Number of 'extremely hot days' could increase FOURFOLD from 10 to 37 per year if global temperatures rise by just 7.2°F, Met Office warns
- Experts looked at the weather impact of different levels of global warming
- Including on extremely hot days, heavy rainfall, drought and cold conditions
- The worse global warming gets, the more severe weather the UK will experience
- That will include more extremely hot days above 77F, up from 10 to 37 annually
- It will alsi lead to more flooding as well as more periods of severe drought
- 'These high-impact events can cause significant disruption across the UK affecting sectors such as health, transport, agriculture and energy,' they said
There could be a fourfold increase in the number of 'extremely hot days' in the UK, if global average temperatures rise by just 7.2 F, the Met Office has warned.
Experts examined how high-impact weather events such as extremely hot days, heavy rainfall and cold conditions are affected at different levels of global warming.
The study, published in the journal Climatic Change, found that the worse global warming gets, the more severe weather the UK will experience.
That will include more extremely hot days above 77F, more flooding but also more periods of drought, according to Met Office climate change experts.
'These high-impact weather events can cause significant disruption across the UK affecting sectors such as health, transport, agriculture and energy,' they warned.
There could be a fourfold increase in the number of 'extremely hot days' in the UK, if global average temperatures rise by just 7.2 F, the Met Office has warned
The study, published in the journal Climatic Change, found that the worse global warming gets, the more severe weather the UK will experience
Currently days exceeding 77F could rise from around 10 days a year now to 37 days
The UN Paris Agreement commits countries to take actions to limit global temperatures from increasing by more than 3.6F by 2100.
A different study published in Nature Climate Change in January found that the average temperatures had already increased by 4.1F above pre-industrial levels.
It found that we were on the 'worst case scenario track' for climate change.
If this is the case, with temperatures rising by a global average of as much as 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit, then the UK is in for a difficult time, the Met Office says.
Currently days exceeding 77F could rise from around 10 days a year now to 37 days.
However if we manage to keep global temperatures from rising by more than 3.6F then 'extremely hot days' will increase from 10 to about 18 per year.
The Met Office says that even at this level it poses an 'increasing risk to human health from extreme heat.'
The number of days of high-impact heavy rainfall in the UK leading to severe weather warnings could rise by three days per year under the worst case scenario.
Currently, there are around seven days per year in England and Wales with intense and prolonged rainfall that could lead to river flooding.
With a 7.2 degree Fahrenheit rise in global temperature the number of heavy rainfall days could increase to 11 days per year.
Under a lower 3.6F rise in global temperature, it is expected England and Wales will receive nine days per year of intense and prolonged rainfall.
It isn't just hot and rainy days that will change, the number of days where temperatures fall below 32F (0C) are going to become less frequent if temperatures continue to increase along the lines of the worst case scenario.
Currently, there are around seven days per year in England and Wales with intense and prolonged rainfall that could lead to river flooding
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With a 7.2 degree Fahrenheit rise in global temperature the number of heavy rainfall days could increase to 11 days per year
Currently there are around 50 days per year where temperatures dip below 32F each year in the UK, but if temperatures rise by 7.2F then this would drop to 12 days.
With a lower 3.6F rise then we would expect to see it drop to 34 days per year, still lower than the current 50 but not as low as the worst case scenario.
Counterintuitively, as well as higher levels of rainfall, there will be longer periods of long-term droughts if temperatures rise by a 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit.
Droughts at least as severe as those seen in 2010 will increase by 146 per cent. If temperature increases don't exceed 3.6F then they will be 86 per ent more frequent.
Lead author Dr Helen Hanlon, said the more we warm the planet through human-induced climate change, the more severe the UK weather will become
Droughts at least as severe as those seen in 2010 will increase by 146 per cent. If temperature increases don't exceed 3.6F then they will be 86 per ent more frequent
Lead author Dr Helen Hanlon, said the more we warm the planet through human-induced climate change, the more severe the UK weather will become.
'Severe weather can impact us in a number of ways, from our health, to flooding, food availability and transport issues,' she said.
'The paper shows that the increase in high-impact weather is reduced if global warming is kept as low as possible, showing that efforts to reduce human-induced climate change will curb the most severe impacts of future weather in the UK.'
With changes evident at even 3.6F of global warming, this is a reminder that even with the most optimistic global emissions mitigation scenarios there is still a need for adaptation, the study authors said.
This will include an increase in the amount of long-term planning and risk assessment activities across sectors in the UK.
The authors used simulations from the UKCP18 12km high resolution 'Regional Climate Model'.
As well as causing future impacts, human-induced climate change has already influenced extreme weather in the UK.
Researchers say climate change made the 2018 record-breaking UK summer temperatures about 30 times more likely than it would be naturally.
Currently there are around 50 days per year where temperatures dip below 32F each year in the UK, but if temperatures rise by 7.2F then this would drop to 12 days
With a lower 3.6F rise then we would expect to see it drop to 34 days per year, still lower than the current 50 but not as low as the worst case scenario
A separate study found that the extreme heavy rainfall in October 2020 without human-induced climate change would be a 1-in-300 year event, but is now a 1-in-100 year event.
Professor Jason Lowe, Head of Climate Services at the Met Office, said this is part of the picture for what our future weather and climate will look like.
'Crucially it sits alongside other studies, such as those examining the risks from wildfire and floods, helping to create as full a vision of the future as possible.
'The more insight we have on our future world, the more opportunity there is to plan for it.'
The findings have been published in the journal Climatic Change.
