. But, two days later he said there may not be the third wave of coronavirus in the country, if strong measures are taken and effectively implemented at the state, district and city-level. “If we take strong measures, the third wave may not happen in all places or indeed anywhere at all. It depends on much how effectively guidance is implemented at the local level in the states, districts and cities everywhere.

 COVID-19 Cases on Rise in Kerala

Kerala recorded 20,728 fresh COVID-19 cases yesterday, pushing the infection caseload to 34,11,489, while 56 more deaths took the toll to 16,837. It was for the sixth day running that the state has recorded more than 20,000 fresh cases. Since July 27 there have been 1,28,373 more infections in the state. As many as 17,792 people have been cured of the infection since Saturday, taking the total recoveries to 32,26,761, leaving 1,67,379 active cases.

Malappuram accounted for the most number of cases (3,770), followed by Thrissur 2,689, Kozhikode 2,434, Ernakulam 2,246, Palakkad 1,882, Kollam 1,336, Kannur 1,112, Thiruvananthapuram 1,050, Alappuzha 1,046 and Kottayam 963.

India’s Daily COVID Cases

An increase of 2,766 cases has been recorded in the active COVID-19 caseload as the country logged 40,134 fresh COVID-19 infections in a span of 24 hours. The death toll from the pandemic climbed to 4,24,773 with 422 fatalities in a day.

The number of active coronavirus cases has increased to 4,13,718 and comprises 1.31 per cent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate was recorded at 97.35 per cent.