Kerala, Maharashtra in the state to worry with a spike in covid cases.
Kerala and Maharashtra from the very first wave are at a peak in the rise in covid cases. This has highlighted the concern of a renewed wave of covid cases in these states.
A high `R` or the reproduction rate of Covid, value means the falling national active caseload - on Monday it was around 4.5 lakh, the lowest since late March - must be viewed with caution, particularly since the decline is sluggish, a study by scientists from Chennai`s Institute of Mathematical Science suggests.
Maharashtra - which reported 8,535 new infections on Sunday to add its active load of 1.19 lakh cases - has seen its `R` factor climb from 0.79 in mid-May to 0.84 by May 30 and 0.89 by end-June. The most recent data indicates its `R` factor is now close to 1.
Kerala - which reported 12,220 new cases to take its active load to 1.15 lakh - saw its `R` factor briefly cross the 1.0-mark earlier this month; recent data suggests it remains dangerously close to that level.
"The difference seems small... but it indicates the exponential rate of increase. Even a .1 change can make a big difference going forward, in terms of how many active cases there will be," Dr Sitabhra Sinha, lead researcher on the study, said.
An `R` value of 1 means one person will, on average, infect one other person.
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