America fails to make it into the top five places most likely to survive the end of the world because its giant borders mean it is vulnerable to mass migration, study finds
- The US just missed the top 5, in part because it's close to 'external' megacities
- Such cities are vulnerable to displacement and could cause a migrant crisis
- It ranked high on its amount of fertile land and manufacturing capabilities
- New Zealand took the top spot, thanks to its temperate climate and isolation
- Other cities in the top 5 include Iceland, Australia, Ireland and the UK
The US is well positioned to survive a global collapse from climate change, but it didn't crack the top 5 because its giant borders make it vulnerable to mass migration.
Researchers at Anglia Ruskin University narrowed down a list of 20 countries most prepared for climate change by using additional criteria to see where life is most likely to stay the same.
They took into account the fertility of the land, the proximity to large cities whose people could be displaced, and the capacity to produce energy and other products for itself and others.
The study found that the isolated island nation of New Zealand is in the best position to keep its robust and complex society intact, but America is susceptible to mass migration in the event of a catastrophe because it's too close to megacities on its borders.
A study by Anglia Ruskin University found New Zealand was best prepared to handle a global collapse spurred by climate change, thanks to its isolated status and temperate climate
The US missed the top five list of countries that can handle a global collapse from climate change disruptions. Above, the Tamarack Fire burns near Lake Tahoe, California on July 17
Rounding out the top five are Iceland, Australia, Ireland and the United Kingdom.
Island nations in 'temperate latitudes' are most likely to survive as 'lifeboats' in the event of a severe climate catastrophe.
On the other hand, tropical and subtropical land may become 'unproductive and depopulated' due to the risk of erosion and degradation from higher temperatures, according to the study published on July 21 in the journal Sustainability by the college's Global Sustainability Institute.
The US has a very high proportion of arable land (44.5 percent), direct access to oceans and abundant renewable resources and manufacturing capacity, but it's also close to 'external' megacities in Mexico and Canada that would be susceptible to displacement.
Additionally, a large swath of the southeast is located in humid subtropical climates.
Study author and professor Aled Jones told DailyMail.com that the US made it just below the top 5 list.
'The main reason would be because of the isolation score,' he said.
'We looked at if countries were collapsing, who was connected to which other countries. The top 5 were all islands, so part of it was about protecting borders.'
The country has seen the effects of climate change firsthand this year, with wildfires ripping through the West Coast and floods from tropical storms inundating New York City's subways.
The US has seen the effects of climate change first hand in recent days. Above, a person wades through a flood near a subway station in New York City on July 8
The US should 'support other countries' to avoid major displacements around the world. Above, cars are stranded in a flood under Route 22 in Newark, New Jersey on July 17
The US scored high on self-sufficiency thanks to a good capacity for manufacturing. Above, President Biden tours a truck manufacturer in Macungie, Pennsylvania Wednesday
President Biden recently re-joined the Paris Climate Accords, which former President Trump withdrew from in 2017.
Jones said the best thing the US could to do mitigate a collapse would be to help other countries avoid one.
'Because we're so interconnected and so dependent on other countries, we're not totally isolated, so the main point is - to avoid having to militarize borders and do something dramatic like that - is look at what makes people resilient and to support other countries in the world in order to withstand other shocks.'
New Zealand, the highest scoring country in the shortlist, has a 'limited manufacturing capacity,' according to the study, but it's saved by a low population, a high proportion of land that can be used for agriculture (43.2 percent) and its status as an archipelago at 'mid southern latitudes with no nearby large or heavily populated landmasses.'
Researchers based their analysis on a list of 20 countries compiled by the University of Notre Dame.
The UK made the top 5 thanks to its temperate climate and relative isolation from external megacities. Above, a flood courses through Bewdley, Worcestershire on February 2020
'We weren't surprised New Zealand was on our list,' Jones told The Guardian.
'We chose that you had to be able to protect borders and places had to be temperate. So with hindsight it's quite obvious that large islands with complex societies on them already [make up the list].'
The analyzed the countries ability to survive 'de-complexification,' defined as a condition where the 'complexity of human societies at global scale would undergo a large and broad-spectrum (i.e., affecting all parts of societies, technological systems and environments) reduction.'
The study points to the rapid pace in which human population has grown in a short period of time since the advent of the Industrial Revolution, along with the disruption this has caused to the environment.
Less than three percent of the world's surface area is 'fundamentally intact,' leading to an ongoing sixth extinction episode in which 'Earth's biosphere is currently under pressure at levels which occur only infrequently even over geological timescales.'
The UK inched into the shortlist at the bottom, along with Iceland.
It has a very high fraction of arable land (71 percent), and it's an island in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean at mid-high northern latitudes.
It has a high-tech economy and abundant natural resources.
'We were quite surprised the UK came out strongly,' Jones said.
'It is densely populated, has traditionally outsourced manufacturing, hasn't been the quickest to develop renewable technology, and only produces 50% of its own food at the moment. But it has the potential to withstand shocks.'
