‘Understand, accept changed monsoon pattern to avoid future catastrophe’

The state witnessed unprecedented rains and flash floods this season with Vidarbha’s Amravati and Akola severely hit. Floods in Western Maharashtra were followed by landslides. According to Prof Kiran Kumar Johare, an internationally renowned cloudburst and meteorologist expert, the sudden rains are nothing but cloudbursts according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards. Johare, a former IITM scientist, runs a farmer welfare blog titled ‘Concrete information not guesswork’ through which he gives rain-related forecasts to farmers in Maharashtra. In an exclusive chat with TOI, Johare says cloudbursts are a reality and that the local administration must learn to deal with such natural calamities.
Excerpts…
Q. Your claims about cloudbursts are groundbreaking, but there are no takers?
A. According to the international standards, 25 millimetres (mm) or one inch of rain in 15 minutes or 50 mm in 30 minutes or 75 mm in 45 minutes or 100 millimetres or more in a period of one hour are considered as cloudbursts. Even the Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) website used to consider that rain falling at a rate of 100 millimetres per hour as a cloudbust till 2010. Researchers in Denmark, UK, US and many other countries, including India, use the term ‘cloudburst’ for this much rain in their scientific research papers. Unfortunately, in Maharashtra, our officials are using the confusing terms like ‘Ativrushti’ (heavy rains), Mahavrushti (very heavy rains) etc. which is not recognized by the WMO because they are unscientific, confusing, inaccurate and incomplete.
Q. Have you noticed any such ‘cloudbursts’ in Vidarbha region this year?
A: Unfortunately, Vidarbha and Marathwada regions are on the hit list of cloudbursts. On Sunday, July 11, at around 5.30am, a massive cloudburst was witnessed in Daryapur and Anjangaon Surji areas of Amravati district. Thousands of acres of farmland got submerged and crop was washed away. Last year, the rainfall in Marathwada increased by about 200 per cent and in places like Kannada, more than 1,000mm of rain was recorded. Agriculture in the whole of Marathwada was severely damaged. Now, East Vidarbha has been witnessing an increasing number of rains and cloudbursts. This will increase in the next few years due to the changed monsoon pattern.
Q. In what way has the monsoon pattern changed?
A. I have been claiming from the last 10 years or so that the monsoon pattern has changed. In 2019, monsoon rains began on July 15 and continued till November 15. In 2020, the monsoon season started in August and continued till December. In 2021, the real monsoon will start in August and rains will continue till December. The rains we are receiving in June and July are flash rains or heavy pre-monsoon activity. Our standards mainly depend upon the rainfall parameters. So, once a rainfall of that much parameter is recorded, our authorities announce that monsoon has arrived, settled in etc. As the monsoon pattern has changed, we must plan our farming activities accordingly. Farmers must get early warnings.
Q. Is it possible to give early warnings regarding cloudbursts?
A. It’s very much possible for the weather department to provide not just the forecast but the accurate information about the amount of rain in our suburbs, villages or areas. India has the latest technology and super computers ready and functioning. The technology is new, but the users are old. It is a ‘superstition’ to assume that the weather prediction system will improve automatically. If given an opportunity and access to data and control of various weather-related equipment, I can surely claim that my team will be able to provide accurate information to people on their mobile phones every ten minutes.
Q. Have you ever predicted flash rains in the past?
A. When I was conducting research work with IITM on October 4, 2010, Pashan in Pune had received 182mm rain in 90 minutes. We predicted this cloudburst quite early and saved many lives. In 2013, a cloudburst alert in Gadchiroli was delivered in advance by us. Recently, on September 19, 2020, my team delivered a message regarding cloudbursts in four places in Nashik. As alerts were served through a private system, many farmers were the beneficiaries. My blog ‘Andaz Nave Mahiti’ (Information not guesswork) has become quite popular over the years. If people get a cloudburst alert early, they can keep their important documents safe, take their vehicles and livestock to a safer place to save major losses.
Q. Is there any difference in rainfall and cloudburst?
A: Cloudburst means lethal rainfall of 100 millimetres per hour or more. This is often referred to as flash floods. Heavy rains in a short period of time cause landslides. Houses or walls collapse. The size of water droplets in cloudburst is about the size of a peanut or even bigger. Lightning flashes and thunder can be heard. The sky looks white. Rainwater flows from the eyebrows and literally makes visibility difficult. All this was experienced in Amravati district earlier this month. The pictures are scary.
Q. Is there any permanent way to predict cloudbursts in advance?
A. As the time to come will be difficult, farmers as well as the administration need to take immediate steps to prevent the collapse of agriculture. A collective effort is also needed to face the situation with courage. There is a need to install rain gauges in 43,722 villages in Maharashtra and for this to happen, the Gram Panchayat should invest its funds. My team is ready to provide the necessary technical assistance for online training and rain gauge. We are committed to the cause of farmers. They can reach me at https://www.kirankumarjohare.org/