It’s only midweek and already the scoreboard is ticking over. First the Lions got a head-start with the decision to bin Joburg and keep the rest of the tour in Cape Town. Easier to breathe at sea-level, so long as you don’t have the ’Rona.
e understand Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber were working very hard to get the Second and Third Tests on the Highveld. So, keen to regain some altitude and level the series, Rassie jumped the gun on the team announcement schedule with his unveiling of the Bash Boks, albeit with a conventional 5-3 split between forwards and backs on the bench. Not quite a full bomb squad, as he likes to call them, but a heavyweight unit all the same.
The timing was a statement of intent which left the Lions in a vacuum - one rendered more uncomfortable by the leaking of their own squad. That version was accurate bar the make-up of the bench. If Warren Gatland had begun to breathe a bit easier this was a little bit of unwanted hurry-up.
The leaked version, on Tuesday evening, put WhatsApp groups into overdrive, primarily over the wisdom of a 6-2 split on the bench. The official announcement ended that conversation, which was good news for Liam Williams and his family/supporters, and bad news for Iain Henderson’s clan.
Selection is a skill in itself. Never is it harder to effect sensibly than on a tour where the preamble to the main course is curtailed and confused. If truth becomes the first casualty in war then form is the first victim on a makey-up tour like this.
Firstly there is no room to establish it; secondly it’s unreliable, in this case because of the dramatic swing in the standard of opponents.
Instead you get calls made on a player’s history, or what you hope he will deliver. Gatland is a loyalist by nature so he would be comfortable with this. Other decisions are made on the basis of the most recent positive image being the lasting one.
Conor Murray has a foot in both camps here. It was interesting to see some of the comment after the South Africa ‘A’ clash on his struggle to put pace on the game. Jeez, who knew tempo was not Murray’s thing?
Of course that would look a bit worse against quality opposition like the Boks, dressed up as South Africa ‘A’. Equally for Ali Price, who has nudged Murray onto the bench, it’s easier to look good against the Stormers, as he did last weekend.
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Picking Price is both an insult to Murray - who has gone from stand-in captain to stand-aside scrumhalf – and a declaration of intent about the pace the Lions want to set on Saturday. The first bit was a bad shout from Gatland in putting Murray into the gap left by Alun Wyn Jones. The second is a good call.
Price is no Antoine Dupont but then no one else is either. It’s just over a year since he nailed down the starting spot for Scotland, by which point he was three years on the international scene. If the Lions forwards can get some front-foot ball then Price will make it better. If not they are doomed.
These respective selections illustrate the emphasis coaches put on the last half hour. Perversely Tadhg Beirne’s ability to impact a game has gone against him here. Gatland wants the benefit of that around the 50 minute mark, but why not get it from the start?
Why not put heat on the South African breakdown straight away with Luke Cowan-Dickie, Beirne, Jack Conan and Tom Curry all on the field at the same time? Add in Maro Itoje. Think of the panic in home ranks to fill every breakdown as soon as possible.
Across town in the Springbok camp Erasmus has gone for his usual impact force. Well, in the front row anyway. Malcolm Marx is the best hooker in world rugby, as good over the ball as at the set-piece. Along with Steven Kitshoff and Frans Malherbe it’s a combination made for scrummaging. Instead the Boks will start with a front row that looks off the pace. Why risk having to climb a mountain in the last half hour when you could attack from the start?
That raises questions about Gatland’s front row selection. It’s hard to fathom how Rory Sutherland is on the bench ahead of Mako Vunipola. If things work out as Erasmus hopes for 50 minutes then he can clock off for the last lap.
But if he is under pressure then aside from his five forwards on the bench – serious operators every one of them – he has three backs who will bring precious little to the party. Consequently there is a huge weight on the shoulders of Handré Pollard, for Elton Jantjies is not the man you want to steer you home.
Murray, Owen Farrell and Liam Williams are all made for that. Consider however the key criterion will be to have 15 men on the field. It may not happen on Saturday but it’s hard to think the series will not be shaped by a high shot.
Given the stakes, especially for the world champions, the battle will be to control their heart rates and be accurate on technique. They have a lot of men already short of a gallop, so that’s a heavy load to carry. This is not the time to run out of breath.