BUSINESS LIVE: Surge in pay rings alarm bells for pensioners; Asos sees sales growth slow amid poor weather and Covid fears; City watchdog vows to become more 'assertive'

  • New data shows the number of open job posts reached pre-pandemic levels
  • In the three months to May, annual total pay growth hit 7.3%, ONS said 
  • Online retailer Asos saw sales growth slow down in the last few weeks 
  • Financial Conduct Authority vows to become more 'assertive' in its approach 

Fresh figures published by the Office for National Statistics this morning have revealed that the number of job vacancies in Britain surpassed pre-pandemic levels in the three months to June. 

The ONS said there were 862,000 jobs on offer in Britain between April and June, which is 77,500 more than in the same quarter in 2020.

The ONS said the rise was driven by 'hospitality, wholesaling and retailing'. The number of people on payrolls also grew, up by 356,000 in June, the figures show.

But, the ONS said the number of payroll workers remained 206,000 below pre-pandemic levels, at 28.9million. 

In the three months to May, annual total pay growth hit 7.3 per cent and annual regular pay grew 6.6 per cent.

  • Jane Denton

    Host commentator

09:29
'Markets aren't making waves today'

Danni Hewson, an analyst at AJ Bell, said: 'If the FTSE 100 was a swimmer asked to tread water for as long as possible, it would score a gold medal. The market is stubbornly refusing to make waves and has gone nowhere since May.

'Today’s session is no better, with the UK stock index slipping 0.3% to 7,070 with oil and pharma stocks acting as a drag.

'We’re now in the second quarter earnings season but any positive messages from large corporates do not appear to be improving investor confidence. That’s not a good sign.

'China’s second quarter GDP figures were slightly better than expected, but there is still a sense of unease about the country’s economic outlook. A similar feeling is spreading to other countries and suggesting that the post-Covid rebound may find it harder to keep going at a strong pace.

'This might warrant ongoing support from central banks and governments, which in theory is positive for markets, but investor sentiment seems to be waning. Expectations have been so high for this massive economic surge, but a more lacklustre outlook could impact investors’ willingness to keep putting money into riskier assets.'

08:57
'Jobs recovery continues in the North of England'

Nye Cominetti, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: 'The momentum generated by the return to work surge in May has continued into June, with much of the North now within touching distance of pre-crisis employment levels.

'Encouragingly, the jobs recovery is broad-based with vacancy levels rising in nearly every sector of the economy.

'But these encouraging signs must not breed complacency among policy makers. The UK’s jobs recovery is far from complete, and big challenges lie ahead as the spread of the virus continues, and the furlough scheme ends in October – just as unemployment support is set to be cut.'

08:47
'Surge in pay rings alarm bells for pensioners', HL expert warns

Sarah Coles, a personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: 'The figures lay bare the challenge that Rishi Sunak has to wrestle with.

'When you compare it to last year, pay inflation in the three months to May was a massive 7.3%, and in May the annual rise was 8.6%.

'If these kinds of wage hikes feed into the state pension triple lock, the government faces paying out billions of pounds more than planned.

'In May we started comparing wages against three months of the first lockdown, when hours fell away, millions were furloughed, and pay fell dramatically, so a big part of the rise is due to the fact we’re comparing wages to such a low level.

'It’s also affected by the fact that over the past 12 months, the number of people employed in lower-paid jobs has dropped, which automatically pushes average wages up too.

'However, if you take the pandemic out of the equation, pay has followed a gradual and steady upwards path over the long term, and recent rises have followed a similar pattern.

'The easiest way to see this is if you compare May this year with May in 2019, when pay is up 7.1% over the two years.

'The issue for the government is that if it sticks with the triple lock in its current form, a big rise in state pensions doesn’t just cost them more this year. This increase is locked in for good, so the extra cost stretches off into the far distance. The triple lock just can’t cope with sudden and spikey wage changes.

'Sunak has already suggested he may be rethinking the role of the triple lock in future, and these figures indicate that an element of smoothing applied to the wage figures could fit the bill.

'It would mean the spikes are evened out to a more gradual rise, so pensioners keep the incredible value of the triple lock, and the government doesn’t have to scrabble around to try to find billions of pounds in its budget.'

08:42
'Next few months will provide clear picture on jobs and pay'

Danni Hewson, financial analyst at AJ Bell, said: 'The next few months will bring big changes and will finally give us a clearer picture of where any permanent damage has been done. 16-24 year olds, so badly impacted by the last 15 months, are now starting to get back into the work force, although that change is still relatively slow.  

'Will there be the right jobs in the right places for the right people with the right skills?  That’s an age-old conundrum and one that looks to have been exacerbated by the massive economic shock the country has just lived through.

'Yes, there are positives in this latest set of figures and reasons to be optimistic about the country’s continued drive down the economic road to recovery.  But the last reopening boost will come and go and it’s clear the momentum has slowed at least for now.'

08:30
A guide to Capital Gains Tax: Who pays it and on what?

In 2018, it was estimated that the total net wealth of private households in Britain was £14.6trillion, with £5.9trillion of that in property assets. 

