Buoyed by the profitable as many as 27 seats in native physique polls in Surat held earlier this 12 months, Aam Aadmi Party has now skilled its weapons on Gujarat Assembly elections scheduled for December 2022. In the Surat Municipal Corporation elections held in February 2021, the BJP obtained the very best seats (93 out of 120) however AAP gained as many as 27 seats rising because the opposition. Congress went out for a duck.
So now, AAP is assured that it may possibly lure the enterprising Gujaratis by providing freebies because it does in Delhi. This, regardless of the disastrous governance by the Delhi authorities led by AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal himself. To make some noise forward of the elections, AAP has roped in moneybag realtor Mahesh Savani, who’s accused of kidnapping and extortion, and a Gujarati journalist Isudan Gadhvi, maybe to offset the venom that has come out of its chief Gopal Italia.
Gujarat has historically been a two-party state – individuals are both BJP (or in latest instances Modi) loyalists or Congress loyalists. There isn’t any in-between. This is why there isn’t a vital regional occasion. Further, Since 1998 when Keshubhai Patel led the BJP to victory, Gujarat has at all times had a BJP authorities. An whole technology has grown up in solely BJP dominated acknowledged. So with AAP leaping into the sector, here’s what we are able to count on.
Ugly hood of caste politics
Kejriwal might have promised that he’ll change politics, however he by no means stated he would change it for the higher. This is why caste politics is being raised. You see, Congress in Gujarat was the pioneer of caste politics. Former Chief Minister and tall Congress chief Madhavsinh Solanki had introduced within the ‘KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim)’ concept for vote financial institution politics.
AAP is simply taking it ahead. Ahead of the 2017 Gujarat meeting elections, AAP had sided with the Patidar group the place now Congress chief Hardik Patel was main an agitation for reservation as OBC group. Italia is one such Patidar chief who was an in depth Hardik Patel aide and now President of the Aam Aadmi Party in Gujarat.
An RSS chief in Surat whereas chatting with OpIndia stated that Aam Aadmi Party has tried to consolidate the Patidar and Muslim voters. Patidars are disgruntled with BJP and Muslims has been a conventional vote financial institution for Congress. “Aam Aadmi Party is not a direct threat, but it will definitely create a dent and BJP will have to fight harder to retain the power. It is an unprecedented 25-year anti-incumbency the BJP is facing. Gujaratis may just want to give AAP a chance,” he stated.
Can AAP kind authorities in Gujarat?
A senior journalist from Gujarat whereas chatting with OpIndia stated that it could be an excessive amount of of a fantasy to think about AAP will really kind the federal government in Gujarat. “AAP is making disgruntled BJP supporters join its party by creating a ‘mahaul‘. Kejriwal wanted to tap into the Patel vote bank during the Patidar agitation. There is an artificial discontent amongst the Patels where they want to become leaders themselves, like Hardik Patel, who played the caste card to emerge as a leader. Patel community got carried away by his rhetorics but when he joined Congress, they were disillusioned,” he stated.
He additional added that within the 2017 elections, the Patidar group voted for Congress as a substitute of BJP. However, this time round, they might vote for AAP, making Congress come out as an even bigger loser. “AAP is relying on the 25-years anti-incumbency. Kejriwal thinks people are fatigued by BJP presence. For the first time in 2017, the BJP seat tally went below 100 even though there was a slight increase in vote share,” he added that whereas AAP might get a few seats, these 10-15 seats it might win can be conventional Congress seats.
“There is no sign of revival of Congress in Gujarat,” an RSS chief from Surat stated. He, nevertheless, expressed fears that whereas AAP and Congress might not kind authorities in Gujarat on their very own, if BJP fails to cross the bulk mark, the 2 events might forge an alliance and are available to energy. “If Congress can ally with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, what can stop it from joining hands with AAP,” he stated.
BJP doesn’t even contemplate AAP vital sufficient to take them critically
The BJP in Gujarat, nevertheless, is unperturbed with Aam Aadmi Party making noise. “We do not take them seriously. They are too insignificant to even be considered a real threat. They must fight elections as India is a democracy and if they do win seats, good for them. Robust democracy is important. But Gujaratis are logical and hardworking people. These promises of free electricity which has voltage fluctuation other issues won’t sit well with Gujaratis,” a senior BJP chief instructed OpIndia.
Gujarat is a two-party state
Gujarat has historically been a two-party state. Till Keshubhai Patel fashioned the first-ever BJP authorities within the state in 1995, Gujarat had just one non-Congress Chief Ministers. Babubhai Patel of Janata Party, who was CM for rather less than a 12 months in 1975 throughout Indira Gandhi imposed Emergency and once more for about three years in 1977.
In 1996, Shankersinh Vaghela, a former BJP chief stop the occasion and floated his personal political occasion, Rashtriya Janata Party. With the exterior help of Congress he turned the second non-Congress Chief Minister of Gujarat. He needed to step down after Congress threatened to withdraw help and one other RJP chief Dilip Parikh turned the CM. Later, the occasion was merged into Congress.
In 2007, Gordhan Zadafia, who was the Gujarat Home Minister when the 2002 Gujarat riots broke out, floated his personal political occasion Mahagujarat Janata Party. In 2012, forward of state meeting elections, Keshubhai Patel floated a political occasion, Gujarat Parivartan Party. Zadafia later merged his occasion with Gujarat Parivartan Party which finally merged into the BJP.
Since March 1998, Gujarat has solely had a BJP chief minister.
While it might be too quickly to make predictions on who might win the elections, however one factor appears positive that Congress might find yourself being pushed additional into oblivion as BJP might proceed to realize from AAP’s entry.