Political ‘roadkill?’ NC candidate says moderate Democrats have losing odds

Erica Smith gets the question a lot: Can a progressive win in North Carolina? She answers with another question: Can a moderate?

Smith, who defines herself as “the only true progressive” of the three leading Democratic primary candidates, is a quarter of the way through a 100-county tour of North Carolina. Her campaign acknowledges she has a hill to climb to win the Democratic primary scheduled for March 8.

Recent fundraising reports show that Smith is lagging behind state Sen. Jeff Jackson and former North Carolina Chief Justice Cheri Beasley, who have both raised well over $1 million for their campaigns. Smith has reported raising about $220,000, plus an additional $85,000 in loans.

“We need to increase the amount of money,” said Karthik Ganapathy, an advisor to Smith’s campaign. “We want to be able to fully fund a campaign that gets in front of people.”

A former state senator, Smith is the only candidate among the top three Democrats to have a policy page on her website (Jackson has a page dedicated to his legislative record). She is also the only one to have run for U.S. Senate before, losing in 2020 to Cal Cunningham in the primary by 22 percentage points.

Ganapathy said Smith’s team is confident they could beat a Republican in the general election. Frontrunners in the Republican contest are former Gov. Pat McCrory, U.S. Rep. Ted Budd and former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker.

Getting there will be Smith’s first hurdle. She’s counting on the idea that voters are fed up with moderate, middle-of-the-road politics, particularly after COVID-19 shuttered many businesses and left people worried for their health — financially and physically.

During a stop on Sunday in Gastonia, she told her audience that her granddad gave her some advice: “The only thing in the middle of the road is roadkill.”

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Winning the primary

As Smith ramps up her campaign with a 100-county tour, Ganapathy said the team is looking to other states to glean lessons on how to run progressive campaigns. He acknowledged that “there’s a harder path for anti-establishment candidates.”

In the case of Charles Booker, a Kentucky progressive who ran for U.S. Senate last year, progressive groups “flew in at the last moment,” Ganapathy said. Booker lost in the primary to Amy McGrath, a moderate, who lost to Mitch McConnell in the general election.

In North Carolina, moderate Democrats have also not fared well in statewide Senate races. Cunningham lost to Thom Tillis in 2020. As an incumbent Richard Burr, whose seat candidates are vying for in this race, has beat two Democratic candidates by a combined 15 points.

North Carolina’s Senate election will be one of the most contested races in 2022, with both parties vying for control of the chamber.

Both Smith and Beasley are Black women. If they win the general election, they’d be the first Black senator from North Carolina. Ro’shaun McClendon, the vice chair of the Gaston County Democratic Party, said the diversity of the Democratic ticket “is something that needs to be celebrated more.”

“I am strongly pleased to see women of color thriving and getting the attention that they are receiving in politics,” he said. “Even in the post -Obama era it still feels like a rare occasion seeing that.”

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Building a coalition

Smith hopes her progressive policy points will win over the state’s more liberal voters, but also that her background as a minister and as someone who grew up on a family farm in rural North Carolina will broaden her base.

Having a rural background “changes your whole perspective,” said Smith, who grew up in Northampton County.

“We need more public servants who understand the struggle and the dynamic, and can fight for those policies that can close that rural-urban divide,” she said.

Smith also promotes the idea that she’s “unbought and unbossed,” saying that she would refuse corporate PAC money. In 2018, Smith made the same claim, though she did receive about $13,000 between 2016 and January 2019 from entities with ties to corporations including CSX Corporation, AT&T, Merck, Charter Communications, Dominion and Duke Energy, according to The News & Observer.

On how her relatively low fundraising numbers could impact her chances, Smith says campaign spending alone will not win Democrats the election.

In Kentucky, Smith said, McGrath lost to McConnell despite raising a record amount of money. In the third quarter of 2020, McGrath raised $36.8 million, double that of her opponent.

“The message matters, the messenger matters,” she said.

Getting out the vote

If the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates are any indication, North Carolinians preferred the moderate Joe Biden by a large margin. Biden received 43% of votes in the primary, while his closest competitor, Bernie Sanders, won 24%.

Still, in the general election, one of every four Democrats in North Carolina didn’t vote. Only 60% of people ages 18-25 voted, and only 65% voted between the ages of 26 and 40.

Ganapathy, the campaign advisor, said part of Smith’s strategy is to awaken those non-voting residents, both in the primary and general elections. Whether they come out in the general — and give Democrats a better shot at winning — will be determined by whether they are excited about the candidate, he said.

“There are hundreds of thousands of North Carolina Democrats who are hungry for big, bold, progressive ideas,” he said, adding that not embracing those ideas has often led Democrats to losses. “We’re losing these pretty winnable races because our approach is wrong.”