When handicapping the college football preseason, the first destination for my eyes is the Heisman Trophy futures board. It is home to the longest odds and where the most options are truly in play.
That’s not the case for the national championship. Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State hover in the 4/1 range, and even longer shots like Oklahoma and Georgia don’t exceed 7/1.
The odds for the national championship are just reminders that the deck is stacked in favor of the Power 5 schools. That gives bookmakers the upper hand for most college football futures. Preseason Heisman futures, however, somewhat minimize that power.
Undoubtedly, the next Heisman winner will come from a current Power 5 school, just as everyone before him since Andre Ware in 1989 and Ty Detmer in 1990. Still, this expansive board allows bettors a legitimate opportunity to scan up and down to identify a number of potential plays.
This won’t be based on making statistical projections for 12 regular-season games, but instead will be about breaking down all the factors needed to gain valuable media attention, which fuels this popularity contest.
A new dynamic is in play this season: The ability for players to be compensated for the use of their name, image and likeness. Previously, Heisman campaigns were spurred by sports information directors who creatively developed marketing strategies to gain attention and secure votes.
Then came the cable sports television explosion, with every game or highlight basically a nationally televised commercial for the top candidates. Now we need to see what happens with the rise of sponsored social media posts driving publicity.
Here is an early look at Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler, the Heisman favorite at 15/2. In Monday’s Bet Smart, we will examine some of the other top contenders and a few longer shots.
From a qualitative standpoint, Rattler has every reason to be the top candidate. His name alone will draw attention, as will the comparisons to Patrick Mahomes. He comes into 2021 on a top-five squad that should contend for the national championship.
Somewhere in that 15/2 is a built-in Lincoln Riley tax, because the preseason stories about the returning QB will likely include references to his coach’s Heisman success with Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray.
Riley is 0-3 in the College Football Playoff, but that plays no role in Heisman voting.
Rattler has relatively few obstacles in his way to a Heisman right now, but 15/2 just isn’t worth tying up a portion of a college football bankroll before any games are played. Last year’s leading candidates, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields, were about 4/1 before the season began, but COVID-19 altered their odds.
Lawrence and Fields got as high as 12/1 and 25/1, respectively, by Week 15, about the time DeVonta Smith was 50/1, according to SportsOddsHistory.com.
Pandemic issues may be diminished, but what happened last year demonstrates there should be little rush to bet the top candidate too early when other variables inevitably will arise.
The best time to address a Rattler bet is in early October after road games at Kansas State and Texas. One average game will likely bump up his odds to a better price before the Baylor and Iowa State games in mid-November, which could put him back on track.