Revealed: MailOnline dissects the impact greenhouse gases have on the planet - and what is being done to stop air pollution
Emissions
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the biggest contributors to global warming. After the gas is released into the atmosphere it stays there, making it difficult for heat to escape - and warming up the planet in the process.
It is primarily released from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, as well as cement production.
The average monthly concentration of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere, as of April 2019, is 413 parts per million (ppm). Before the Industrial Revolution, the concentration was just 280 ppm.
CO2 concentration has fluctuated over the last 800,000 years between 180 to 280ppm, but has been vastly accelerated by pollution caused by humans.
Nitrogen dioxide
The gas nitrogen dioxide (NO2) comes from burning fossil fuels, car exhaust emissions and the use of nitrogen-based fertilisers used in agriculture.
Although there is far less NO2 in the atmosphere than CO2, it is between 200 and 300 times more effective at trapping heat.
Sulfur dioxide
Sulfur dioxide (SO2) also primarily comes from fossil fuel burning, but can also be released from car exhausts.
SO2 can react with water, oxygen and other chemicals in the atmosphere to cause acid rain.
Carbon monoxide
Carbon monoxide (CO) is an indirect greenhouse gas as it reacts with hydroxyl radicals, removing them. Hydroxyl radicals reduce the lifetime of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
Particulates
What is particulate matter?
Particulate matter refers to tiny parts of solids or liquid materials in the air.
Some are visible, such as dust, whereas others cannot be seen by the naked eye.
Materials such as metals, microplastics, soil and chemicals can be in particulate matter.
Particulate matter (or PM) is described in micrometres. The two main ones mentioned in reports and studies are PM10 (less than 10 micrometres) and PM2.5 (less than 2.5 micrometres).
Air pollution comes from burning fossil fuels, cars, cement making and agriculture
Scientists measure the rate of particulates in the air by cubic metre.
Particulate matter is sent into the air by a number of processes including burning fossil fuels, driving cars and steel making.
Why are particulates dangerous?
Particulates are dangerous because those less than 10 micrometres in diameter can get deep into your lungs, or even pass into your bloodstream. Particulates are found in higher concentrations in urban areas, particularly along main roads.
Health impact
What sort of health problems can pollution cause?
According to the World Health Organization, a third of deaths from stroke, lung cancer and heart disease can be linked to air pollution.
Some of the effects of air pollution on the body are not understood, but pollution may increase inflammation which narrows the arteries leading to heart attacks or strokes.
As well as this, almost one in 10 lung cancer cases in the UK are caused by air pollution.
Particulates find their way into the lungs and get lodged there, causing inflammation and damage. As well as this, some chemicals in particulates that make their way into the body can cause cancer.
Deaths from pollution
Around seven million people die prematurely because of air pollution every year. Pollution can cause a number of issues including asthma attacks, strokes, various cancers and cardiovascular problems.
Asthma triggers
Air pollution can cause problems for asthma sufferers for a number of reasons. Pollutants in traffic fumes can irritate the airways, and particulates can get into your lungs and throat and make these areas inflamed.
Problems in pregnancy
Women exposed to air pollution before getting pregnant are nearly 20 per cent more likely to have babies with birth defects, research suggested in January 2018.
Living within 3.1 miles (5km) of a highly-polluted area one month before conceiving makes women more likely to give birth to babies with defects such as cleft palates or lips, a study by University of Cincinnati found.
For every 0.01mg/m3 increase in fine air particles, birth defects rise by 19 per cent, the research adds.
Previous research suggests this causes birth defects as a result of women suffering inflammation and 'internal stress'.
What is being done to tackle air pollution?
Paris agreement on climate change
The Paris Agreement, which was first signed in 2015, is an international agreement to control and limit climate change.
It hopes to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C (3.6ºF) 'and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C (2.7°F)'.
Carbon neutral by 2050
The UK government has announced plans to make the country carbon neutral by 2050.
They plan to do this by planting more trees and by installing 'carbon capture' technology at the source of the pollution.
Some critics are worried that this first option will be used by the government to export its carbon offsetting to other countries.
International carbon credits let nations continue emitting carbon while paying for trees to be planted elsewhere, balancing out their emissions.
No new petrol or diesel vehicles by 2040
In 2017, the UK government announced the sale of new petrol and diesel cars would be banned by 2040.
However, MPs on the climate change committee have urged the government to bring the ban forward to 2030, as by then they will have an equivalent range and price.
The Paris Agreement, which was first signed in 2015, is an international agreement to control and limit climate change. Pictured: air pollution over Paris in 2019.
Norway's electric car subsidies
The speedy electrification of Norway's automotive fleet is attributed mainly to generous state subsidies. Electric cars are almost entirely exempt from the heavy taxes imposed on petrol and diesel cars, which makes them competitively priced.
A VW Golf with a standard combustion engine costs nearly 334,000 kroner (34,500 euros, $38,600), while its electric cousin the e-Golf costs 326,000 kroner thanks to a lower tax quotient.
Criticisms of inaction on climate change
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has said there is a 'shocking' lack of Government preparation for the risks to the country from climate change.
The committee assessed 33 areas where the risks of climate change had to be addressed – from flood resilience of properties to impacts on farmland and supply chains – and found no real progress in any of them.
The UK is not prepared for 2°C of warming, the level at which countries have pledged to curb temperature rises, let alone a 4°C rise, which is possible if greenhouse gases are not cut globally, the committee said.
It added that cities need more green spaces to stop the urban 'heat island' effect, and to prevent floods by soaking up heavy rainfall.
Children living in areas with high levels of air pollution, noise and traffic are more likely to be OBESE, study suggests
