Delta variant outbreak could peak in two to three weeks, Gottlieb says

Delta variant outbreak could peak in two to three weeks, Gottlieb says
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Cassidy Morrison
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Former federal regulator Scott Gottlieb said Monday that new COVID-19 case increases due to the delta variant in the United States will reach a peak in the next few weeks, using the downward trend in new infections in the United Kingdom as a reference.

“If the U.K. is turning the corner, it’s a pretty good indication that maybe we’re further into this than we think and maybe we’re two or three weeks away from starting to see our own plateau here in the United States,” said Gottlieb, the Food and Drug Administration commissioner under former President Donald Trump.

MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS CALL FOR COVID-19 VACCINE MANDATE FOR HEALTHCARE WORKERS

The delta variant in the U.K. caused a spike in new cases starting in early June. The outbreak has recently sharply declined. While the seven-day average number of cases on July 21 exceeded 47,000, the updated weekly average number of new cases on Sunday fell to about 37,700, according to the New York Times.

Virologists have looked to the U.K. over the past year for clues about how mutated strains of the virus will affect the U.S. For instance, the alpha strain that contributed to a surge in the U.S. was first discovered in southern England in September 2020 and became the dominant strain in the U.S. by April 2021.

“If we're already seeing healthcare systems get saturated in certain states like Florida, against the backdrop of a lot of the vulnerable populations being vaccinated ... it’s a pretty good indication there's a lot of infection underneath those hospitalizations that we're just not detecting as taking place in the younger population that isn't getting as sick,” Gottlieb said Monday.

Nearly 80% of all seniors, deemed the most vulnerable to severe illness from COVID-19, have been fully vaccinated, according to federal data. Younger people are more prone to getting infected with the delta strain because far fewer have been fully vaccinated. A changing COVID-19 testing landscape would also contribute to the underreporting of cases, Gottlieb said. People who have been confirmed positive using at-home tests are less likely to report results to federal authorities.

“Our ascertainment, the percentage of people who are presenting for testing and actually getting recorded, is actually quite low right now. So this infectious wave must be far more pervasive than what we're detecting, which means we're further into it than what we believed,” Gottlieb said.

THE COVID-19 VARIANTS HEALTH OFFICIALS ARE WATCHING

To date, about 69% of all U.S. adults have received at least one dose of vaccine, while 60% have been fully vaccinated. Federal regulators are now debating whether to recommend booster shots as concern builds about the possibility that the delta variant could evade some of the protection afforded by the COVID-19 vaccines.

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Tags: Healthcare, News, Coronavirus, Scott Gottlieb, U.K., Vaccination, CDC, FDA, Trump administration, Biden Administration

Original Author: Cassidy Morrison

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