Nandkumar M Kamat
For survival of humans, the Homo sapiens, the magic number is 2.1. This number defines the replacement fertility rate. It is the number of births per woman needed to maintain a population’s size. Globally, it is 2.5 at present and by AD 2070 it will fall below 2.1 and further decline to 1.9 by AD 2100.
World over the fertility rates are falling, median age of population is increasing. Median age of the world population is 31 today, up from 24 in 1950. In 2100 it would be 42. Japan would have a very ageing population by AD 2065. It is predicted that by 2100, the world’s population may reach approximately 10,900 million, with annual growth of less than 0.1 per cent – a steep decline from the current rate of 1.03 per cent. Between 1950 and today, the world’s population grew between one to two per cent each year, with the number of people rising from 2,500 million to more than 7,900 million. World population is growing by 1.03 per cent this year and this may drop to just one per cent next year.
At the time of writing this article, the estimated population of the world was 7,900 million. China topped the rank with 1,445 million people followed by India with 1,394 million and USA with 333 million people. China’s population may peak in 2031, while the populations of Japan and South Korea are projected to decline after 2020. India’s population is expected to grow until 2059, when it will reach 1,700 million. Indonesia may reach its peak population in 2067.
The new baby boom will be in Africa in the coming decades. Half of babies born worldwide are expected to be born in Africa by 2,100. Nigeria is expected to have 864 million births between 2020 and 2100, the most of any African country. The number of births in Nigeria is projected to exceed those in China by 2070.
All these numbers become important on World Population Day 2021 which is observed by the United Nations and member countries on July 11 each year. This year, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility will take centre stage as the main theme for the commemoration. To mark this day, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), is organising a webinar from New York on the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility. Leading demographers and population experts will participate in this webinar on July 14 from 9 to 9:45 a.m. EDT (6:30 p.m. in India) to discuss the impact of the pandemic on fertility preferences and behaviours, the availability and use of family planning, teenage marriage, challenges of data collection and more. Viewers in Goa can watch this programme on YouTube on this link-https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N85SsWRJQeI.
The concept note issued by the organisers informs us that :“global fertility had been declining during the past half century, from 4.5 live births per woman to 2.5 births during 1970-1975 and 2015-2020, respectively. In 2019, nearly half of the world population were living in countries with fertility below replacement level. Meanwhile, 40 countries still reported total fertility rates higher than 4.0 births per woman, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, and in the low-income and the least developed countries (LDCs) groups more generally. Since late 2019, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has created a global public health crisis, causing worldwide economic slowdowns and massive social disruptions. While the impact of the pandemic on morbidity, mortality and migration has been relatively well documented, its impact on sexual and reproductive health, including fertility, require a longer period to manifest, and is therefore only beginning to become evident. In addition, the disruption in data collection in many countries also has affected the timely assessment of the impact of the pandemic on access to sexual and reproductive health service and on fertility levels and trends.”
After decades of campaigning to control population, now India is talking about the “demographic dividend” taking credit for a country with a healthy age pyramid required to supply the necessary manpower for economic development. However there have been serious concerns about poor health of mothers and children, malnutrition, hunger, poverty, diseases, and new problems of drastic fall in normal Indian male sperm count, impotency and increase in female infertility. There are other serious social issues such as gender inequality and ‘male’ or “son preference” at birth.
COVID-19 is suspected to impact the male fertility and reduce the sperm count. Therefore, the July 14 UN webinar is very important because the panellists will discuss the following questions- What are the key factors and theoretical considerations that we need to bear in mind in assessing the fertility impact of the COVID-19 pandemic? What are the key mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic affects fertility preferences and behaviours? Can we draw on lessons from previous pandemics/ epidemics and economic crises? What do the initial data tell us about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility? How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the use of family planning? How has it affected teenage marriage, unintended pregnancies, unsafe abortions, adolescent fertility, and overall fertility? The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected data collection in many countries. To what extent does this affect the assessment of its impact on fertility and other sexual and reproductive health determinants?
I appeal to interested readers especially doctors and teachers, medical social workers to view this panel discussion on You Tube. The new threat of Zika virus impacting pregnant women in Kerala during the pandemic also needs to alarm us in Goa because Aedes egypti, the mosquito responsible for spreading dreaded Zika, is fast proliferating everywhere.