Virus spreading rate above 1 in all districts in Kerala

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The effective reproduction number (R-value) of Covid-19 in many districts in the state was high in the last week of July. If the state’s R-value was 1.22, the virus spreading rate in Malappuram was 1.37. Interestingly, Wayanad, the least populated district in the state, too had a high R-value of 1.29.
In India the effective reproduction rate was 0.97 in July. This R-value is an indicator of how quickly the infection is spreading and it describes how many people, on average, get infected from one Covid positive person. The pandemic can only come to an end if the figure is sustained under 1. Going by the statistics, all the 14 districts in the state had effective reproduction number more than 1 in the last week of July.
Malappuram had the highest Rvalue in the last week ranging from 1.32 to1.42. However, in Thiruvananthapuram the R-value was between 1.05 and 1.1 during the same period.
“The spreading rate will be more in Malappuram due to the high density of population. Moreover, this district has the highest population of the NRKs. The difference from the first wave and now is that if we isolated positive people in the hospitals during the first wave now the positive people are under home care. Hence, the spreading rate has become high among the family members,” said Dr A Althaf, associate professor, community medicine, Medical College Hospital, Manjeri.
Among the 14 districts, Thiruvananthapuram had the lowest Rvalue of 1.1 in the last week of July. The other districts with lowest effective reproduction number are Alappuzha (1.13) and Kollam (1.15). Wayand had the R-value ranging between 1.22 and 1.29 during the last week.
“In Wayand, most number of cases are reported outside the tribal areas. The spread in the community is more since positive people are remaining under home care. More cases are being detected and more people are being isolated at their homes itself. This might be the reason behind the high numbers now. The contact tracing has been more intensified such that all the primary contacts people are being tested now,” said Dr G R Santosh, who is working in the tribal areas of Wayanad for Covid management.
Dr Althaf said that from district to district, there is a variant in the virus. “The present R-value shows that all the districts are having high reproduction number. We cannot say in all the districts the Delta variant alone is resulting the spread. There are several variants now prevailing in the state and hence needs a scientific study to find out how these variants are behaving in each place. But one thing is sure we are going to have the present spread for more days,” he said.