Winning a Lions Series in South Africa is one of rugby’s greatest challenges, yet never has the playing field been levelled to this extent.
ll three Test matches will be played at sea level and in an empty Cape Town Stadium. Both squads are in bio-secure bubbles and the hosts are just about recovered from a Covid-19 outbreak in their camp that disrupted their preparation.
The world champions have played just one Test match, against Georgia, since they claimed the William Webb Ellis trophy in November 2019. Their domestic franchises have been confined to playing each other during the pandemic. It’s been a rough couple of years.
Rarely, if ever, have the Lions gone into the first Test of a series against South Africa with the bookies calling it a scratch game.
In the professional era, the odds are largely stacked against the success of the tourists and that, in part, is a factor in what makes these events so compelling.
This year, things are very different. Will the result go the way of the visitors? It’s certainly possible, but it still seems unlikely.
The Lions have had their own challenges. Knowing that touring in a country under severe lockdown restrictions, while needing to maintain the integrity of the bubble, the coach handed out plenty of opportunities in the early weeks of the tour.
That was despite the knowledge that there was only five matches in South Africa before the series and thus cohesion was sacrificed at the alter of keeping spirits high.
So, it is difficult to know what to expect from this collection of players who have never been on the same team before.
Form picks like Ali Price and Duhan van der Merwe have sailed through big wins over poor teams without ever experiencing the kind of pressure they’ll face from the world champions this evening.
The Lions’ key partnerships are all untested. Only Elliot Daly and Robbie Henshaw have started together on this tour, the second-rows were in the same scenario four years ago but otherwise it’s all pretty new.
In a sport that values cohesion so highly, it’s a risky selection strategy.
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Gatland has left quality and experience out of his side and his squad in the hope that form wins the day.
Up front, his team face the ultimate challenge from a Springbok pack that is not at the same level it was in 2019 but still has a formidable look.
Tadhg Furlong will be a key man for the tourists. If he can handle Ox Nche’s power at scrum time and get his hands on the ball in open play, then the Lions will get on the front-foot quickly.
Conversely, if the Wexford man is having a quiet day then the Lions will be in trouble. He has spoken about how the Test Series four years ago passed him by to an extent, now he wants to make his mark.
Alongside him, Alun-Wyn Jones and Luke Cowan-Dickie need big games. Perhaps it isn’t the starting front-rows we should concern ourselves with, it’s when Steven Kitshoff, Malcolm Marx and Frans Malherbe roll off the bench to face Rory Sutherland, Ken Owens and Kyle Sinckler that the real drama begins.
Cowan Dickie will come under aerial pressure out of touch, but the Lions’ lineout has looked strong so far and they’ll hope to have some joy on Bongi Mbonambi’s throw.
It is what Gatland’s men do when they come down with the ball that will count. Their maul hasn’t really got going on tour, the lack of time with Alun-Wyn Jones in the saddle could be costly.
Alongside the skipper, Maro Itoje can be a transcendent figure capable of dominating games. He was outplayed in the World Cup final and will need to have a big game here against Eben Etzebeth.
Behind those three, Courtney Lawes is picked for impact off the blindside of the scrum, while Tom Curry is another with a point to prove from the World Cup final. Jack Conan has the biggest game of his life, but he’s risen to every occasion to date.
Winning the forward battle is key, because if the Springboks get front-foot ball then they have the weapons behind the scrim to win the game.
Their back three is lethal, in particular the magical Cheslin Kolbe.
They have the better half-backs with the energetic Faf de Klerk and the calm, collected Handre Pollard combining well. Their centres are well established and capable of breaking games open with the ball and closing the door in defence.
The Lions’ midfield will be fine, but their half-backs are a concern.
Dan Biggar is a fine out-half with a warrior spirit, but he’s not at the level of some of his predecessors. Inside him, Price is an exciting player when things are going his way but we’ve yet to see him tested.
Stuart Hogg’s capacity to play-make will help, but will they be on the same page from the start? We won’t know until they try something in the face of Springbok pressure.
The Boks will bring aggressive line-speed and incredible physicality. They have more weapons in their arsenal, while their officer corps is more established and used to winning big games.
One moment of ill-discipline could knock the series off kilter, but despite the level playing field the Boks still hold the aces.
Verdict: South Africa 24 Lions 18