Despite much-delayed onset, experts expect normal monsoon in Delhi

NEW DELHI: After the delayed onset of monsoon over Delhi on Tuesday, late by almost a month from the earliest prediction of June 15, India Meteorological Department said the rainy season will be ‘normal’ or ‘below normal’ in the capital. From June 1 to July 13, the capital recorded a rain deficit of 65% of the normal for the period. However, Met officials said even though the monsoon arrived late in the city, that deficit was likely to be covered during the season.
Kuldeep Srivastava, scientist at IMD and the head of Regional Weather Forecasting Centre, said, “The monsoon period in Delhi is expected to remain normal or below normal. The main rain activity is usually recorded from July 10 to the last week of August. Heavy spells of rain mostly happen in August, but the capital may experience one or two spells of heavy rains this month too.” He cautioned that this could vary for a longer duration, depending on the meteorological conditions prevailing at a particular time.

R K Jenamani, scientist at India Meteorological Department, informed, “There is a possibility of very light rain or drizzle on July 15 and 16.” According to IMD, rainfall between 15.6mm and 64.4mm is described as ‘moderate’, while ‘heavy rainfall’ is recorded when the precipitation measures from 64.5mm to 115.5mm.
In June, IMD had forecast a slightly ‘below normal’ monsoon for Delhi this year. While the normal mark for the June-September period is 648.9mm of rain, Delhi received 576.6mm last year and only 404.3mm in 2019. Delhi has received ‘above normal’ rainfall only three times in the last 11 years, according to IMD data from 2010 till 2020.
This year, the monsoon rains reached the capital after a delay of 16 days from the normal date of June 27. Last year, it arrived two days early, but the monsoons withdrew from Delhi on September 30 with an overall 20% deficit. The normal date of withdrawal of the monsoons from the city used to be September 21 until its revision to September 25 last year.
Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting agency, expected a late withdrawal of monsoon from Delhi. “The trough, which is the main driving factor of monsoon, is presently over the central part of the country, passing from Gujarat to west-central Bay of Bengal across Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and north Andhra Pradesh. The low pressure area which is over Gujarat and west-central Bay of Bengal may be weakened by July 15 or 16. The rainfall may be moderate to heavy in many parts of northern regions, including Delhi, from July 17 to 19,” said Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather.
Palawat added, “Some recovery in rain is expected by July-end but the intensity of rains is predicted to be higher in August and September. Evolving La Nina conditions are likely to commence between August and September, leading to enhanced rainfall activity. There are chances of a late withdrawal of the monsoons this year. The overall rainfall is likely to be near normal.”