Covid: PM warns against 'premature conclusions' as cases fall

The prime minister has urged people to "remain cautious" and not jump to "premature conclusions" following the latest fall in UK Covid cases.

Boris Johnson said: "This is still a dangerous disease."

The number of new infections in the UK fell for the sixth day in a row - but is still more than 10 times higher than the levels seen in early May.

Meanwhile a senior government adviser said he was hopeful the worst of the pandemic would be over by October.

Epidemiologist Prof Neil Ferguson, who previously said 100,000 Covid cases a day was "almost inevitable" after England's unlocking on 19 July said: "The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations and death.

"And I'm positive that by late September or October time we will be looking back at most of the pandemic.

"We will have Covid with us, we will still have people dying from Covid, but we'll have put the bulk of the pandemic behind us."

Mr Johnson said: "I've noticed, obviously, that we're six days into some better figures. But it's very, very important that we don't allow ourselves to run away with premature conclusions about this.

"Step 4 of the opening-up only took place a few days ago. People have got to remain very cautious, and that remains the approach of the government."

On his first visit after self-isolating for 10 days, the PM acknowledged frustration over the vast number of people being pinged by the NHS app and being told to quarantine.

"I totally understand that, particularly now as we're starting to see some better figures," he said.

"But I think everybody understands that this is still a very dangerous disease.

"We do need to use the tools that we have. Self-isolation is the one that we've got. I urge people to do it."

The new test-to-release system would come in on August 16 but "until then, please could everybody stick with the programme", he said.

The PM declined to confirm or deny reports that students might be required to prove their vaccination status to attend lectures or stay in halls of residence, only stating: "Young people are doing an incredible job of coming forward to get vaccinations."

Prof Ferguson, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told BBC Radio 4's Today programme it was "too early to tell" if Covid cases would reach 100,000 a day, but he was "happy to be wrong - if it's wrong in the right direction".

He said: "We're not completely out of the woods, but the equation has fundamentally changed."

"Clearly the higher we can get vaccination coverage, the better. That will protect people and reduce transmission - but there is going to be remaining uncertainty until the autumn."

Meanwhile, the Scottish Government's National Clinical Director described how the country's case rate is "dramatically falling".

Professor Jason Leitch told the Today programme that Scotland once had the highest case numbers in five out of the top 10 local authorities in the UK, but now has none in the top 150.

He said: "We've now seen hospitalisations fall. Around 3% of positive people get admitted to hospital but they are now younger, relatively healthy and discharged quicker. But some stay, and we've had many deaths over the last few days."

He added that the Scotland-England Euro 2020 match had caused a spike in cases due to fans travelling.

The number of new coronavirus cases in the UK fell on Monday for the sixth day in a row, and now stands at 24,950.

The figures are a drop of 15,000 on 39,950 cases a week ago, and the lowest level in three weeks.

While the number of cases is falling, the number of patients in hospital with Covid-19 is still rising - although at a slower rate than during previous waves because of the impact of vaccinations.

The latest data shows there were 5,238 in-patients on 23 July, compared with 4,612 a week ago. There were also another 14 deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test.