If you own assets, such as property, that you want to sell or dispose of, you could be liable for Capital Gains Tax. 

However, there can be a lot of confusion around paying CGT, how it is calculated and when it applies.

08:29
Energy price cap forecast to rise by £150 next month

The energy price cap is expected to increase by as much as £150 when the new level is announced next month, experts are predicting.

As a result, standard variable tariffs will probably soar to record high, according to Energy Helpline.

The rising cap is mainly due to the wholesale energy market, where gas prices have increased by 55 per cent since January. They are now at their highest level since 2005 and continue to rise.

With wholesale costs making up nearly 40 per cent of a dual fuel bill, experts are predicting a significant increase in the price cap and bills.

08:28
Financial Conduct Authority vows to become more 'assertive'

The UK’s financial watchdog has outlined plans to overhaul its practices and vowed to be faster at spotting fraud and poor behaviour by banks.

Bosses at the Financial Conduct Authority said £120million will be invested in bolstering its data capabilities over the next three years to crack down on fraud and misconduct.

These include strengthening rules on financial promotions to protect investors, improve standards on pension advice and taking a more proactive approach to spot scams and high-risk investments.

The plans come less than a month after MPs on the Treasury Select Committee said the FCA needed a culture change following the collapse of mini-bond firm London Capital & Finance.

LCF went bust in 2019 after raising £237million from 11,000 small investors and a report by Dame Elizabeth Gloster last December found the FCA failed to properly regulate and supervise the business.

She called on the regulator to focus on improving internal authorisation and supervision processes.

In an apparent nod to the report, the FCA said it would be 'proactive at the boundaries of the perimeter' of its regulated markets – having previously pointed out the LCF model did not fall under its remit.

08:25
Asos cautious as 'volatility remains

Online fashion giant Asos voiced caution over how the rest of the pandemic will play out as said it expects volatility in the months ahead.

The retailer also highlighted that profits are being squeezed in part due to increased freight costs and global supply chain disruption.

But bosses remain optimistic for the future, highlighting the ever-growing demand for online clothes and a boom in sales during the four months to 30 June – despite high streets reopening as lockdown restrictions eased.

Customers have also taken advantage of the recent lockdown easing, with more dresses and “occasion wear” rising in popularity.

The company said in an update to the stock market: 'Trading in the last three weeks of the period was more muted, as continued Covid uncertainty and inclement weather, particularly in the UK, impacted market demand.

'We anticipate a measure of volatility to continue in the near term, given the rapidly evolving Covid situation worldwide.'

08:18
Pay growth 'broke new grounds' in the three months to May

Martin Beck of the EY Item Club, said: 'Pay growth broke new grounds in the three months to May, reaching 7.3% year-on-year, the highest since the series began in 2001.

'But employees returning to work from furlough and the concentration of job losses over the last year in low-paid roles continued to boost the headline number.

'These effects should fade over time, particularly if job creation skews towards lower-paid roles in areas such as hospitality and leisure as the recovery proceeds.'

08:15
'A robust jobs market, but a little looser than thought'

Martin Beck, senior economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: 'The latest labour market numbers showed job creation continuing to benefit from the economy’s reopening.

'The number in work in the three months to May rose 25,000 on the previous quarter, while unemployment fell 68,000. And timelier PAYE data showed 356,000 more people in paid employment in June, building on earlier significant gains over the spring.

'This has undone almost 80% of the negative impact on payroll numbers since February 2020.

'However, the ONS has revised population estimates to better reflect the demographic impact of the pandemic, and this has revealed a bit more slack in the labour market than previously thought. The Labour Force Survey jobless rate in the three months to May dipped to 4.8% from 5% in the previous quarter.

'But the latter was revised up by 0.1 percentage points, while the employment rate was cut by 0.5 percentage points. However, the pandemic has left a relatively small negative impact on the labour market when set against the fall in GDP.

'And while the unemployment rate may creep up in the second half of 2021 as the furlough scheme winds down, joblessness likely peaked late last year.'

08:14
More job vacancies open now than before the pandemic, ONS says

According to the Office for National Statistics, there are more job vacancies now than there were before the pandemic, as unemployment creeps slowly down after a year of job losses.

The number of open jobs between April to June 2021 was 77,500 above its pre-pandemic level in January to March 2020, according to the ONS.

There were 862,000 job vacancies between April and June, the ONS added. This is the first time it has been this high in 15 months.

Matthew Percival, director for people and skills at CBI, said: 'Vacancies exceeding pre-Covid levels is a further sign of demand returning and employers creating jobs.'

He added: 'Yet businesses' ability to meet this demand, and support the recovery, is being challenged by staff shortages.

'As Covid cases rise, firms are facing the double difficulty of hiring workers and more employees self-isolating.'

08:10
Good morning...

So far this morning, the FTSE 100 index is down 0.17 per cent or 12.20 points to 7,078.99. And the FTSE 250 index is down 0.34 per cent or 78.31 points to 22,671.73.

BUSINESS LIVE: Surge in pay rings alarm bells for pensioners

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